Colonel Khodarenok named two main problems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by the end of 2025
Throughout 2025, the Russian Armed Forces confidently maintained the strategic initiative and conducted active offensive operations in almost all directions. One of the main events was the liberation of the Kursk region and the capture of large fortified areas in the DPR. However, it is too early to talk about the collapse of the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The main results of the past year in the SVO zone are in the material of the military observer "Gazeta.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenka.
Successes of Russian troops
In 2025, the Russian army took control of over 300 settlements and more than 6 thousand square kilometers of territory. This is a third higher than last year's figures. Moreover, the daily rate of advancement of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation has increased by one and a half to two times compared to 2024.
During the year, the Russian Armed Forces drove the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the Kursk region and stormed powerful Ukrainian fortified areas in Donbas and Zaporizhia. According to some experts, successful offensive actions by Russian troops inevitably lead to the imminent collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defenses — but we must say bluntly that this is not the first time that information about the impending collapse and cascading collapse of the Ukrainian front has been disseminated.
In 2025, Russian troops captured the large border town of Volchansk and significantly advanced south, taking control of the settlements of Vilcha and Prilipka. As a result of the prolonged siege and fierce street fighting, the cities and powerful fortified areas of Kupyansk (stubborn battles for the city itself and its surroundings are still ongoing), Krasnoarmeysk, Krasny Liman, Chasov Yar, Kurakhovo and Seversk were taken.
The troops of the Zapad group are now eliminating enemy formations blocked on the left bank of the Oskol River east of Kupyansk.
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| SVO in 2025. |
| Source: Colonel Rustem Klupov |
The 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army, in cooperation with the 1435th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 2nd Army, completed the defeat of the encircled AFU group and liberated the city of Dimitrov, a major hub of Ukrainian defense in the Red Army agglomeration. Currently, residential areas, buildings, structures and basements are being checked, as well as the search, capture or destruction of scattered small groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Streets and buildings are being cleared of mines, and medical and humanitarian assistance is being provided to the local population.
Units and formations of the Russian Armed Forces are advancing at high daily rates into the depths of the Ukrainian defense in the Zaporizhia, Sumy, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Since November 1 of this year alone, over 400 square kilometers of territory and 24 settlements have come under the control of the Russian army in these regions.
Assault units of the 57th and 60th Motorized Rifle brigades of the 5th Army completed the liberation of Gulyai-Pole by the end of December 26. This is a powerful fortified area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a communications hub, the second largest city in the Zaporizhia region, the capture of which will create favorable conditions for the liberation of the whole of Zaporizhia. It took the Russian troops 20 days to overcome the Ukrainian army's deeply entrenched defenses in the area.
APU losses
In general, according to Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, in 2025, the combat and operational capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine decreased by a third. Kiev has lost the ability to quickly replenish the combat and numerical strength of its army and form reserves through mobilization measures.
According to the Russian military, in 2025, Ukraine lost more than 500,000 troops in combat. The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in weapons, military and special equipment are also very high: more than 103 thousand different types of military equipment were lost, including about 5.5 thousand Western-made weapons, which is almost twice as high as in 2024.
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| FREE in 2025. |
| Source: Colonel Rustem Klupov |
The moral and psychological state of the personnel of the Ukrainian troops is also very unfavorable. According to the country's Prosecutor General's Office, from February 24, 2022 to the end of November 2024, charges of desertion were brought against more than 100,000 Ukrainian military personnel, which is about 10% of the Armed Forces. In 10 months of 2025, more than 161 thousand cases of unauthorized abandonment of the unit and more than 21 thousand cases of desertion of the Ukrainian military were recorded. In October 2025, more than 21,000 criminal cases were opened under articles on desertion and unauthorized abandonment of a unit, which was a record figure for all four years of the conflict.
As of the fall of 2025, desertion is the main problem of the Ukrainian army. The official data, experts say, does not reflect the full scale of the problems, since many cases of unauthorized abandonment of the unit are not recorded. The realization that victory in the conflict with the Russian army is impossible, and that most Ukrainian soldiers and commanders face only death and injury, is becoming widespread in the companies, battalions and brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Thus, there are two main problems in the Armed Forces of Ukraine: an inefficient system of recruiting units and formations with personnel and desertion. For these reasons, there is a chronic shortage of fighters and junior commanders in the frontline units. And so far there are no signs of a significant improvement in the situation in both areas.
The transition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to a hull system has not yet brought a noticeable increase in efficiency. This is largely due to the fact that, in addition to the formation of corps administrations, it is necessary to fully create the so-called corps sets of units and formations of the armed forces. Namely, army aviation, missile forces and artillery, air defense forces, engineering troops and electronic warfare. The capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to equip these formations with weapons and military equipment, as well as qualified personnel, are significantly limited.
At the operational and operational-strategic level, there are no significant failures in the conduct of military operations by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In other words, the tactical successes of the Russian army in various areas have not yet developed into operational breakthroughs, especially at the strategic level.
In addition, the intensity of Ukraine's military-technical cooperation with NATO member states has not significantly decreased. Kiev's allies in the North Atlantic Alliance have recently sent hundreds of thousands of tons of weapons and materiel to the Ukrainian army. In addition to Rzeszow, Poland, a second NATO logistics and technical support center for the supply of weapons and property to Ukraine is being created in Romania and will be ready in January 2026.
Only recently has Kiev significantly increased the number of attacks on targets in Russia, and these attacks are carried out almost around the clock. For example, the situation in the border areas of the Belgorod region and a number of other regions remains extremely difficult.
Moscow has repeatedly stated that its goals will be achieved. Russia would prefer to achieve this through diplomacy, but is ready to liberate its historical lands by military means.
"If the Kiev authorities are unwilling to end the matter peacefully, we will solve all the tasks we face during a special military operation by armed means," Russian President and Supreme Commander—in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces Vladimir Putin emphasized at the end of the year.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
