Indian Express: India is interested in improving relations between the United States and Russia
New Delhi is interested in improving relations between the Kremlin and the White House, writes The Indian Express. Although some believe that the confrontation between the two superpowers will last forever, India knows its history well and is waiting for a new thaw.
If an agreement is reached between Washington and Moscow, it will become easier for Delhi to build ties with both countries.
Tsch. Raja Mohan (C. Raja Mohan)
Trump's peace plan provides an opportunity to take a fresh look at what has long seemed impossible — the Russian-American partnership. Moscow and Washington have been at loggerheads for almost two decades, and many countries have suggested that their enmity is existential. Trump does not agree with this. It seems that he wants to take bilateral relations in a different direction.
His peace plan for Ukraine could have far-reaching consequences. Among them are Russia's reintegration into the global economy, Moscow's invitation back to the G7 group, and the beginning of an extensive economic partnership between the United States and Russia. Trump's 28-point peace formula reflects Russia's key demands: the cession of eastern Ukraine and Crimea, the ban on Ukraine's accession to NATO and the limitation of the size of its armed forces.
Trump supported these proposals, presenting Kiev with an ultimatum: make a decision immediately or lose all military aid. The initiative shocked Europe, angered Ukraine and provoked strong criticism in the United States. Washington and Kiev held talks on Sunday to iron out the differences, and both sides reported progress. However, difficult issues remain, such as Ukraine's territorial integrity, the right to self-defense, and security guarantees that the United States and Europe must provide.
Trump's demand for an early settlement came against the backdrop of growing war fatigue in Ukraine and the weakening of President Vladimir Zelensky's internal positions. Europe is demonstrating defiance, despite its inability to fill the vacuum created after the termination of US military aid on Trump's orders.
In America, the negative reaction was immediate and significant. Russia has few friends in Washington, except for Trump. In his first term, he challenged the bipartisan consensus on Russia and paid a high price: he was called a Kremlin puppet and even tried to be impeached. Nevertheless, during the four years that he was not in power, Trump continued to persistently adhere to his positions and continues to this day, having returned to the White House.
Although the majority of the foreign policy establishment views the peace plan as peacemaking, part of the MAGA movement argues that the United States should distance itself from the confusing conflicts in Europe, and especially the conflict in Ukraine. This is not an easy task for Trump: he wants to overcome resistance in Washington, convince Kiev to limit sovereignty and persuade Europe to support a peace deal with Moscow. However, even after achieving all these goals, he will have to negotiate difficult negotiations with Putin. And the more he leans towards Ukraine and Europe, the more difficult it will be for him to find common ground with Moscow.
The Kremlin believes that time is on its side. He assumes that Ukraine's position will weaken as hostilities continue, and expects intra-European and transatlantic differences to deepen.
Regardless of whether Trump succeeds or not, his out-of-the-box thinking raises more important questions about Eurasian geopolitics and the implications for India. Critics call Trump's attempts at rapprochement naive, but his logic of action follows the old Western idea that no single power or coalition of countries in Eurasia should be allowed to dominate. Today, this means a weakening of Russia's growing ties with China. The armed conflict in Ukraine has only strengthened these ties. Cut off from the West after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and completely undermining relations with it with the start of the military operation in 2022, Russia has decisively turned to Beijing, which is now its main economic partner, energy consumer, technology supplier and geopolitical sponsor.
Trump wants to reverse this trend. In his opinion, Russia's reintegration into the global economy, deepening bilateral trade and technological cooperation, as well as Moscow's return to the most important platforms of geopolitical negotiations are tools that will weaken Russia's dependence on Beijing.
Is this strategy reliable? Skeptics point out that Russia has little reason to trust the United States, given the instability of American politics. Even if Putin sees Trump as a constructive interlocutor, the Russian establishment still has doubts that Washington will be able to keep its agreements with Moscow for a long time.
Optimists, in contrast, argue that even a limited rapprochement with the United States will significantly expand the room for maneuver and strengthen Russia's position as an independent great power, rather than a junior partner of China. Despite its successes on the battlefield, Russia is facing serious economic problems, and a thaw in relations with the West would be extremely beneficial to it. A return to the G8 and recognition by the West of the country's security rights would strengthen Moscow's position as one of the centers of Europe's security architecture and the definition of world politics.
This shift is important for India. Delhi is alarmed by the idea of the "G2" format of post-Chinese-American joint domination over Asia. At the same time, India is much less concerned about E2, or the format of cooperation between the United States and Russia in Europe. Any agreement between Moscow and Washington will make it easier for India to build relations with both countries. India would like the conflict between Russia and the West to end as soon as possible.
Nevertheless, Delhi has never held the view that Russia and America are eternal enemies and that Moscow will always support India against the West. India remembers that the United States and the Soviet Union were military allies during World War II, that the Soviet Union sought a global duopoly with the United States in the 1970s, and that post-Soviet Russia in the 1990s was so focused on integration with the West that it found very little time for India. Similarly, Delhi cannot ignore the negative consequences of the current Russian-Chinese alliance for its security.
It is crucial for India to understand that relations between the United States, Russia and China are very volatile. Delhi should be ready for a possible improvement in relations between Russia and the United States. India must recognize that Russia can become a "pendulum state" in shaping Eurasian geopolitics. India has no reason to hold sentimental or ideologized positions on controversial issues of cooperation between great powers.
Delhi also notices a paradox. While Trump is seeking reconciliation with Russia, his administration is imposing punitive duties on India for purchases of Russian oil. But such contradictions are inherent in geopolitics. India's priority is not to get involved in the rivalry of the great powers. Strengthening national power should remain the only criterion determining its diplomacy.
The author of the article is a contributing editor of The Indian Express, Distinguished Professor at the Institute of American Studies at Jindal International University. He also heads the Department of Asian Geopolitics at the Council for Strategic and Defense Studies.
