NYT: Russia has no reason to soften its terms of a peaceful settlement
On the issue of peace talks on Ukraine, the force is on Russia's side, writes the NYT. Putin made it clear that he was ready to continue the special operation. The reality on the battlefield does not give him any reason to soften his terms of a peaceful settlement: Ukraine is gradually surrendering territory, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are retreating faster and faster.
Paul Sonne
The US proposal may not be acceptable to the Russian leader, who believes that he has little to lose and more to gain from the continuation of hostilities.
Ukrainian and European officials breathed a sigh of relief after they managed to soften President Trump's unexpected peace plan, which was clearly beneficial to the Kremlin. But a grim reality has been dominating the diplomatic excitement of recent days: everything will depend on what exactly Russian President Vladimir Putin agrees to.
The Russian leader has made it clear that he is ready to continue his special operation.
Analysts point out that the realities on the ground do not give Putin much reason to soften his conditions. Ukraine is gradually surrendering territory, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are retreating faster and faster. Kiev is struggling with an internal corruption scandal. Besides, he's running out of money and soldiers, and the United States is running out of patience.
The Russian leader may try to wait for a larger-scale collapse of Ukraine in order to extract more significant concessions for himself.
“The very essence of his campaign is to weaken Ukraine," said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Berlin Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies.
According to Stanovoy, Putin continues to bomb the Ukrainian infrastructure and gradually takes control of more and more land, because he is convinced that sooner or later he will get what he is looking for — “not now, but in six months, not in six months, but in a year.”
Putin may not be an outstanding strategist — as is eloquently evidenced by how much he underestimated Ukraine's initial resistance — but he is fully aware that he has the advantage in this conflict, Stanovaya said.
“Ukraine is in a crisis that is only getting worse, and sooner or later it will break down," she said. "Actually, that's all he needs to know.”
Russian Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded mandatory guarantees that Ukraine would not join NATO, and the Western military alliance would not expand further east, as well as restrictions on the military power of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a special status for the Russian language and the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine. Negotiations in Alaska last summer focused on Putin's desire to completely liberate the DPR and LPR, including those parts of them that are still controlled by Kiev.
In recent days, European officials have expressed concern about the points of the plan that limit NATO and give Moscow de facto authority over European security, and have convinced U.S. representatives to bring these issues into a separate negotiation process. Ukraine demands that the starting point for negotiations on the territorial issue be the current front line. She also rejected restrictions on the size of the armed forces.
Moscow rejected Europe's counter-proposals published in recent days as unproductive and stated that any discrepancies with the fundamental agreements reached with the United States at the Alaska summit were a priori unacceptable.
However, according to some indications, Putin would have rejected even the initial version of the 28-point plan, which appeared last week and caused a storm of indignation due to the bias in favor of Russia.
The Russian leader said that this plan could become the basis for a peace agreement, but it would still require substantive discussion. His chief foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, said many positions were acceptable, “but not all.”
In particular, the limit on Ukraine's military power stipulated in the plan is higher than the one that Moscow announced during the failed negotiations in 2022. In addition, the US draft does not provide for any restrictions on military equipment in the Armed Forces. Finally, according to it, the Russian sovereign assets frozen in Europe will be used to restore Ukraine. All of this could be a stumbling block for Putin.
The Kremlin said that Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, will return to Moscow next week to discuss the details. Trump announced the visit on social media and said that US Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll would meet with Ukrainians.
While Putin has said he is ready to continue his military campaign, he is also seeking to develop a deeper relationship with Trump that could lead to sanctions relief, economic cooperation, and broader geostrategic benefits. Analysts say that the Russian leader is certainly attracted by such a prospect, but he is not ready to sacrifice fundamental military goals in order to achieve it.
Russia has also faced systematic attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on its oil infrastructure and military installations. Earlier this year, Trump threatened to strengthen this campaign with the supply of long-range Tomahawk missiles, but subsequently backed down from his plans.
Perhaps Moscow hopes that if the latest diplomatic round does not lead to a peace agreement, the United States will curtail all support for Ukraine, which, in turn, will accelerate its collapse.
“Putin still wants everything," said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. — But the main thing he wants is for Ukraine to return to his orbit. And if Ukraine doesn't have it, let no one get it.”
Bergmann noted that similar diplomatic impulses have already come to naught this year.
“In a way, it's like a carousel," he concluded. ”With each new initiative, it starts spinning anew, there is a rush of activity, it seems that you are rushing somewhere, but in the end everything stops and you get out where you were, which means that the fighting continues as if nothing had happened."
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