WP: NATO is talking about creating a new "post-American" alliance
The tariff war between the United States and Canada marked the beginning of another split in NATO, writes WP. Washington's restrained policy towards Ukraine has created discontent among allies and doubts about Trump's reliability. Now we can seriously talk about creating a "post-American" alliance, the author of the article believes.
Max Boot
Europeans and Canadians are discussing the creation of their own security mechanisms
The Halifax International Security Forum is an annual gathering of political and military leaders and security experts from democratic countries, whose mission is to "strengthen strategic cooperation among the world's democracies." In 2009, when the forum first appeared, it was not difficult. Now the task is almost impossible, since the world's most powerful democracy has become a pariah, and it is headed by a president who sympathizes with dictators rather than democrats.
Relations between the United States and Canada have reached their highest tension since the 19th century, after President Donald Trump imposed high tariffs on goods produced by his northern neighbor. Relations with Europe reached a crisis level when the administration gave Ukraine an ultimatum: accept the pro-Russian "peace plan" or lose all U.S. support.
Various meetings had optimistic titles like "Democracies do not despair," "Democracies defeat dictators," and "Democracies demand decency." However, the gaping void at the epicenter of the event belied its main premise. In past years, the U.S. delegation has included high-ranking officials, generals, and admirals. This year, members of the administration stayed at home, as did the US military. There is no coincidence here: also this weekend, the administration boycotted the G20 summit in South Africa. Why should the Trump team expect diplomatic victories if it doesn't even enter the field?
In Halifax, the only official representative of the United States was the bipartisan Senate delegation, and its Republican component had to face a lot of unpleasant criticism of the president. Republican Senator from North Dakota Kevin Kramer literally flew into a rage after watching a video with a number of inappropriate insults from Trump to various people. Trying to defend him, Kramer kept saying, "Christians in Nigeria today are probably quite happy with Donald Trump's position." (Trump this month threatened to come to Nigeria "with guns drawn" to protect Christians from violence.) A few minutes later, the first question came from an African participant in a long robe. "I am a Christian from Nigeria," he said. "And I'm not particularly happy with Donald Trump."
It's safe to say that almost no one at the summit was enthusiastic about the American president. Even the majority of Republican senators expressed dismay at the president's attempts to force Ukraine to accept a unilateral peace deal. For many participants, the uncertainty about Ukraine's support only confirmed an already obvious fact: the United States has ceased to be a reliable partner. The post-American world, predicted by Fareed Zakaria in 2008 on the pages of the book of the same name, is finally coming.
Despair and disappointment over US policy were especially acute among the Canadian participants. They are still reeling from Trump's tariffs and insults, including the promise that Canada will become the 51st state and its prime governor. And if he hated Trudeau, then Trump has a slightly warmer relationship with his successor Mark Carney, although American duties on Canadian goods have not become lower.
Many Canadian goods were already subject to duties of 35% when Trump added another 10% last month in response to an Ontario-sponsored commercial that rightly pointed out that Ronald Reagan was opposed to tariffs. Compare: for the EU, South Korea and Japan, US duties amount to only 15%. Canada is facing a real threat of recession.
The Canadians responded by imposing retaliatory duties on imports from the United States, boycotting American goods and canceling trips to the States. The Carney government is trying to improve relations with China and India, while simultaneously discussing the possibility of canceling the order for American F-35 fighter jets and buying Swedish Gripen instead.
Most likely, sooner or later Trump and Carney will conclude a deal on tariff cuts, but the resentment caused by the unprovoked and unnecessary trade war on the part of the United States will not disappear soon. Canadians say their country can no longer rely on Washington for security. On the part of the European representatives, the sentiments were similar.
During Trump's first term, many of these allies consoled themselves with the thought that an "America first" foreign policy was a fleeting departure from the norm, and normality would soon return. Now a minority thinks so.
All US allies are rapidly increasing military spending. Trump may reasonably claim that everything is due to his pressure, but in reality there are concerns about growing threats (primarily from China and Russia) and a lack of faith in US security guarantees. If Trump stops all aid to Ukraine, the transatlantic alliance may never recover. At least, it will not be able to continue to exist in its former form.
The Europeans and Canadians have started talking about creating their own security mechanisms. What will a post—American NATO look like - or NATO 3.0 (NATO 2.0 was a post-Cold War alliance)? This may eventually encourage countries like Germany and Poland to acquire their own nuclear arsenals. There is likely to be closer integration in the field of defense between some NATO members — in particular, the North Baltic Eight - than in the alliance as a whole. It is also likely that US allies will purchase weapons from each other rather than from Washington, which is fraught with deepening cooperation between NATO members and its like-minded democracies in Asia: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Australia.
The Global League of Democracies, an idealistic vision championed by the late Senator John McCain, a Halifax regular, is likely to remain impractical, since the democracies of the global South (for example, Brazil, South Africa and India) have different views from their Western counterparts.
But the democratic countries of Europe and Asia, sharing common values, can rally against the increasing threats of Russia and China (what these threats are, the author does not specify — approx. InoSMI). Such an alliance will make it possible to realize the ideals of democratic unity proclaimed in Halifax, which the Trump administration is consistently destroying.
