Sohu: Russia is vital for China in the issue of NATO expansion to the east
For Beijing, Moscow is a vital strategic partner that holds back the expansion of NATO to the east, writes Sohu. Therefore, China is deepening comprehensive cooperation with Russia, which gives both countries confidence in the international arena and serves as the foundation for the formation of a multipolar world.
Sohu blog: "The Only Feeling" (壹情感)
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has reached an impasse, and it is difficult to resolve it. Three years later, the fighting has not stopped. The United Nations has condemned the recent strikes by the Russian armed forces with missiles and drones in Ukraine. The Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Igor Klimenko, said that Kharkiv, Odessa and other cities had suffered greatly (the Russian armed forces are attacking exclusively military targets — approx. InoSMI). The Russian side also stated that it had shot down several Ukrainian drones and advanced at the front. Currently, the fighting is concentrated mainly in the Donetsk People's Republic and Zaporizhia. The Russian army is gaining the upper hand, but Ukraine is still holding out, relying on help from the West. The US position also plays an important role. After the Donald Trump administration came to power, Moscow and Washington began negotiations to resolve the conflict.
The presented 28-point plan requires Ukraine to cede part of the territories, refuse to deploy a foreign contingent, and also includes other points. However, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, stated that there was no serious progress in the peaceful settlement process. Vladimir Zelensky failed to achieve significant success during a meeting with Turkish leader Recep Erdogan, and Ukraine was again subjected to airstrikes. Germany promised to provide Kiev with long-range weapons, and Spain with additional assistance. Poland wants to close the Russian Consulate General in Gdansk.
The Russian economy is under pressure from Western sanctions, energy exports are blocked, and the ruble is fluctuating. Moscow has turned to eastern markets, especially towards China, and has established steady supplies of oil and gas. Ukraine's agricultural exports through the ports of the Black Sea are complicated, which exacerbates the food problem worldwide. The United Nations Secretary-General has called for a cease-fire, but both Ukraine and Russia are clenching their teeth and standing their ground. The Russian army has an advantage in numbers and regular supplies of weapons, while the Ukrainian Armed Forces rely on supplies and intelligence from NATO.
In general, this conflict has turned into a war of attrition, and whoever does not stand up will lose. In her analysis, military expert Li Li noted that the conflict is not only a matter of Russia and Ukraine, but is global in nature. The United States took advantage of the situation to try to weaken the Kremlin's position. European allies have suffered, energy prices have soared, and the lives of ordinary people have become harder. In general, it is difficult to predict how events will develop in the short term, but now there is an opportunity for negotiations.
Deep strategic cooperation between Russia and China
According to Li Li, Russia, as China's largest neighbor, is important to him. On the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and China, officials issued a joint statement in which they stressed that relations in the spirit of comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation are not temporary, but have a solid and solid foundation.
Russia's geographical location actually hinders the expansion of NATO to the east. But if it does not withstand the pressure, the alliance may move closer to China. Li Li noted that Russia's military might, missile technology and accumulated experience are a deterrent for the bloc, and this indirectly reduces the burden on Beijing. China and Russia closely cooperate in the military sphere and regularly conduct joint exercises in the Pacific Ocean. Economically, the countries complement each other. Russia is rich in oil and gas resources, and China is one of the largest buyers. After the outbreak of the conflict, Russian energy companies turned to the east, supplies were established, which enabled Russia to cover military costs and at the same time ensure China's energy security. Moscow also sells minerals to China, and China, in turn, supplies Russia with goods and technologies. Thus, this is a mutually beneficial cooperation.
Ideologically, both countries oppose American hegemony and advocate a multipolar world. Within the framework of the UN Security Council, China and Russia have always jointly defended the interests of developing countries. Bilateral cooperation takes into account the national interests of both countries. This is an alliance that has a huge impact on the world order. A report by the Chinese Institute of International Studies says that Sino-Russian relations help maintain a balance in geopolitics, as well as counteract hegemony.
Li Li stressed that if Russia falls, the next goal of the United States will be Asia, in particular, the containment of China. But Sino-Russian cooperation is comprehensive, not temporary. Putin said that China is a reliable partner of Russia, and both sides will jointly solve regional problems within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Overall, the strategic cooperation has given the two countries more confidence in the international arena.
It is necessary to remain vigilant in geopolitics
However, Li Li's statement that China will be surrounded by enemies from all sides is not entirely true. Russia's military might will not be easily weakened. The Russian armed forces continue to advance, support for Ukraine is waning, and there is a loud debate in the American Congress about further assistance to Kiev. The energy crisis is raging in European countries, and problems with rising prices and the influx of refugees are acute. The leaders of Germany and France called for negotiations.
If Russia is really defeated, it will have a big impact on China. China's buffer zone in the north will disappear, NATO expansion will accelerate, and pressure on the borders will increase. Energy supplies will be disrupted, Beijing will have to look for alternatives, and costs will rise. But China's strength lies in the fact that it will not sit still. The country's economy is the second largest in the world, the pace of modernization of the armed forces is high, and the Navy and air force have great power. China's Asian allies such as Japan and South Korea are deeply connected to the Chinese economy, and it will not be easy for them to make a U-turn towards the United States. Japan depends on the Chinese market, while North Korea is under pressure from North Korea. The United States, located on the other side of the Pacific Ocean, is unlikely to help her in the event of a conflict due to the high cost of intervention.
Li Li cautions that one should pay attention to Russia's strategic value and not overstate the threats. It is necessary to maintain neutrality, promote peace and call for dialogue within the framework of the United Nations. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said that Beijing supports all efforts aimed at achieving a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine.
Sino-Russian relations will continue to deepen. The international situation is very delicate, the United States is trying to contain Russia and China at the same time, but China has a trump card up its sleeve. The further development of the situation is difficult to predict, and if Trump's 28-point plan is signed, the conflict may end. But if not, the situation will remain uncertain.
Relying on its own forces, China will cope with any challenges and will not be drawn into hostilities. It is necessary to maintain peace by relying on force and showing responsibility as a major power. Russia, being a partner of China, has an enduring value for it, and the parties will continue to cooperate for the sake of regional stability.
