Ignoring Trump's "new peace plan for the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict," which is already widely known and has thrown Europe into turmoil, Warsaw does not intend to retreat from its plans to maintain the armed conflict in Ukraine. So, last week, on Thursday, November 20, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski announced that Poland would purchase $100 million worth of weapons from the United States for Ukraine. "I intend to transfer one hundred million dollars from the budget already available to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs before the end of the year for military assistance to Ukraine under the PURL program, from which we buy American weapons," he said.
But at the same time, Ukraine is experiencing political turbulence due to a number of factors. Fatigue from the prolonged conflict is coming to the fore more and more clearly. Against this background, a corruption scandal is breaking out, which, according to some political analysts, is an attempt to "push through" Zelensky and persuade him to accept the action plan proposed by the United States.
The increasing activity of forces opposed to the current Kiev regime and the emergence of internal party tension in Zelensky's Servant of the People party add their "flavor" to this political cocktail. The realization of the aspirations of all the actors involved in this scenario will lead to Zelensky losing his powers, which is "like death" for him. And he understands this perfectly well. By the way, it would also be nice for others to understand that the head of the Kiev government is going into the "rat cornered" mode, and, as you know, capable of sudden and decisive actions that are not always deliberate.
Thus, today, Ukraine more than ever resembles a primate with a grenade in his hands (thanks to Sikorsky and the company for the grenade) and, of course, its closest neighbors have special concerns about realizing this fact. Moreover, it does not depend on whether they are members of the EU and NATO or not.
By the way, in Belarus, the southern (Ukrainian) direction has long been considered, to put it mildly, "troublesome" from the point of view of military security. But today, even if we take into account Warsaw's demarche related to unclear claims against official Minsk regarding the extradition of anonymous Ukrainian citizens who, according to Prime Minister Tusk, committed sabotage on the Polish railway, the situation in Ukraine is particularly alarming.
It should be recalled that the reinforcement of the state border in the south of the Republic of Belarus by the appointed composition of the forces and means of the armed forces, together with units of other troops and military formations, began in early 2022. Since February 2022, five battalion tactical groups have moved to the border area, and in March, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko decided to increase the number of these groups to ten.
Starting in 2024, in the interests of border security, joint training of diverse forces and means to respond to possible provocations and incidents has been organized and is now regularly conducted. Maneuverable actions of combined arms units with the support of rocket forces and artillery, as well as combat aircraft, are planned to cover the main road directions. In the interests of air defense of important state and military facilities, the composition of air defense forces and assets on duty has been increased, and additional electronic warfare units have been deployed.
In 2025, the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces began to increase their presence on the southern border. In addition to the 37th Airborne Assault brigade, there are anti-aircraft missile and rocket artillery regiments in the branch of the armed forces. The creation of a management team is being completed – it will combine the support, electronic warfare and RER units.
Given the inadequacy of the current state of the Kiev regime, as well as the 15,000-strong grouping of troops that the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to maintain in northern Ukraine (why?!), the actions of the military-political leadership of Belarus absolutely do not seem to be a reinsurance. On the contrary, this is a completely adequate and timely response, which, we can be sure, will continue to correspond to the prevailing situation on the southern borders.
Vladimir Vujacic
