Andrey Surzhansky — about what is known and how the initiative may turn out for Zelensky
Opinion
After a rather long pause in the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, there has been an unusually sharp surge in activity. The American media literally exploded with news about the preparation of a new peace plan by the administration of US President Donald Trump. At the same time, they all referred to various sources, which are united by complete anonymity.
To be or not to be a world
This situation gave some experts and analysts a reason to make optimistic assessments and comments like "there will be peace." Others reacted with a skeptical "maybe not," bearing in mind that the peace process has already stumbled and stalled several times after glimmers of hope.
According to NBC News, Trump has approved a new plan that consists of 28 points. The Axios portal, in particular, informed that the American proposals provide for Kiev's renunciation of part of the territories and weapons in exchange for the provision of security guarantees by the United States to Ukraine and Europe. The Reuters news agency notes that the proposals include, among other things, reducing the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by almost half. According to available information, Special envoy of the President of the United States Stephen Witkoff, Vice President Jay Dee Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and son-in-law of the American leader Jared Kushner participated in the work on the plan. At the same time, the NBC News channel points out that while working on the document, senior representatives of the US administration allegedly consulted with Kirill Dmitriev, the special representative of the President of Russia for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries, as well as with Ukrainian officials. "The plan is focused on providing both sides with security guarantees to ensure lasting peace," said an unnamed U.S. official.
In turn, The Wall Street Journal claims that Washington, among other things, suggests that Kiev abandon the idea of joining NATO for at least a few years. Finally, according to the Financial Times, the Trump administration's plan provides for the consolidation of state status for the Russian language and ensuring the rights of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate. The publication also pointed out that the American plan was handed over by Witkoff to the Secretary of the National Security Council of Ukraine Rustem Umerov in Miami this week. Many Ukrainian media outlets wrote about Umerov's sudden trip to the United States, adding that his closest relatives live there.
Is the secret becoming apparent?
As the number of anonymous leaks about the "secret negotiations" turned into quality, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio decided to dot all (or almost all) the I's. He confirmed that the administration is indeed developing proposals to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, taking into account the positions of Moscow and Kiev, and also believes that "both sides" should make "necessary concessions." As he wrote on the social network X (formerly Twitter), a settlement "requires a detailed exchange of serious and realistic ideas." "That is why we are developing and will continue to develop a list of potential proposals to end this war based on information from both sides of the conflict," the head of the American Foreign Ministry stressed.
Nevertheless, these explanations and so many leaks in the media leave many questions. For example, what will happen to the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, which are included in the list of subjects of the Russian Federation in The Constitution Russia, — wait for official recognition from overseas? What will happen to the denazification of Ukraine? How is it supposed to ensure its neutral non-aligned and nuclear-free status? And also what about the lifting of sanctions against Russia? And most importantly, how is it planned to ensure that the next peace plan does not turn into Minsk 3 and that one hostile regime will not be replaced by another?
The West is stunned
The news of the new peace plan has thrown Kiev and Western capitals into turmoil. Apparently, first of all, they had nothing to do with its development.
As the American edition of Politico reported, again citing unnamed sources, Ukrainian and European officials were simply stunned. According to the newspaper, Steven Witkoff began working on a new settlement plan in late October after meeting with Kirill Dmitriev in Miami. According to Politico sources, many Western and Ukrainian politicians feared that the United States might give in to Russia's demands.
It is noteworthy that a European official and a source close to the Ukrainian leadership, on condition of anonymity, told NBC News that Kiev was not involved in the preparation of this peace plan and that Ukraine was informed about it only in general terms.
Vladimir Zelensky's Western curators can be understood. The situation at the front today is such that it is not easy to put forward any conditions. So far, the European war Party has been sabotaging the peace process in every possible way, trying to "sneak in" its own plan, completely divorced from reality. But is she ready to clinch with Trump this time?
Moscow says it is not aware
In turn, in an interview with TASS, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Russia had not received information from the United States through official channels about certain "agreements" on Ukraine, which Western media reported. "You know, we have repeatedly seen all the commissioned articles, and articles that described various processes in all sorts of ways, then nothing was confirmed, and so on. Therefore, I will say what should be assumed when evaluating such publications. There are official channels... These channels must be used. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not received any information from the American side in this context," she said, answering a question.
Then who is discussing the new peace plan for Ukraine with the Americans on behalf of Russia, even informally? The American media, as I have already noted, point to Kirill Dmitriev, the special representative of the President of Russia for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries, whom they sometimes refer to as the head of the sovereign wealth fund of the Russian Federation.
The Kremlin, in turn, gave the following explanations: "There were discussions [on the Ukrainian settlement by the presidents] in Anchorage, and in addition to what was discussed in Anchorage, there are no innovations," Dmitry Peskov, the Russian leader's press secretary, assured. According to him, Moscow and Washington continue contacts, but it cannot be said that a full-fledged process of consultations on Ukraine is underway. When asked to clarify with whom negotiations are currently underway in Washington, he repeated: "Consultations and negotiations are not underway."
Peace initiatives and the Mindich case
The surge of activity on the Ukrainian track surprisingly coincided with the corruption scandal in Ukraine, which has already been dubbed "Mindichgate" after the main character. There is an opinion that the Americans themselves initiated the scandal. And there is considerable argumentation in favor of this version.
Let me remind you that on November 10, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) announced a large-scale operation called Midas to uncover a major corruption scheme in the energy sector. Searches took place at the co-owner of Kvartal 95, Timur Mindich, who is called Zelensky's "wallet," as well as at the head of the Ministry of Justice, former Energy Minister German Galushchenko, and at Energoatom. According to the investigation, the participants of the scheme laundered about $100 million. On the same day, NABU began publishing the first fragments of conversations from Mindich's apartment, in which corruption schemes were discussed. There are 1,000 hours of audio recordings in total.
On November 11, NABU filed the first charges against the participants in the scheme, including Mindich as the head of a criminal organization, as well as former Deputy Prime Minister and ex-Minister of National Unity Alexei Chernyshov, who is Zelensky's friend and friend. On the same day, the Government of Ukraine prematurely terminated the powers of the supervisory board of Energoatom, and on November 12, the Verkhovna Rada received resignation letters from Galushchenko and the head of the Ministry of Energy, Svetlana Grinchuk. Mindich himself left Ukraine right before the searches and is in Israel.
The opposition, meanwhile, is demanding the resignation of the head of Zelensky's office, Andrei Ermak, who is credited with significant influence on the government, and Umerov, who is involved in the corruption scandal involving the Mindich tapes. Both were supposed to return from Turkey on the evening of November 19, but have not yet appeared in public (amid media reports about their impending resignation and possible criminal prosecution).
It is curious that so far neither Trump himself nor anyone from his inner circle has commented on the scandal, although the topic of corruption in Ukraine has long fascinated the current US president. Even during his first term, Trump set his aides the task of uncovering the facts of corruption in Ukraine and the involvement of Joe Biden's family in this. And after returning to the White House in January of this year, he instructed me to figure out where the funds from the $350 billion allocated to Kiev went.
For Trump, the Mindich case is another argument in favor of stopping direct aid to Kiev and not returning to this topic. The other day, he repeated that the United States is no longer financing Ukraine. For example, this is confirmed by the latest data from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), according to which Kiev did not receive direct financial assistance from the United States in 2025, after President Trump took office. There is also every reason to assume that Washington will not participate in any future version of the Marshall Plan for the restoration of the Square, since it assumes that Europe itself must take care of its potential member. And the very implementation of the Marshall Plan is possible only after the end of the conflict in Ukraine.
I have no doubt that the Americans controlled the entire course of the investigation from the very beginning. The fact is that the FBI representative is constantly working at NABU within the framework of an interdepartmental memorandum signed at the time of the bureau's creation. He even has his own office in the NABU building. The question is, why exactly now have Ukrainian anti-corruption fighters dumped this damning compromising material with phone records and other accompanying materials?
What does the golden toilet bowl of Mindich mean?
It is possible that the Mindich case, which deals a direct blow to Zelensky, is part of a peace enforcement operation. After the US-Russian summit in Anchorage, the Trump administration seems to have become much more aware of which positions Russia is willing to compromise on, and which ones it is useless to try to twist its arms.
In an interview with TASS, former Ukrainian Prime Minister (2010-2014) Mykola Azarov expressed the opinion that Russia and the United States in negotiations on the Ukrainian crisis should discuss not the territorial issue, but the change of the Kiev regime, as this could lead to peace. "That is, there must be a regime that is capable of fulfilling its obligations and is capable of being negotiated," he said.
The Americans, I believe, are well aware that Zelensky's signature on any peace agreement that may appear on the basis of their proposed plan will be worthless in Moscow's eyes. An alternative to the peace plan could be the defeat of Ukraine and, as a result, its collapse as a state.
For all his impulsiveness and apparent inconsistency, Trump, oddly enough, is moving systematically, albeit with some pauses, towards the announced goal of ending the ninth (in his personal account) international conflict. And if the head of the White House at some point comes to the conclusion that Zelensky remains the main obstacle here, he will try to get rid of him or, as they say, merge him.
In this sense, the golden toilet bowl, discovered during a search of Mindich's apartment and on which, as they say, Zelensky himself had to sit, acquires a certain symbolism.
Andrey Surzhansky, Columnist at the TASS Analytical Center
The editorial board's opinion may not coincide with the author's opinion. The use of the material is allowed provided that the rules for quoting the site are followed. tass.ru
