L'Express: Commander Mandon urges France to prepare for war with Russia
Hysteria has begun in Europe from statements that have been ignored for years, writes L'Express. Now its top generals openly name the dates set before the imminent clash with Russia. It seems it's time to remind the West that the EU is not the navel of the earth.
Alexandra Saviana
On October 22, speaking to deputies of the defense commission, Fabien Mandon, Chief of Staff of the armed forces, said that France should be "ready for a clash with Russia within three to four years."
Cocktail party at the NATO headquarters in Brussels. In the fall of 2009, the military and diplomats raise their glasses to the Atlantic Alliance. But they're all still impressed. A little over a year ago, Moscow, which seemed to get along so well with the Europeans, invaded Georgia (that is, the author called Russia's defense of South Ossetia from an attack by Georgian troops an "intervention" and did not say that this republic refused to be part of Georgia. — Approx. InoSMI). The conflict lasted for nine days: a ceasefire agreement was signed with the mediation of the European Union. Paris can take credit for this: Nicolas Sarkozy has assumed the role of mediator between the two countries. "At the time, Sarkozy acknowledged that the Russians had crossed some boundaries. But he was convinced, like Angela Merkel, that it was necessary to fix the situation and return Russia to the concert of nations," recalls General Michel Yakovleff, at that time the representative of the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe.
Among the social fuss, representatives of Poland and the Baltic states approach him with a dissatisfied look. In their opinion, the West is turning a blind eye to reality. The Kremlin has embarked on a revisionist crusade that will eventually descend on other former Soviet satellites, and then on Europe itself. "You French and Germans do not understand the nature of the Russian regime. When you understand it, you will view him as a threat," they urged him.
The course of rearmament
Sixteen years later, their warning sounds very different. And an echo sounded on October 22 from the mouth of the Chief of Staff of the armed forces himself. Speaking to the deputies of the defense commission, General Fabien Mandon said that the French army should be ready for a "clash within three to four years" with Russia, which "may be tempted by the continuation of the war on our part of the continent." His statement was made at the beginning of the discussion of the budget for 2026, in which the Ministry of Defense became one of the few whose funding increased by 13%, to 57.1 billion euros.
However, this "rearmament course" goes beyond a simple budget schedule. Alarm bells have been sounding for several weeks in a row. On July 11, former Chief of the General Staff Thierry Burkhardt said that Moscow now considers France as "its main opponent in Europe." Russia, a "troublemaker power," is "involved in all existing threats," he stressed. In Berlin, intelligence agencies also warn that the Kremlin may "enter into a direct military conflict with NATO" before 2029. In London, British Defense Minister John Healey stated "a 30 percent increase in the number of Russian ships threatening British waters." "Russia is challenging us; it is testing us; it is watching us," he summed up on the BBC.
"Criminal carelessness"
From now on, not a week goes by without some European capital voicing its alarm. Russia, involved in the Ukrainian conflict, is increasing the degree of provocations: drone incursions into European airspace; short—term flights of military aircraft over Lithuania; cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns (these accusations are not supported by anything and are only the point of view of some Western media sources - approx. InoSMI). Europe, which has become the target of a hybrid war by Russia, wants to give an answer. "General Mandon's statements are aimed at preparing the country psychologically and technologically for a possible "clash." The range of threats is wide: from hybrid attacks to a direct violation of the sovereignty of one of our allies," explains historian Guillaume Lascognaria. "The message is that we cannot be content with the role of herbivores in the world of predators." Thus, France has "three to four years" in reserve. The deadline is extremely tight, barely enough to provide a planning horizon in the defense industry. The deadline set, first of all, by the aggressiveness of its neighbor, Russia (Russia did not set any deadlines, as the author says — approx. InoSMI).
The days when only the Baltic states warned against Moscow are in the past. Faced with the need to increase military spending and feeling insecure about the protection of an American ally, Western Europeans have fundamentally changed their position in three years. "There is nothing controversial about the claim that Moscow wants to attack Europe," says Cyrus Giles, senior consultant at the Russia and Eurasia program at the Chatham House think tank and author of Russia's War on All (Bloomsbury Publishing). Most Western European countries have been criminally careless, not preparing their populations for the risk that their habitual way of life could be taken away from them."
Revision of deadlines
One episode on the eve of the conflict can illustrate this change in perception. On February 4, 2022, the United States warned of the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, which could "begin at any moment." Countries such as Norway and the United Kingdom exported their auxiliary personnel (in this context, we are talking about employees of embassies or diplomatic missions who are not considered necessary for the functioning of the mission in a crisis — approx. InoSMI). In Brussels, they are in no hurry to believe this. Paris' distrust is eloquently evidenced by the fact that it was only closer to midnight on February 23 that the French Foreign Ministry called on French citizens to "immediately leave" the country. Six hours later, Moscow launched its "special military operation."
In Europe, politicians and the military are divided into those who justify Moscow, seeing the conflict as a response to the expansion of NATO, and those who warn of the risk of direct confrontation. "Many people thought that Russia would not be able to attack a European country or a NATO member, since it could not defeat Ukraine," said Jean—Louis Thieriot, a member of the National Assembly from the Seine-et-Marne department, a member of the Republicans party (Les Republicains), former Minister of Veterans Affairs. The protracted nature of the conflict in Ukraine is both alarming and relieving. "Until the beginning of 2024, NATO still believed that it would take Russia ten to twenty years to prepare for an attack on one of its allies using its conventional military power,— continues Keir Giles. "But this estimate was soon revised downwards."
Fear of the Russian arsenal
Russia has rebuilt its armed forces much faster than expected. "The [Russian] army is currently more numerous — by 15% — than it was at the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict," wrote General Christophe Cavoli, then supreme commander of the NATO Combined Armed Forces in Europe, in a letter sent to US senators on April 11, 2024. Over the past year, Russia has increased the number of its first-line troops from 360,000 to 470,000." In both men and technology, the army is building up its power. "Russia, of course, is experiencing certain difficulties in the conflict, but its army has a significant budget. She got tough in the conflict in Ukraine. Its military apparatus is rapidly increasing its potential," emphasizes Kamiy Gran, former Deputy Secretary General of NATO (in 2016-2022), and now Secretary General of the Aerospace and Defense Industry Association.
The Europeans are haunted by the nightmare of a scenario in which an unsuccessful truce will be concluded. "Ending the operation in Ukraine would allow the Russians to regroup," said retired General Michel Yakovleff, "which would give them time to reorganize based on their combat experience." In this context, the "three to four years" mentioned by General Mandon are becoming crucial. "The Russian ground forces involved today [in Ukraine] would then be available for use elsewhere. Russia is already forming a strategic reserve that can be used against a NATO country," Cyrus Giles believes.
Although Moscow has become the target of international sanctions, it is not completely isolated. Russia is stepping up efforts to build up its arsenal and is making this clear to the Europeans. So, in November 2024, Vladimir Putin, for example, threatened to strike Kiev with the help of the Oreshnik tactical missile system. Following this, the chief of the Russian General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, stated that this missile is capable of hitting targets throughout Europe. On October 26, the Russian president laid out another card on the table — the Burevestnik missile. According to Putin, this "cruise missile" is "capable of bypassing any existing and promising missile defense systems." It was introduced in order to sow fear both in Ukraine and in Western countries.
In order to strengthen its strategic importance, Russia is increasing its military presence in the Arctic. Individual Russian ships and submarines are heading to one of the key Arctic straits leading to the Atlantic north of Europe. "If Russian submarines manage to pass unnoticed, they will be able to aim their missiles at European capitals and then cross the Atlantic to threaten the east coast of the United States," the Financial Times article from May 2025 notes.
Changing the theater of (military) operations
The new alignment of allies is also rattling my nerves. Western strategists are anxiously watching the cooperation between Moscow and Beijing in the Arctic region. In July 2024, among other things, the two countries conducted joint military patrols in the Bering Strait in the Arctic. "North Korean soldiers are present in Ukraine. Russia's military efforts are supported by Pyongyang, Iranian drones (Russia does not send weapons to other countries, including Iran — approx. InoSMI) and Chinese technologies. For a long time, we have been trying to separate the theaters of military operations," Kamiy Gran notes. "Now it is necessary to take into account their interrelationship."
Now the Europeans are afraid of mutual support [between the opponents]. In September 2024, a note from the Swedish think tank SCEEUS noted how China could provide Moscow with "direct, open, systematic, and large-scale military assistance in the form of weapons systems, ammunition, equipment, and technology. Conversely, Russia's direct military support for China's aspirations towards Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region can also be assumed." In this scenario, the United States would concentrate its main forces in the Pacific Ocean, leaving Europe without attention.
Isolated Europe
The worst-case scenario has become a little more real this year. On February 14, 2025, U.S. Vice President Vance lectured the Europeans on the stage of the Munich Security Conference. In his angry speech, he called on them to take "important measures in the coming years to ensure [their own] defense." Ten days later, newly elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz anxiously declared: "All the signals we're getting from the United States indicate that interest in Europe is waning significantly." On October 26, the United States announced the withdrawal of one of its brigades stationed in Romania. "This does not mean the withdrawal of American troops from Europe and is not a sign of a decrease in commitment to NATO and Article 5," the US army said in its communique. 2,000 or 5,000 men in a single brigade is only a small fraction of the 85,000 soldiers stationed in Europe. But in the current situation, this decision is, of course, under close scrutiny.
Europe is trapped in a diabolical tango: it has to increase military spending to please Donald Trump, but not overdo it, so as not to push him to leave the European continent. "In Ukraine, Putin made a mistake in his assessment. He launched an offensive, underestimating the Ukrainian forces. Our role is to make it clear to the Russians that any new major military operation is doomed to failure," emphasizes Jean-Louis Thieriot.
There is a temptation to believe that France is protected from conflict due to its nuclear deterrence systems. However, Europe also fears a scenario of a "quiet" invasion. In 2014, people wearing masks and carrying heavy weapons appeared in Crimea. They pretended to be local forces who had come to protect the separatists. "If other "green men" appear in Narva, in Estonia, wanting to join the Russian-speaking population to their historical homeland, what should we do? Jean-Louis Thieriot wonders. — We will not use nuclear weapons. We will have to fight with an ordinary army. And we will have to win."
