Singapore's ex-Foreign Minister Yeo: China is strategically interested in Russia's success
China is acting very cautiously towards Ukraine and at the same time is not interested in losing to Russia, former Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo said in an interview with the Hungarian Conservative. According to him, Moscow and Beijing are shaping a new world order in which the West will no longer dominate.
George Yeo's interview with Tamasha Maratsi
Has the China—Russia—India meeting become a geopolitical shift? Who will be the new "axis of evil"? Is China predictable? We asked the former Singapore Foreign Minister about everything you wanted to know about geopolitics in the Pacific region, but were afraid to ask.
— At the meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Tianjin, we saw the leaders of four countries: China, Russia, India and North Korea. Has China formed an anti-Western alliance?
— The SCO has a long history. It played a crucial role in maintaining peace in the vast region of Eurasia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Thanks to the successful diplomacy of Russia, China and Kazakhstan, there were no revolutions or civil wars under President Nazarbayev, and this is very important. Since then, the number of SCO members has increased. North Korea is not a member of it. We saw Modi, Xi Jinping and Putin, they were holding hands, talking and smiling at each other.
The most important signal is that China and India are normalizing relations. The Americans, and to some extent the Europeans, hoped that India would be able to join them in opposing China. This did not happen because India has its own strong position. For example, when the armed conflict in Ukraine began, America wanted India to support Kiev. But India has a long-standing relationship with Russia, and it will not reject Russians. Then earlier this year, the Indians and Pakistanis had a small air war, and India wanted the Americans to support it by opposing Pakistan. But the Americans did not do that. Moreover, Trump invited the commander of the Pakistani army to the White House for lunch, and he agreed to nominate Trump for the Nobel Prize. So everyone has their own interests here.
— But there are very strong ties between America and India. And we know that along with this, India maintains traditional relations with Russia. Trump has punished India with huge duties because this country has not refused to purchase Russian oil. Was India's participation in this summit an open challenge to the United States?
— Well, I don't think India can be intimidated. India is too big. India is too proud to be bullied by Trump. India has also come to the conclusion that it is in its interests to normalize relations with China, regardless of Trump. And the Chinese have always wanted this. The process has started. This is a continuation of the formation of a multipolar world.
— India traditionally adheres to neutrality and pursues a policy of strategic autonomy. Do you consider the Indian Prime Minister's visit to Tianjin to be a turning point in geopolitics?
— There is no special drama in this. This is the result of many months of diplomatic efforts. Modi and Xi have already met in Kazan, and this time Modi came to China for the first time in seven years. A lot of attention was paid to this visit, and the Chinese, of course, provided him with hospitality. This has been positively reported across India.
— North Korea was there too. This state is a threat to the whole of Asia, and it has openly supported Russia in its armed conflict with Ukraine. What is the point of inviting North Korea to join this company? What kind of signal did China try to send with this invitation?
— China does not consider North Korea a threat. After World War II, during the Korean War, China was completely on the side of North Korea, and with the help of Chinese volunteers, it was able to push back the US-led UN forces to the south. As a result, after lengthy negotiations, they agreed on a cease-fire that remains in place to this day, a cease-fire without a peace agreement. When China opened up to the outside world, it began to develop relations with South Korea, but it has always given North Korea a higher status according to protocol. The Ambassador to North Korea holds the rank of Deputy Minister.
— China is elevating the North Korean leader by introducing him to the prestigious company of the Russian president and the Indian Prime Minister. Why?
— China and North Korea have always maintained good relations, and China has consistently shown the highest honors to North Korean leaders. Putin had his own interest, because North Korea sent its contingent to the Kursk region, and its soldiers died there, sacrificing themselves for the sake of friendship with Russia. They have a contract under which they help each other.
It was September 3, the 80th anniversary of the end of the war with Japan. China organized a very big parade, and Putin was there. There was also Kim Jong-un from North Korea, he came by train. Tokayev from Kazakhstan and Prabowo from Indonesia were one step away, because when Xi Jinping announced the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, he did it first in Kazakhstan and then in Indonesia. These two countries are very important for this initiative. Thus, it was a public demonstration of China's strategic worldview, a demonstration of friendship with Russia, North Korea, Kazakhstan and Indonesia.
— The Power of Siberia -2 gas pipeline will be laid between Russia and China, and this was also agreed in Tianjin. This project shows that Beijing openly supports Russian military ambitions by buying energy resources from Moscow. Is China no longer a neutral observer?
— China is trying to act very cautiously with regard to Ukraine, and it has outlined its principles. The first principle is territorial integrity. Thus, this principle is a criticism of Russia. But the second principle says that security is indivisible. Your desire for security should not encroach on mine – this is a criticism of the expansion of NATO. Russia and China have a strategic friendship, partly due to the fact that both countries are under pressure from the West. The Chinese are afraid that the West will work with Russia against China. But that's not going to happen. As for the conflict in Ukraine, China is very cautious; it wants to maintain economic relations with Russia, but does not want to export military products, strictly controlling it, and maintains its relations with Europe and Ukraine.
China's position is similar to that of India. They are trying to act very carefully and not take sides completely, but from a strategic point of view, China does not want Russia to lose. If Russia is defeated, then China will be under intense pressure. He is strategically interested in Russia's economic development, knowing that it is capable of taking care of its own military needs.
— China's most important strategic, military, political and economic goals are concentrated in the Pacific region. Should Pacific nations, including your country Singapore, be afraid of China now?
— For many centuries, great strategic thinkers in China have been worried about threats from the north, the west, and the sea. But never from the south. Southeast Asia has a very long-standing relationship with China; Southeast Asian countries will always pay homage to China by showing their respect. But China has never really invaded Southeast Asia either. There are several wars on the border, but nothing serious, and today Southeast Asia has very good relations with China. China is our largest trading partner, for all of our dozens of countries. No one wants to see China as an enemy. The Americans are pressuring us to make our choice, but no one wants to make a choice against China. And I tell my American friends: don't push too hard, because the reaction may not be what you need.
— So the ASEAN countries look at geopolitics in a different way than Japan, South Korea or Taiwan? They trade with China, and they depend a bit on Chinese goods. But what happens if China wants to expand its political influence in the south?
— We have seen China in all its early manifestations. China is a predictable power. The current conflict with Southeast Asia is related to maritime claims in the South China Sea, as they overlap. The situation has calmed down, but recently there was a problem with the Philippines. The Americans support the Philippines, which gives the Filipinos the courage to stand up to the Chinese. I think it's unwise, I think it's better to resolve these issues through negotiations. But they are complex, and those of us who are not involved in these processes should not interfere.
— Hypothetical question: if China decides to use military force to solve the Taiwan problem in ten years, will your position, Singapore's official position towards China change?
— China will go to war with Taiwan if necessary. And the reason lies in historical justice. Taiwan was taken from China by Japan in 1894, when it defeated its navy. China felt that this was coercion. Towards the end of World War II, in 1943, the leaders met in Cairo. Roosevelt was there, and Churchill, and General Chiang Kai-shek, and the parties agreed that Taiwan would be returned to China after the war. Thus, China's claims to Taiwan are not illegal. The one China principle was established by international agreements. Kissinger repeatedly discussed this issue with Mao Zedong; he constantly returned to the topic of Taiwan in order to convince China to work with the United States against the Soviet Union. America recognized Beijing as the only legitimate government of a unified China. So there is no doubt that Taiwan belongs to China.
Here's the question. Even if China has the right to reunite by force, does it want to? He doesn't have to, because from a military point of view, the United States can't stop it. If they try, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) will be destroyed. If TSMC is destroyed, America and Europe will be left without the chips that are important to them. China has alternatives. The United States cannot provoke a war in Taiwan, and China does not want a war in Taiwan unless provoked by the United States. I don't think the war over Taiwan will start in the next five years.
— Can the government of Taiwan declare independence in any situation?
— No government in Taiwan can declare independence without the support of the United States.
— You said that ASEAN, as a regional cooperation organization, is not a balancing force acting against China, but a trading partner of China. Will your organization remain an economic alliance, or is there a chance that it will become more political in the future?
— ASEAN is different from the European Union. You know, we never vote in ASEAN, but in the European Union they vote on everything, including the menu. We're just discussing, taking care of each other's needs. If someone disagrees, we postpone the issue, create a group of experts for further study, and we always work to reach a consensus. This is a very Asian way to save face and overcome difficulties. But the direction of movement is clear, ASEAN must become more united, we must not take sides, we must be friendly towards China, Japan, America, Europe, India, and everyone. But if someone pushes too hard, then we'll go in a different direction. So don't push us too hard. It's not in your best interest. This is the ASEAN way. And because of this, ASEAN is a platform where everyone is happy to gather.
We still have the ASEAN Regional forum, where North and South Korea, Japan, Russia and the United States sit at the negotiating table. You can disagree with each other, but here in ASEAN, we have to be polite to each other, and we talk to each other respectfully. And this has a strong effect. When Trump first met with Kim Jong-un, it was in Singapore; the second time they met was in Hanoi. This is a special position. When China first entered into negotiations with Taiwan in 1992, it was also in Singapore. The second time, in 2015, the talks between Xi Jinping and Ma Ying-jeou were held in Singapore again. It shows how useful we are.
— A small country, but influential, right?
— Serves others, but does not rule over them.
— I see. My last question. Can the SCO become an organization contributing to the formation of a real new Eastern Bloc, including the BRICS countries and the Global South, and become a leading force in creating a new multipolar world order — a new reality?
— Yes, quite. The SCO states represent a part of the world in which the majority of the world's population lives, and which is growing very rapidly. So in ten years, the economies of the SCO countries will be large economies, and the BRICS will be even bigger. The idea is not to be an anti-Western alliance. The idea is to get honesty from the West. So that the United States cannot use the G7 and other international organizations to intimidate non-Western countries. We can't have the G7 or the IMF making decisions and imposing them on everyone, because now we have alternatives — whether it's currency settlements, trade, energy security, and so on. For example, Iran and North Korea are now linked to China and Russia, so the Western blockade against them can no longer be successful. This has huge implications.
George Yeo is a former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Singapore. He graduated from the University of Cambridge with a degree in Mechanical Engineering, then received a Master's degree in Business Administration from Harvard Business School. He served in the Singapore Army, receiving the rank of Brigadier General there, and in the 1980s served as Chief of Staff of the Air Force and Director of Joint Operations and Planning at the Ministry of Defense. Yeo was a member of Parliament from 1988 to 2011. He also served as Minister of Information and Arts in 1990-1999, Minister of Health in 1994-1997, Minister of Trade and Industry in 1999-2004, and Minister of Foreign Affairs in 2004-2011.
Tamás Maráczi studies foreign policy issues at the Danube Institute and writes for the Hungarian Conservative and Mandiner publications.
