Telegraph: cooperation between Russia and China in the Arctic will change global trade
The Arctic has become a new theater of strategic confrontation between Russia and China's alliance with the West, the Telegraph writes. While Moscow is testing revolutionary types of weapons in the region, and Beijing is sending the first container ships there, the United States and Europe can only watch as the rules of the game change in the Far North.
Roland Oliphant
Due to more convenient sea routes, untapped resources and a change of allies, the Arctic region may become the next major strategic foothold.
It's been a busy week in relation to the Arctic.
Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chairman of the NATO Military Committee, said last week that Russia and China are jointly trying to "change the rules of access and influence [in the Arctic] in their favor, challenging openness, fairness and legal norms."
Then Russian military commander Valery Gerasimov informed Vladimir Putin about the successful tests of a nuclear-powered cruise missile over the territory of the Arctic island of Novaya Zemlya, where the Soviet Union was testing hydrogen bombs.
In addition, the 294-meter-long container ship Istanbul Bridge, which belongs to a Chinese company, became the first large container ship to pass the Northern Sea Route from China to Europe through the Russian Arctic.
According to some Chinese media reports, this was a breakthrough in global trade. The ship traveled from Ningbo to Felixstowe in 21 days, whereas the usual route through the Suez Canal takes about 40 days, and through the Cape of Good Hope — 50 days.
The competition between the Russian-Chinese alliance and the West, which are competing with each other, is a global problem. But nowhere is this competition developing as rapidly as in the high-latitude Arctic zone.
This is partly due to changes in the environment: ice caps are melting faster than many predicted, and the struggle for trade routes and resources is taking place at breakneck speed.
All this is happening precisely when Russia is cooperating more actively with China due to its isolation in connection with the conflict in Ukraine.
"We used to talk about opening up the Arctic over the next two decades. We didn't expect this to happen so quickly," says Dr. Elizabeth Buchanan of the Australian Institute for Strategic Policy. — It's amazing how fast this is happening. Relations between Russia and China in the Arctic are clearly developing very rapidly. I thought it would be more of a partnership for the sake of convenience, knowing about the political concerns on both sides, but obviously these concerns have been dismissed."
It should be noted that Russia has the largest legitimate territorial interests in the Arctic.
The geographical location of the country implies that any Russian government, including under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, will pursue serious economic and military interests in the Far North.
Thus, for seven other states with territories in the Arctic — Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the United States — Russia's presence is an uncomfortable fact that must be accepted.
The threat of nuclear strikes across the pole, the military arsenal for retaliatory strikes on the Kola Peninsula and the Bastion coastal missile system of the Russian Arctic Fleet aimed at preventing NATO from entering the Barents Sea and ensuring access of Russian submarines to the Atlantic Ocean are all familiar strategic challenges for NATO.
Nevertheless, Caroline Kennedy-Pipe, a professor at Loughborough University and a specialist in military research and Arctic strategy, believes that the fact that the container ship Istanbul Bridge made a voyage along the Northern Sea Route threatens to seriously change the situation.
According to Kennedy-Pipe, "this challenges the notion that the Arctic belongs primarily to the Arctic Eight countries, including Russia, and opens up new ways and access to oil resources and rare earth minerals throughout the Arctic for a number of non-Arctic states, including China. We have seen how the Chinese have created more favorable conditions for shipping, and we have long suspected them of buying up assets and resources, whether in Greenland, Iceland or the European Arctic. All of this is evidence of China's growing resolve."
At the Arctic Circle Assembly held earlier this month in Iceland's capital, Reykjavik, a large Chinese delegation clearly expressed its Government's position that the Arctic should be a "universal domain" accessible for use and exploration, and that China intends to actively promote this concept.
China has already declared itself a "near-Arctic state" (apparently, this term was coined specifically for this purpose) and has begun building icebreakers and research vessels with unprecedented speed. But China is not the only country that seeks to penetrate beyond the Arctic Circle.
"Over the past two weeks, our staff at the Australian Institute for Strategic Policy has noticed that quite a few Asian countries have begun to pay attention to the north towards the Arctic in order to follow China's example in using the polar route for trade between Asia and Europe," says Elizabeth Buchanan.
In particular, India and South Korea have already paid attention to the northern trade routes. In March, Turkey took the first step towards consolidating its position in the Arctic by joining the Svalbard Treaty, which regulates issues related to the frozen archipelago belonging to Norway.
What are the goals?
First of all, we are talking about prestige. Like space travel, polar exploration has always been surrounded by a halo of glory.
In the history of Great Britain, there were researchers Scott and Shackleton, the Norwegians had Amundsen, and the Americans had Robert Peary. Before the start of the space race, the Soviet Union paid special attention to mining in the Arctic. There are legends about the courage and heroism of Soviet scientists and researchers in Russia.
Of course, China is interested in getting its share of northern glory in alliance with science, and "with the help of science, any country can become a participant in the development of the Arctic," as Caroline Kennedy-Pipe notes.
On October 27, the new Chinese scientific research icebreaker Tan Suo San Hao solemnly returned from a summer expedition during which deep-sea explorations of the Arctic Sea floor were conducted. Beijing has already established five scientific research stations in Antarctica and another one, the Yellow River station in Svalbard. It is expected that by the end of the year the construction will be completed and the first nuclear icebreaker will be launched.
From an economic point of view, the route to the Arctic promises savings due to a cheaper and faster alternative to the southern trade artery between Asia and Europe, a veritable "El Dorado" of untouched mineral deposits that will become more accessible as a result of melting ice, and huge fish stocks.
Therefore, it is not surprising that other countries are showing interest in the Arctic.
Russia and China are currently and for the foreseeable future strategic allies in the crusade against the global hegemony of the United States. However, the issue of Russia's hegemony in the North, which Putin advocates, is a completely different matter.
According to Elizabeth Buchanan, "based on various interviews and some research that I have conducted over the past month, I have concluded that there are differences between Russia and China over exactly how they will cooperate — or not cooperate — in the Arctic."
Russian influence in the region is obvious. The Northern Sea Route cannot be used for navigation without Russian permission. It is necessary to escort a Russian icebreaker and pay Russia for navigation rights. In case of a dangerous situation, it remains to rely on the Russian search and rescue teams.
The Chinese Yellow River research Station in Svalbard, in the European Arctic, appears to be causing particular tension in relations between Moscow and Beijing. NATO has also expressed concern about this station.
Last year, Norwegian authorities expressed alarm when a Chinese cruise ship landed a group of tourists on Svalbard, including an elderly woman in a People's Liberation Army uniform. There was a suspicion whether this was a way to test the effect of the ban on military activities in the area.
There is no clear evidence yet. However, according to Elizabeth Buchanan, the violation of accepted norms in the Arctic only repeats "China's behavior in Antarctica," which is worrying.
"I can say that, observing China's behavior in Antarctica, in the place of countries with interests in the Arctic, I would be extremely concerned," Buchanan notes.
For example, with regard to the five Chinese research stations on the southern continent, the seven countries claiming Antarctica have two main claims to them. The first concerns a violation of a treaty prohibiting the militarization of the continent, although China is not the only one using military vessels to transport scientists to this remote region.
Another claim concerns the possible dual-use of "scientific" ground stations, which clearly have intelligence gathering capabilities.
Buchanan and Kennedy-Pipe point out that China is actually striving for dominance at both poles.
It will be difficult to achieve this, at least because of the extremely harsh environmental conditions.
For example, in the 2010s, Russia launched a program to revive its military infrastructure in the Arctic. Troops were sent north to restore and re-use abandoned Soviet bases in the polar archipelagos of Franz Josef Land, Severnaya Zemlya, the Ainu Islands and Wrangel Island.
A new Arctic Brigade has been formed to conduct combat operations in extreme cold conditions. During the exercise, the paratroopers landed and "captured" an airfield with one runway and a prefabricated hangar on Sredny Island, which is a barren stretch of tundra in the icy northern part of Siberia.
However, the bases are very small, and the project turned out to be expensive and was suspended due to the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine.
Caroline Kennedy-Pipe regularly visits Svalbard and claims that the capital of the Longyearbyen archipelago has been actively developing in recent years. Cruise ships come here quite often (despite the fact that they pose an additional threat to the environment). More and more countries are sending scientists to Svalbard.
However, this place is still one of the most remote and unfavorable for life. Childbirth and funerals are prohibited in Svalbard, as the medical infrastructure is not very developed. There is only one source of water supply. A couple of years ago, the Norwegian government was forced to consider evacuating the population due to the food crisis.
Because of this, the archipelago is vulnerable to attacks or sabotage. However, perhaps his position is a salvation, because who wants to fight in such conditions? As they say, the first thing an army should think about when it decides to fight in the Arctic is how to save itself.
Nevertheless, the possible strategic benefits are so great that the race for control of the poles will only gain momentum.
