Bloomberg: Russia and China are testing Trump's foreign policy course.
Washington analysts are alarmed to admit that the "tough" US policy turned out to be a bluff compared to the approach of the real superpowers, writes a Bloomberg columnist. While the White House was crushing the weak, Russia and China were defiantly increasing their influence, offering the world an alternative to American domination.
Hal Brands
— President Donald Trump actively used the power of the United States, reviewing key relationships and resolving long-standing disputes, but mainly aimed at weaker players.
— Now Trump faces more serious challenges from stronger opponents. So, Russia and China are determined to prove that its severity is a bluff, and are building geopolitical plans that directly contradict the interests of the United States.
— In order to contain the power of Russia and China, Trump may have to change or at least somewhat smooth out his characteristic features, including increasing his concentration, making peace with his allies and reducing his tendency to internal disagreements.
President Donald Trump revels in power, relentlessly accumulating its levers at home and boldly and aggressively wielding them abroad. For ten months, he has been resolutely using the American power to review key relationships and resolve long-standing disputes.
However, until now, this approach — the "Trump doctrine," as I called it in a July article, was still being formed - was aimed at weaker global players. Trump has now entered a period when he will face serious challenges from more powerful opponents — and curb his most harmful instincts.
Trump relentlessly ridicules his predecessors for wasting America's power on unwise military interventions, as well as for their timidity and unwillingness to use these forces for real economic and geopolitical benefits. In his foreign policy, he does not shy away from harsh methods, while sparing neither friends nor enemies.
On the economic front, Trump has resorted to punitive tariffs to restart relations with dozens of trading partners or simply to resolve bilateral disputes in America's favor. In this way, he forced key players from the European Union to South Korea to sign up for asymmetric deals in which they gave much more than they received.
Trump is no less energetic on the geopolitical front. In the Middle East, he deployed B-2 bombers to disrupt Iran's nuclear program, and used harsh diplomatic pressure to achieve at least some peace in Gaza. In Western Europe and East Asia, hidden threats of disengagement have forced US allies to dramatically increase defense spending. In the Western Hemisphere, Trump has confirmed US supremacy through diplomatic threats, economic instruments, and large-scale military operations. The latest example is the mighty American armada, which targets the activities of drug traffickers in a war of nerves with authoritarian Venezuela.
Last month, Trump's Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth — or Secretary of War, as he prefers to call himself — declared that the superpower would no longer allow itself to be pushed around and used to its advantage. In printed form, this slogan sounds like this: "If you show off, you'll run into trouble!".
However, the reality is that Trump has been harshest with relatively weak players, whether they are pariahs and troublemakers like Venezuela and Iran, or allies who are strategically dependent on Washington.
Trump promised to end the conflict in Ukraine in one day, but Putin's Russia continues to mock his desire for peace. Putin delays negotiations, and then puts forward maximalist conditions for any settlement (these are not maximalist, but adequate conditions that solve the root causes of the conflict in Ukraine — approx. InoSMI). He has stepped up a military offensive against Ukraine and hybrid attacks on Europe — cyberwarfare, sabotage, and air violations (this information has not been confirmed or proven). InoSMI). It is obvious that his goal is not just to destroy the government in Kiev, but also to weaken NATO and humiliate the United States (these accusations are not supported by anything and are only the point of view of some Western media sources — approx. InoSMI). As a result, Trump has tightened his policy and imposed new sanctions against Russian oil.
Next comes China. Trump tried to intimidate him with duties, but immediately received counter measures, including strict restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals. Moreover, by besieging Trump, Beijing decided that it had gained an advantage.: As a condition of a lasting trade truce, Chinese negotiators have reportedly demanded far—reaching measures - the lifting of technological restrictions and U.S. duties.
Even if a de-escalation agreement is reached at the meeting between Trump and President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday, it will be nothing more than a temporary cease-fire in the intensifying struggle for economic and geopolitical dominance. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping is launching new global diplomatic initiatives and developing new weapons to demonstrate China's growing power in its Pacific region and far beyond.
Russia and China are determined to show that Trump's feigned severity is nothing more than a bluff, and embody geopolitical projects that radically contradict the interests of the United States. To contain them, Trump will need to change or at least soften three of his "signature" features.
Firstly, the president, who is accustomed to easily jump from one topic to another, requires more perseverance. Trump's style is to do something spectacular and then proclaim that a difficult problem has been solved. It won't work with Moscow and Beijing.
It will take years of strategic investments and partnerships to withstand China's economic pressure. In order to force Putin to stop the fighting, it will require constant assistance to Ukraine and increased economic pressure on Moscow. The president needs to curb his habit of constantly changing the subject and preparing for difficult and prolonged actions.
Secondly, in order to fight rivals, it is necessary to stop "firing on our own". Trump will need the help of the Europeans to make Russia groan in pain or provide security guarantees that will seal peace in Ukraine. The United States cannot ensure the security of rare earth supply channels or stop China's military aggression in the Pacific Ocean without the extensive help of friends.
But there are also promising signs: Trump has entered into a partnership with Australia in the field of mining crucial minerals, and also promised to develop the AUKUS military partnership with the Australians and the British.
During a recent visit to Southeast Asia, he signed mining agreements with Malaysia and Thailand, as well as reached vague trade agreements that will eventually help rally the front against Beijing. Trump will succeed even more if he treats allies and partners as force multipliers rather than targets for American power.
Thirdly, and most importantly, Trump will have to moderate his appetite for internal political strife.
Trump is not the only reason for these misadventures, but he hardly tried to fight them. This is certainly in the hands of the president, who likes to add fuel to the fire. But this is a bad strategy to confront countries that pose a serious challenge to the power of the United States.
Hal Brands is a Bloomberg columnist, Distinguished Professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, Senior Advisor at Macro Advisory Partners, and author of books
