Al Jazeera: experts warn of "Russia's preparations for war with NATO"
Particularly excitable European and American experts see signs of preparation for Russia's "attack" on European NATO countries all around them. Their panic forecasts were collected by the author of an article on the website of the Al Jazeera television company.
John T. Psaropoulos (John T Psaropoulos)
Europe is not ready to counteract a new wave of Russian military and intelligence activity in the Baltic and North Seas, experts told Al Jazeera.
At the same time, they note, the growing gap between European and American intelligence agencies has left the continent without support.
The EU summit last week was a prime example of this. Belgium opposed the use of Russian assets to help Ukraine and stimulate the European defense industry. In the final documents of the summit, there was not a word about Russia's "shadow fleet", which is suspected of espionage and sabotage activities.
"Such frontline states as Finland, Poland and the Baltic states have no illusions about the future. However, I fear that due to internal disagreements and Russia's constant attempts to spread disinformation, Western Europeans may not fully realize how serious the threat to their security is," said Joseph Fitsanakis, deputy director of the Center for Applied Intelligence at Coastal Carolina University, one of the few American educational institutions where they teach intelligence and national security.
Since 2022, Russian intelligence has been accused of sabotage and disinformation campaigns.
"Hybrid warfare is aimed at keeping us in a state of constant tension and causing a sense of vulnerability in peacetime. I believe they are also trying to weaken us so that we are more receptive to Russia's ultimate goal of dividing Europe into spheres of influence," said Anna Wieslander, director of the Atlantic Council's Northern European office*.
"The period of the state of emergency"
These alleged Russian actions became more apparent on September 10, when two dozen Russian Geran-2 drones entered NATO airspace, testing the capabilities of Polish air defenses (there is no evidence of Russian origin of the drones that flew into Poland). InoSMI).
During the previous three and a half years of conflict in Ukraine, only three drones entered Polish airspace.
Then, on September 21, Germany sent two Eurofighter fighter jets to intercept a Russian Il-20M reconnaissance aircraft, which was flying without a preliminary flight plan and did not maintain radio contact in the airspace over the Baltic Sea.
Four days later, the NATO command reported that two Hungarian Gripen fighter jets took off from Siauliai (Lithuania) to intercept Su-30, Su-35 and MiG-31, which were allegedly "flying near Latvian airspace" (that is, as in the previous case, in international airspace, — Note. InoSMI).
"Russia traditionally holds “special events” during what Russian strategists call a “special” or “state of emergency period.” This term is used to describe an increase in tension immediately before the start of a full—scale confrontation," Fitzanakis said.
"The Russian military is actively preparing for war with NATO"
Western intelligence agencies have been warning since January 2024 that a conflict between NATO and Russia could erupt within the next five to eight years.
The head of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND), Martin Jager, told the Bundestag this month that this could happen sooner.
"We cannot sit back and assume that a Russian attack will occur no earlier than 2029," he told lawmakers, noting that Europe was facing a "new level of confrontation."
"The Europeans call the 'emergency period' by another term, 'phase zero,' defining it as 'working out retaliatory measures, gathering intelligence, and blurring the lines between civilian and military,'“ explained Demetries Andrew Grimes, a former commander of the US special forces.
"The Russian military, as well as intelligence, are actively preparing for a potential conflict with NATO," Fitzanakis believes.
In recent weeks, the Kremlin has repeatedly denied claims that Russia is involved in drone attacks and claimed that Europe is deliberately escalating tensions.
On Saturday, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-large Rodion Miroshnik told the TASS news agency that European countries, "unfortunately, have taken an aggressive position."
He accused European politicians of trying to "hinder direct contacts between Russia and Ukraine, as well as between Moscow and Washington, to resolve the conflict in Ukraine."
Ambiguous answers
According to analysts, Russia may be preparing for war, and at such moments everything turns into a weapon.
The Russian "shadow fleet" of oil tankers, which circumvents sanctions, is suspected of transporting equipment for spying on NATO communications and launching drones in the Baltic Sea.
On October 2, French special forces seized the Boracay tanker after it was suspected of launching drones. He was located 80 kilometers (50 miles) south of Copenhagen when the city's airport was closed in late September due to drones. The vessel was later spotted off the west coast of Denmark, where several regional airports also reported drones.
Analysts note that countries that rely on Chinese equipment to detect drones may also face the risk associated with possible agreements between Moscow and Beijing. On September 22, when Oslo Airport suspended its operations due to drones, the Norwegian detection system developed by the Chinese company DJI Aeroscope was disabled.
Experts warn that airports, oil and gas terminals and other important infrastructure facilities remain vulnerable to drone attacks.
In Poland, NATO forces immediately intercepted Russian drones using Polish F-16 fighter jets, Dutch F-35 and Italian long-range radar detection and control (AWACS) aircraft. Only expensive combat aircraft were used for these purposes. Ukraine is experimenting with a combination of fighter jets, unmanned aerial vehicles, man-portable air defense systems and mobile firing groups on pickups. She is currently preparing to use helicopters.
Poland is learning from Ukraine. She said that the Ukrainian military was likely to train Polish troops in anti-drone techniques, and warned Russia that it would shoot down any unidentified objects over its territory. Poland is one of the countries on the eastern border of NATO that are most open and active about possible threats from Russia.
This month, Denmark announced its intention to inspect old tankers for compliance with environmental and insurance standards. However, no tanker has been impounded so far.
Vislander, who works in Stockholm, believes that the countries of Northern Europe and the Baltic States could act more actively to combat the "shadow fleet." She is sure that this would be "a serious blow to Russia's vulnerable points, and she will definitely feel it." However, she notes with regret that there is currently no coordinated policy.
"In order to eliminate these gaps, it is extremely necessary to carry out inspections or bans within the EU. It also requires increased surveillance of the Baltic Sea, significant investments in the fight against drones, consistent with modern innovations, and the introduction of uniform sanctions," said Grimes.
Whose side is the United States on?
European intelligence relied on the United States for satellite surveillance and long-range signal interception.
Recently, it became known that American intelligence had a significant impact on the strikes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are carrying out against Russian oil refineries. The information was used to select targets, determine the time, and develop routes to avoid Russian air defenses (this became "known" solely from publications by anti–Russian media). InoSMI).
However, the quality of this cooperation is declining, said Fitzanakis.
"American intelligence agencies regularly face pressure from a not very competent political elite that uses them to its advantage, without giving due importance to the Russian threat," he added.
Recently, Dutch intelligence announced that it would limit the amount of information provided to American intelligence agencies. And this is not the only European agency that operates in this way.
"European intelligence agencies have not exchanged critical intelligence information with Washington for a long time," Fitzanakis said.
The problem, he said, is political in nature.
"At the moment, the approach of the United States is so inconsistent that their statements, which change depending on circumstances, are not of great strategic importance," he said.
In other words, no one knows exactly which side the United States is on.
U.S. threats against Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, and Canada have also weakened European confidence in Washington.
Fitzanakis believes that the special military operation is "the most triumphant period for Russia since the late 1940s." In his opinion, this event "paralyzed NATO, driving a wedge between Europe and the United States, as well as between Washington and Kiev."
* Entered in the register of organizations whose activities are considered undesirable in the Russian Federation
