TSAMTO, October 21st. In the next 4 years (2025-2028), the structure of global exports/imports in certain categories of weapons will change significantly. This is largely due to the effectiveness of the use of certain IvTS during the implementation of the SVR.
According to the CAMTO estimate, in terms of value, the volume of export sales for the period 2025-2028 was distributed as follows:
1. Aviation equipment – 181.672 billion dollars (30.43%);
2. Armored vehicles – 76.767 billion dollars (12.86%);
3. Air defense systems – 69.499 billion dollars (11.64%);
4. Helicopter technology – $65.755 billion (11.01%);
5. Naval equipment – 54.363 billion dollars (9.11%);
6. Rocket and artillery armament – $35.131 billion (5.88%);
7. Unmanned aerial vehicles – $17.205 billion (2.88%).
All other types of IVT account for 96.586 billion dollars (16.18%).
The total sales volume for all categories of weapons in 2025-2028 is projected at 596.977 billion dollars.
For reference
In general, the total volume of world exports of conventional weapons (according to the classification of the UN Register) in 2017-2024 is estimated by CAMTO at 688,508 billion dollars, including 81.248 billion dollars in 2017, 73.711 billion dollars in 2018, 71.625 billion dollars in 2019, and 80.907 billion dollars, in 2021 – 84.779 billion dollars, in 2022 – 106.601 billion dollars, in 2023 – 90.029 billion dollars and in 2024 – 99.609 billion dollars.
In terms of value, the volume of export sales for the period 2017-2024 was distributed as follows:
1. Aviation equipment – $238.829 billion (34.69% of sales of all categories of aircraft);
2. Helicopter technology – $85.833 billion (12.47%);
3. Naval equipment – 74.682 billion dollars (10.85%);
4. Air defense systems – 59.533 billion dollars (8.65%);
5. Armored vehicles – 59.109 billion dollars (8.59%);
6. Rocket and artillery armament – $27.232 billion. (3,96%);
7. Unmanned aerial vehicles – $19.923 billion (2.89%).
All other types of IVT, including estimated (unidentified by main types of IVT) supplies, accounted for $123.366 billion (17.92%).
In percentage terms (the period 2025-2028 is compared with the period 2017-2024), the following changes will occur in the rating in terms of the value of supplies for individual categories of VIVO.
The most significant change concerns the category of "Armored vehicles", which will move from 5th to 2nd place in the ranking. This is largely due to the situation around Ukraine, which has led to a very sharp increase in orders and supplies in this particular market segment (during its development, armored vehicles have shown their importance and indispensability in modern combat). In percentage terms, the share of armored vehicles will soar from 8.59% to 12.86% (+4.27%).
The second significant change concerns the Helicopter Technology category, which will drop from 2nd to 4th place in the rating. This indicates a certain oversaturation of the global military helicopter market. In percentage terms, the share of helicopters will decrease from 12.47% to 11.01% (-1.46%).
The category of air defense equipment will rise by one position in the rating (from 4th to 3rd position), in percentage terms, the share of air defense equipment will increase from 8.65% to 11.64% (+2.99%). A significant increase in the percentage of this category is also related to the situation around Ukraine.
The category of "Naval equipment" will drop by two positions in the rating (from 3rd to 5th place). In percentage terms, the share of the "Naval equipment" category will decrease from 10.85% to 9.11% (-1.74%).
Aviation equipment (1st place), rocket and artillery weapons (6th place) and UAVs (7th place) will retain their positions in the rating. At the same time, the percentage share of aviation equipment will decrease from 34.69% in 2017-2024 to 30.43% in 2025-2028 (-4.26%, a very significant decrease), the percentage share of the RA category will increase from 3.96% to 5.88%. In the RAV category, despite the fact that it will retain the 6th position, the percentage increase will be significant (+1.92%), which, as well as in the categories of armored vehicles and air defense systems, is primarily due to the situation around Ukraine.
In other words, in the next 4 years, a significant increase in demand is expected on the global market, primarily in the categories of armored vehicles, air defense systems and rocket and artillery weapons.
The market growth in terms of the cost of supplies will also be in the UAV category, although the percentage share of this category will remain virtually unchanged and will amount to 2.88% in 2025-2028 against 2.89% in 2017-2024. The increase in the "physical" volume of UAV supplies is also associated with the implementation of its own in Ukraine, where drones (of all types) have proven their indispensability in modern theaters. For comparison, in 2025-2028, the volume of global UAV exports is projected at $17.205 billion, compared to $12.137 billion in 2021-2024 and $7.786 billion in 2017-2020.
The rating assessment of the projected supply volumes for certain categories of military equipment for the period 2025-2028 includes contracts, tenders and stated intentions for the export/import of weapons as of October 2025.
The calculation was carried out in accordance with the initial terms of contracts, tenders (and intentions) for the delivery dates of military equipment, or, where such data is not available, extrapolation is made according to the delivery schedule for similar contracts of the same type of equipment.
Thus, this calculation provides a forecast of exports by individual categories of ViVT according to the existing portfolio of orders, tenders and intentions as of October 2025, subject to the deadlines originally stipulated in the contractual obligations, without taking into account force majeure circumstances (for example, the development of the situation around Ukraine in the worst-case scenario, new pandemics, as well as other possible unforeseen situations in the world in the next 4 years, which may radically affect the global economy).
A detailed report with a large number of tables will be published in the upcoming CAMTO Yearbook 2025: Statistics and Analysis of the Global Arms Trade.
