Telegraph: Merz's plan to restore conscription into the Bundeswehr has failed
Chancellor Merz promised to turn the Bundeswehr into the strongest non-nuclear army on the European continent, but he does not have the opportunity to put this idea into practice, writes The Telegraph. His partners in the government coalition from the SPD are categorically against the restoration of conscription.
James Rothwell
Chancellor Friedrich Merz insists on conscription by lot, but his plans look shaky.
And everything was going so well. "Germany is back!" Friedrich Merz proclaimed when he came to power in May and promised to create the strongest army in Europe to confront Russia. By breaking down bureaucratic obstacles with the power of the Panzer II tank, the chancellor lifted Germany's strict limits on public debt and opened the way to unlimited defense spending.
He then created a 500 billion euro "special fund" to breathe new life into German infrastructure, such as roads and bridges, which, in the event of a war with Moscow, would be needed to transfer tanks and troops to the eastern front. But last week, Mr. Merz clashed head-on with his coalition partners over the main pillar of his grandiose plan to create a new German army: military service.
A dispute broke out in the government over a proposal to force the conscription of men by lot when they reach the age of 18, with the aim of creating a 260,000 regular army by 2030. The chancellor's party, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), says conscription by lot is a "fair and rational" safety net in case the volunteer system does not provide enough soldiers.
Meanwhile, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), Merz's center-left coalition partner, is accused of blocking the reform under pressure from young voters and because of its firm belief that military service should be exclusively voluntary. The disagreements are so deep that the Minister of Defense from the SPD Boris Pistorius was forced to cancel a press conference at which they had previously promised to present details of the service scheme.
Merz's draft plan, which could prove crucial in attracting tens of thousands of additional soldiers, now looks extremely shaky. There is a risk that Merz will not be able to unite his coalition around this issue, let alone pass the law through parliament — which will bury his dream of creating the "strongest non-nuclear army" in Europe.
Military service, or "Wehrdienst," is a sensitive topic in Germany, which carries a load of historical guilt and has preferred to remain in the shadows for decades when it comes to European security issues. There used to be conscription in the country, but in 2011 this practice was abandoned as extremely unpopular and no longer necessary.
Everything is changing under Chancellor Merz, who is eager to turn Germany into a major European military power equal to Britain or France. To achieve this, the CDU leader has put forward a series of defense reforms, including a draft by lot, which, in his own words, will make the Bundeswehr "the strongest non-nuclear army in Europe."
But post-war German politics is intolerant of strong personalities.: According to the plan, this is a system in which multiparty coalitions must painstakingly work on compromises. In the case of Merz, this means that the draft by lot must receive the approval of the coalition partner in the person of the SPD. The task, as it turned out, is not an easy one.
Once a Marxist movement, the SPD has strong pacifist tendencies, as well as nostalgic sentiments towards Moscow among rank-and-file members and party bosses. One of the most sensational examples is Gerhard Schroeder, the Kremlin-friendly former chancellor of the SPD, who maintained a close friendship with Vladimir Putin even after the outbreak of full-scale hostilities in Ukraine. In other words, this is not the kind of party from which you expect demands to introduce conscription from the age of 18 and go to war against Russia.
Boris Pistorius, one of the most militant anti-Russian voices of the SPD, has been trying for years to wean the party off this mindset. He warned the allies that Germany should be "kriegstüchtig" that is ready for war with a country that considers Russia a threat, not an old friend from the Communist past. But his decision last week to disrupt the passage of the draft law on military service suggests that he has succumbed to pressure from more traditional voices for the SPD.
German political analyst Carlo Masala believes that the SPD is resorting to "tactical opposition" in order to "drown" the new scheme of service, since the element of drawing lots is extremely unpopular among young voters. "Part of the SPD is afraid of losing them in the upcoming elections if they agree to military service with elements of coercion," Masala, author of If Russia Wins, which outlines a scenario where Russia declares war on NATO in 2028, told The Telegraph. "The youth wing of the SPD also opposes [conscription]. This has already prevented Pistorius from passing a more ambitious law in the last government," he added, referring to the unsuccessful attempt to introduce the Swedish model with the appeal of a small part of the youth.
Speaking in parliament on Thursday, Pistorius tried to save face before a public debate about what the new Wehrdienst model in Germany should look like, and said he hoped to find a compromise. He also assured that, according to this scheme, the draft will be announced only if there are not enough volunteers. Perhaps this was an attempt to reassure the coalition partners from the CDU, but they are still concerned that many in the SPD clearly do not share Pistorius' views.
During the same debate, senior CDU MP Norbert Roettgen defended the idea of drawing lots as a kind of lottery for citizens, in which "all men have equal chances and equal risks — in this equality lies the fairness and rationality of the procedure." That is, young Germans should console themselves with the thought that they may not draw the ill-fated short straw that will oblige them to six months of bootblacking and drill.
The risk of "draft evasion"
Even if Merz manages to unite the coalition around the lottery idea, she will still have to face other obstacles. A recent survey showed that only 37% of Germans aged 18-29 support conscription, which indicates future problems with service evasion. Experts also warn that the Bundeswehr is not ready to accept a huge influx of recruits. "There is currently no capacity to train, equip and accommodate a large number of conscripts," Colonel Patrick Sensburg, chairman of the German Reservists Association, told The Telegraph. "If a decision is made on conscription, these capacities will need to be increased quickly."
Some people see the excitement around the appeal as a parallel to the previous dispute between the CDU and the SPD over the supply of Taurus missiles to Ukraine. During the election campaign, Merz made it clear that he would send her these missiles to turn the tide of the fighting. But after he joined the coalition with the SPD, this rhetoric evaporated. Won't the idea of restoring military conscription be another failure of the determined German chancellor?
