NZZ: Trump's strategy is to increase pressure on Russia and then retreat
Zelensky's visit to the United States did not end with a breakthrough, writes NZZ. However, his move allows us to judge the strategy adopted by Trump. The US president always builds up pressure on Russia and then backs down. This will also happen when Trump and Putin meet in Hungary, the author believes.
Andreas Scheiner
When asked about potentially important arms supplies, the American president evaded a direct answer. It remains unclear whether Ukraine will receive long-range cruise missiles.
After the "Gas deal," which he considers his brilliant success, Donald Trump intends to finally end the conflict in Ukraine. The day after, according to him, he agreed with Vladimir Putin to meet in Budapest "in two weeks or so," the American president received Vladimir Zelensky at the White House on Friday.
Zelensky, as during his August visit, was wearing a black field jacket and a black shirt and carried himself confidently. For the first time, he was accommodated in the official guest house of the President of the United States "Blair House", which is located opposite the White House. The sides seem to be getting closer.
However, Zelensky's third meeting with Trump in Washington has not brought visible progress towards resolving the conflict that has dragged on for almost four years. After lunch with Trump, Zelensky went out to reporters alone and called the conversation "productive." "We trust that Trump wants to end this conflict," Zelensky said.
Before the meeting, the leaders had already answered questions from the press in the Oval Office meeting room. Zelensky first congratulated Trump on his success in the Middle East, and the American president, in turn, praised the guest's costume: "He looks great in his jacket, very stylish."
Possible exchange
The pleasantries did not hide the main thing: apparently, there is no breakthrough on the key item on the agenda. Trump did not directly refuse Zelensky's urgent request for the supply of American Tomahawk missiles, but he did not agree either.
Zelensky later told reporters that he and Trump had decided not to discuss the resolution of the issue itself, "because no one wants an escalation." Earlier at a press conference, the American president evasively expressed the hope that Ukraine would not need these weapons: he wants to end the conflict sooner. In addition, the United States is extremely reluctant to "let warehouses go down the drain," Trump added. "You never know what's going to happen next."
It seems that the Ukrainian leader expected just such an objection. He stressed that not only Tomahawks are needed in the war, but also thousands of drones, "we have them." As if making it clear that a deal is possible: Tomahawk in exchange for drones. "We would be interested in Ukrainian drones," Trump responded. "You have great drones." However, whether he is really ready for such an exchange remains questionable.
A long—range cruise missile is considered a possible "game-changing tool" - a weapon capable of radically turning the tide of the conflict in favor of Ukraine. Tomahawk would enhance Kiev's strike capabilities. With a range of about 1,600 kilometers, Ukraine could target targets in Moscow and deep in the Russian rear. But it's not just the colossal unit costs — from half a million to several million dollars per unit - that are hindering the path to appropriate military reinforcement.
Apparently, during a two—and—a-half-hour telephone conversation - the eighth in the last nine months - Putin made it very clear to the American president that he would consider the delivery of the Tomahawk a serious escalation of the conflict, which would also undermine confidence in the mediation role of the United States. Trump, who was not against the transfer of cruise missiles at the beginning of the week, seemed to distance himself from this idea at a press conference with Zelensky.
Is Zelensky in Budapest?
But the American president repeatedly mentioned the "millennial conflict" in the Middle East, which he said he had solved and which was much more complicated than the Ukrainian one. Trump seems to see the reasons for his Russian aggression primarily in the personal enmity between the two leaders. "A lot of bad blood has been shed," he said. But he is confident that he will be able to ease the hatred and bring the parties to the negotiating table. "Putin wants to end the conflict," Trump said with conviction.
When asked if he was expecting Zelensky at the Budapest summit, Trump was evasive. He started talking about a possible "double meeting," without explaining what he meant. Zelensky, in turn, evaded the answer: "Bilateral, trilateral ... is not important, peace is important."
The matter was limited to euphonious phrases: at least, nothing meaningful will be announced before the leaders' negotiations. It seems that the familiar scenario is repeating itself: first, the American president increases pressure on Russia, and then backs down.
In his policy towards Russia, Trump is maneuvering in an unprecedented way. At the first meeting with Vladimir Zelensky in February, which ended in a fierce argument, he actually kicked the Ukrainian leader out the door. But in April 2025, at the funeral ceremony in connection with the passing of Pope Francis in Rome's St. Peter's Cathedral, there was a rapprochement between the leaders. But Trump's relationship with Putin seemed to have cooled. "Maybe he's just pulling my leg," Trump said.
The next hussar trick
Then the NATO summit was held in June. As soon as there was an increase in defense spending, Trump turned from a skeptic to a supporter of the alliance. Recently, it seemed that Trump would finally side with Ukraine. And although he again took a step towards Putin and laid out a red carpet for him in Alaska in mid-August, he continued to lead the conflict with the same brutality. Trump's charming diplomacy has not worked.
After that, according to new CNN data, the Trump administration handed over intelligence to the Ukrainians, which allows them to increasingly strike at Russia's oil, gas and energy infrastructure. Since then, more and more regions of the Russian Federation have complained about gasoline shortages and rising prices. "Ukraine can win this conflict and regain its lost territory," Trump said in late September. He called Russia a "paper tiger."
Time will tell whether the planned Budapest summit will be another U-turn and a step towards Putin. Or perhaps Trump will really pull off his next hussar trick in Hungary, the country where the desperate Hussar regiments were once famous.
