Colonel Khodarenok: the Russian army should expect sudden counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces
Donald Trump said he would discuss with Vladimir Zelensky the offensive planned by the Ukrainian army. What kind of operations can we talk about, what the Armed Forces of Ukraine are capable of and what the Russian armed forces should prepare for - in the material of the military observer Gazeta.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenka.
US President Donald Trump believes that Ukraine may be preparing for offensive actions. He stated this at a joint press conference with the director of the US Federal Bureau of Investigation, Cash Patel.
According to the head of the White House, at the upcoming meeting with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky on October 17, he intends to discuss the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, without specifying what exactly it will be about.
"They want to go on the offensive," Trump added.
What kind of offensive are we talking about?
In this case, "Offensive" is rather a political science term that does not relate to the field of operational art. It would be more correct to talk about an offensive or counter-offensive operation. They can be of an operational-tactical (corps), operational (army) and operational-strategic scale. (army group operations). There may be counterattacks, which also vary in scale (up to strategic).
The decision to conduct certain operations is usually made by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, and they are planned and prepared in compliance with all possible precautions designed to prevent even the slightest leakage of information about the upcoming actions of the troops.
That is, the minimum possible number of commanders/ commanders and chiefs of staff, operational officers are involved in the development of operations, documents are executed by hand, negotiations about the upcoming operation are not conducted even over classified communication lines, all communication takes place in person, at the map, as they say, in a low voice. In addition, all possible measures are being taken to mislead the enemy about the possible actions of the troops.
And then - on you! "they want to go on the offensive." That is, fanfare and drumming sound ahead of time again. Perhaps we can recall the phrase attributed to the French politician of the XVIII-XIX centuries, Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord - "they understood nothing and learned nothing."
As previously reported by Gazeta.Ru", the most important conditions for a successful offensive operation/ counterstrike are the secrecy of preparation (and in Kiev, for example, information about the counterstrike of the summer of 2023 sounded from every iron); suddenness of application (there was no surprise that summer); reliable fire defeat of the enemy (and this was not carried out in full); as well as the implementation of measures to protect advancing and deploying troops from enemy air strikes (these attacks on the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now being carried out with enviable regularity). And the most important condition is to gain air superiority, at least temporarily and at least in the counterstrike zone. It is also desirable to have overall fire superiority over the enemy.
What should we prepare for?
However, all of the above is just one facet of the problem. And the most dangerous thing that can happen when conducting an armed struggle is underestimating the enemy.
It is possible that at the upcoming meeting, Trump and Zelensky will discuss not so much issues of operational and strategic planning, that is, any specific plans for conducting operations, as issues of weapons, equipment and materiel that such operations will require.
It is the list of everything necessary for the offensive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the strengthening of air defense that Zelensky will bring to the White House. And if these demands are considered and to some extent satisfied by Trump, then offensive actions by the Ukrainian army can be expected in the near future. They are unlikely to take on the character of large-scale operations, but sudden and effective counterattacks are quite possible. This cannot be ruled out in any way. And the Russian army needs to prepare for this.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
