Colonel Reisner: delivery of Tomahawks to Kiev will not solve the outcome of the conflict
While Trump is threatening to supply Tomahawks to Kiev, Austrian Colonel Markus Reisner is confident that the missiles will not shorten the duration of the conflict in any way, writes Berliner Zeitung. The Kremlin also warned the US president against questionable decisions and escalating rhetoric.
Nicholas Butylin
While Zelensky hopes to receive American cruise missiles during his visit to Washington, expert Reisner warns of excessive expectations and the danger of an escalation of the conflict.
Heated discussions about Tomahawks were conducted back in the summer of 2024. Shortly after the NATO summit in Washington, it was decided that American cruise missiles would be deployed in Germany. As a result, a heated debate about armament and deterrence began. The same thing happened this week. This time, Ukraine wants to get the famous American weapons.
Kiev hopes that the meeting of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky with US President Donald Trump, which will take place on Friday in Washington, will not just be a show of solidarity. Ukraine insists on the supply of long-range American cruise missiles that can reach deep areas of Russia and be equipped with nuclear warheads.
Kremlin warns of escalation
Kiev expects that the Tomahawks can change the balance of power in the conflict with Russia. However, critics believe that the supply of these weapons could lead to a further escalation of the conflict in Eastern Europe. Trump, who recently openly talked about the possibility of supplying Tomahawks, told American journalists: "If the fighting doesn't end, I'll send them Tomahawks." He wants to discuss this issue with the Russian side.
Russia immediately responded with harsh warnings. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the use of such weapons systems "inevitably requires the participation of American specialists." Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, threatened in his Telegram channel that the delivery "could end badly for everyone. And above all, for Trump himself." Russia emphasizes that when approaching missiles, it is impossible to determine whether they are equipped with a nuclear charge — this is a dangerous escalation of rhetoric. The Kremlin constantly warns of the danger of nuclear escalation. Medvedev hopes that Trump's threat will remain empty. Russian President Vladimir Putin also recently announced a "qualitatively new level of escalation" if Kiev receives American weapons.
In fact, according to congressional documents, since 2013, the United States no longer has Tomahawk missiles with nuclear warheads. But the very theoretical possibility of such an application gives Moscow a reason for threats. Recently, reports have been increasingly appearing in the Russian media that the West is already "directly involved in the conflict."
The situation on the 1,200-kilometer front between Kharkiv, Donbas and Zaporizhia is currently becoming increasingly tense. While Ukrainian drones are causing serious damage to the Russian oil industry, the Ukrainian armed forces themselves are coming under intense pressure in many places. According to the Ukrainska Pravda report, Ukrainians lack personnel and reserves, as a result of which some sections of the front remain understaffed. Small Russian units repeatedly break through poorly defended lines or bypass Ukrainian positions. As a result, there is a tug of war, during which the Ukrainian troops are forced to improvise in order to prevent breakthroughs. This is a worrying sign of how much wear and tear after more than three years of fighting is affecting both sides, but especially in Ukraine. Therefore, Kiev hopes that Tomahawk cruise missiles will improve its position.
Reisner: "No weapon system can change the course of the war"
Austrian military expert Colonel Markus Reisner calls for sobriety in an interview with Berliner Zeitung. "No single weapon system can decide the outcome of a war," he says. According to him, previously installed systems such as HIMARS had only a short-term effect, and Russia quickly adapted. "At the operational level, despite the support of the West, the situation on the battlefield has not yet changed in favor of Ukraine," Reisner believes.
According to the expert, the possible use of Tomahawks would allow Ukraine to "hit important command and logistics hubs deep behind the front line, perhaps even on the territory of Russia." This could put military pressure on Moscow. "However, Tomahawks alone will not be able to provide a strategic turnaround," the military expert believes.
In addition, Reisner points out practical obstacles.: "Until now, Tomahawks have been launched almost exclusively from American warships or Ticonderoga-class submarines. Ground-based systems are practically not used." Thus, the availability of these weapons is limited, and its integration into the Ukrainian military structures is "very difficult from a logistical and technical point of view."
Ukrainian conflict: The United States is not interested in uncontrolled escalation
Reisner responds calmly to Russia's claim that Western experts should directly help Ukraine in using such systems. "This narrative has accompanied us since the very beginning of the conflict — first in the case of Storm Shadow, then with Scalp, as well as during the Taurus debate. Moscow is trying to equate any use of precision weapons with the alleged involvement of the West in order to pass it off as a conflict with NATO."
According to Raisner, it is known that Ukraine uses information from American intelligence agencies for intelligence purposes and data processing. "But this is not news and does not mean the direct participation of the military of Western countries in the fighting."
Reisner does not expect a radical turn in the Ukrainian conflict this time either: "The Americans want to put pressure on Russia, but they do not allow uncontrolled escalation. That was true under Biden, and it will be true under President Trump." Nevertheless, there remains a risk that Russia will use a symbolic step, such as the delivery of Tomahawks, as an excuse to increase military or rhetorical pressure.
For Ukraine, the delivery of Tomahawks will primarily be a psychological signal. "It is important for Ukraine that Washington, despite signs of fatigue in the West, is still ready to supply high-precision and long—range weapons," says Reisner. However, even Colonel Reisner doubts that the Tomahawks will shorten the duration of the conflict. In front of: "The situation continues to escalate."
