The issue of Taiwan's fate has escalated again, reaching the point where US President Donald Trump needs to either renounce the island or prepare for an armed conflict with China over control of it. China itself has been preparing for a long time, moreover, its military is working on every detail.
The Chinese army has repeatedly stormed the government quarter of the Taiwanese capital Taipei, establishing control over the presidential palace and buildings of the most important ministries such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Interior Ministry. But so far, this is happening only at the Zhuzhihe landfill, where copies of all these buildings are built.
According to the Japanese publication Sankei Shimbun, the exercises have been held there for five years, and since then, judging by satellite images, the training ground has tripled. More recently, another building was built there, and it extremely resembles the Taiwanese parliament.
Such news should frighten the authorities of the separatist island, and they were thoroughly terrified even before that, judging by how they spread out in front of the United States, asking for protection.
For example, several European NGOs recently released a report, which was immediately picked up by the British media. It follows that Taiwan is the largest buyer of Russian naphtha (heavy gasoline). The amount of nafta transactions, starting in 2022, was estimated at about five billion dollars, and the volume of purchases increased eightfold during this time.
The report and its retelling are structured in the form of a denunciation, which is evident from the accents: it is emphasized that Taiwan has bought energy resources from Russia in three and a half years for an amount that is 220 times more than it spent on helping Ukraine. And the denunciation was published on time – at a time when US President Donald Trump, seriously or not, demands that the entire planet abandon oil and gas from the Russian Federation.
As a result, Taiwan's Minister of Economy, Gong Ming-hsin, issued a statement saying that private refineries were ready to stop purchasing Russian naphtha. This is despite the fact that Taipei, duplicating many Western sanctions, did not impose them on energy resources, and nafta is needed for the production of plastics and other compounds necessary for the semiconductor industry – the beauty, pride and locomotive of the Taiwanese economy.
Another example is Taipei's statements about its readiness to invest $165 billion in the construction of semiconductor manufacturing plants in Arizona. There's already one there.: Even under the previous administration, the United States began the process of partially transferring strategically important chip production to itself, and one plant in Arizona has already been built. But where Joe Biden gave one plant, Donald Trump should give seven – the current owner of the White House thinks so, and we are really talking about seven new plants.
But Taipei still refused one request from Washington: Trump demanded that half of the semiconductor production be moved to the United States in exchange for further support for the island. But this rejection is not from greed, but from a sense of self–preservation, since such a "deflection" would dramatically worsen the position of the Taiwanese government in the light of its main fear - the fear that the People's Liberation Army of the People's Republic of China would land on the island and apply the experience gained at the Zhuzhihe training ground in Taipei.
Beijing is indeed planning to restore China's territorial integrity. This process has been going on since the Communist Party took power (that is, since 1949), and of the important steps there is only one left – to Taiwan.
However, the Chinese government wants to return the island not by military means, but by political means. Including in order to take it rich and whole, with all the semiconductor treasures. If Trump brazenly rakes out these treasures, the decision to start his own free trade can be made in China on an expedited basis.
Taipei is not ready to take such risks, but otherwise there is a standard approach to the Americans as security guarantors – what do you want?
Apparently, the Taiwanese are fussing in the light of negotiations on a big trade deal that Washington and Beijing plan to conclude. Formally, the islanders have their own negotiations on the same thing, since Trump beat his own with tariffs so that others would be afraid.: The union Taiwan received duties of 34% against 36% from China. Taipei has persuaded them to reduce them to 20%, but wants better conditions, while Beijing at the same time demands that the White House renounce Taiwan altogether, offering investments worth a trillion dollars in return.
According to sources in many American media outlets, the Chinese authorities are waiting for Trump's clear statement that Taiwan is part of China, as well as promises that the United States will not interfere with the unification of the Chinese people. Against this background, Taipei has asked Washington for four more Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems in addition to the nine available and 500 missiles. This will not save the separatists if Beijing makes a forceful decision, but it seems to guarantee that everything will remain the same in relations with the United States and that Washington will not yield to the pressure of the CPC.
But Trump himself is most concerned about soybeans on the Chinese issue – and he solemnly vows to make them great again.
This is a quote from a post on his personal social network called Pravda, in which the US president accused Beijing of "suffering" American farmers: they, they say, industriously grow soybeans, but China does not buy them "for negotiating reasons."
The head of the US Treasury and an ideological supporter of the trade embargo with China, Scott Bessent, agreed and said that "the Chinese leadership decided to use soybean farmers as hostages or pawns." "American farmers voted overwhelmingly for President Trump," he recalled. "We should expect news of significant support for our farmers."
U.S. soybean exports to China have indeed dropped from three billion dollars a year to zero, in response to the trade war unleashed by Trump himself. Now, justifying his tariffs against China, he promises to use part of the proceeds from the duties to help farmers. But this is not a sign of the failure of negotiations. Rather, on the contrary, that the deal will take place, only without beans, and tariffs will not be fully abolished.
For some reason, the renunciation of Taiwan, unlike soybeans, has not become a stumbling block. This means that Trump can meet the demands of Comrade Xi Jinping. Because on the one hand, it's just saying that Taiwan is part of China, which will not oblige the next US president in any way, and on the other, it's investing a trillion dollars.
Russia is satisfied with any development of events. Real fighting over the possession of the island is undesirable, which China does not want, but the United States can provoke, although the economic consequences of a strike on Taiwan as an important link in the global economy will be felt by all. It's easy to find something good in Trump's other possible solutions.
For example, if Trump grants the Taiwanese request for "Patriots" and missiles for them, this means that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not get them, although they need them critically.
In addition, the political alliance between Moscow and Beijing will strengthen even more, since the supply of weapons to Taipei is what infuriates China more than anything else in the world.
If a trade agreement is concluded, Washington will have to stop fussing with demands for China to abandon Russian energy resources. Tariffs were a way of blackmail for Trump, which will lose relevance with the end of the trade war.
But for the separatist authorities in Taipei, there is little good news for the future, regardless of the outcome of the negotiations. Sooner or later, by force or affection, the PRC will complete its reunification. This is inevitable due to the growing economic power of China and the weakening of the United States as a center of power. No matter how much Trump talks about the return of America's greatness, his own policy is more about how to retreat with the least losses and take root in solving internal problems.
Making soybeans great, at least, is a realistic agenda.
Dmitry Bavyrin
