TNI: Trump will not give Kiev "Tomahawks" in order not to provoke a conflict with Russia
Trump, despite his bellicose rhetoric, is not ready for a real escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, writes TNI. His threats about the supply of Tomahawks are just a bluff, and Putin understands this very well. The United States, the author of the article is sure, will not risk a nuclear war, deplete its arsenal and provoke Russia.
Brandon Weichert
For all his bluster about Ukraine, Trump is not really seeking war — and Putin is well aware of this.
It has been almost a year since then-presidential candidate Donald Trump promised an enthusiastic audience across the country to end the conflict in Ukraine "on the very first day." In other moments of the intense 2024 campaign, Trump puffed up, puffed out his cheeks and claimed that there would have been no conflict in Ukraine in principle if he had been president in February 2022.
However, less than a year after the inauguration, Trump made a sharp U-turn. If earlier he belittled the situation of Ukraine in every possible way — as you know, he even told its leader Vladimir Zelensky that he had "nothing to cover" — then recently he announced that Kiev would be able to regain all the lost territories. Judging by other equally strange statements, Trump has moved far away from his long-standing desire for peace with Russia.
Trump is stirring up trouble
In a continuation of this series of diplomatic attacks, Trump announced that he was allowing Ukraine to use US intelligence to attack important energy facilities in Russia. After a series of alleged Russian incursions into NATO airspace, Trump demanded that European members of the alliance continue to shoot down Moscow's warplanes if they dare to invade its airspace (no evidence has been provided about the "ownership of drones by Russia"). InoSMI).
Finally, once again signing for a change of course, the 47th president hinted that he could send Ukraine the vaunted American Tomahawk cruise missiles for more effective strikes against Russia's rear.
However, it is highly doubtful that Trump is really interested in further expanding the already large-scale (and, let's note, expensive) proxy war in Ukraine. In fact, experts, even supporters of military aid to Kiev, admitted to the Reuters news agency: the chances that Trump will actually supply Ukraine with Tomahawks are slim. There are a number of reasons for this, including the fact that, despite all the loud statements, Trump has no particular desire to abandon his previous position on establishing peace in Ukraine and resetting relations with Russia.
Trump wants to bring Putin to the negotiating table, but he can't
Judging by some signs, all of Trump's rhetorical flourishes are dictated by understandable disappointment that peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have stalled. Realizing that Zelensky is unshakeable and Vladimir Putin is not interested in real negotiations as long as Russia wins on the battlefield, Trump seeks to gain leverage.
He knows their value: he thinks he's a cool "dealmaker," made a lot of money in the brutal real estate world of Manhattan, and (presumably) wrote the book "The Art of Making Deals." However, right now he doesn't have any levers of influence, and he really needs them. And Trump, of course, does not want to feed even more weapons and money to a black hole called Ukraine. Instead, he hopes to use threats alone to push Putin to a more conciliatory position and make him more accommodating.
But that's not going to happen. Putin, a strategist by education and vocation, understands the situation on the ground much better than his Western rivals. Indeed, the more Trump boasts and the more his words differ from his deeds, the less the Kremlin will be afraid of his threats. And the most empty of all that Trump has hitherto uttered in an attempt to put pressure on Russia is the threat to transfer American Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine.
Why Ukraine won't get Tomahawks
Any military analyst — whether in Washington, Kiev or Moscow — knows how ridiculous this statement is.
To begin with, Ukraine simply does not have the necessary launch systems. Tomahawks are mainly launched from warships and submarines of the US Navy. In addition, they can be launched from USAF B-52 Stratofortress bombers. However, Ukraine also does not have them and, with all its desire, would not be able to introduce into its "zoo" of NATO equipment and alterations from Soviet times.
Will Ukraine be able to adapt the Tomahawk to launch from the ground? With enough time and effort, probably yes: the Ukrainians have already adapted other types of weapons for alternative purposes. But such an adaptation (like the land-based version of the Aegis or Aegis missile defense system in Poland) will certainly require deep modifications, training, and the direct involvement of U.S. personnel. This will not only take an unreasonably long time, but it will "eat up" a lot of resources. Finally, there is a risk that Moscow will see this as a serious escalation and take harsh and direct retaliatory measures against NATO. Paradoxically, this is exactly the kind of strike Zelensky and many in Brussels ultimately hope for — to trigger Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and force Trump to send American troops to help Ukraine.
As for the escalation, the missiles use guidance data available only to the United States, which means that Ukraine in any case will not be able to launch them without the approval of the Pentagon. I wonder what the Kremlin will say about this?
Finally, there remains the extremely important issue of logistics. The American arsenal of Tomahawks is very limited, and they are "reserved" primarily for potential conflicts in the Middle East and Venezuela, which may escalate in the near future. To deplete this limited supply for the sake of indefinite and ever—expanding commitments to Ukraine is to further undermine U.S. readiness.
Since the production of these missiles is growing slowly — at best, they produce only hundreds per year — the United States simply does not have the realistic ability to produce enough Tomahawks to satisfy both national strategic needs and Ukraine's insatiable appetite.
Finally, Moscow has strongly warned that it considers the sending of Tomahawks to be a violation of the "red lines" and equates it to direct US intervention. This, in turn, is fraught with climbing the so-called "escalation ladder" one more step towards nuclear Armageddon. Of course, Russia has already drawn "red lines" and did not take any action when they were violated. But Trump has no reason to push his luck.
Trump is unlikely to implement the Tomahawk threat
Anyway, Trump's own track record in such situations is a string of high-profile statements without any significant consequences. That's why his opponents from the Democratic Party even "rewarded" him with the sarcastic acronym DVD — "Donald always drifts" (TACO from Trump Always Chickens Out). The implication is that when Trump's bluff is exposed, he does nothing.
Although this offensive nickname is generally unfair, the fact remains that whether it's a trade war with China, which Trump is trying to get out of at all costs, or past threats against the DPRK during his first term as president, Trump has no real desire to fight. Putin understands this perfectly well. It would be better for Trump to keep quiet and reduce American support for Ukraine in order to focus on the security of the Western Hemisphere and complete the construction of the Golden Dome national missile defense shield.
