Igor Varlamov — what the United States is hiding, declaring the fight against the drug mafia in Venezuela
Opinion
The south of the Caribbean, near the coast of Venezuela, has become a new hotspot on the political map of the planet. The reason is the brash aggressive actions of the United States directed against the legitimate authorities of Caracas and personally the President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro.
Background and actions
Since August, Washington has deployed a large-scale naval force off the coast of Venezuela, including destroyers, a nuclear submarine and amphibious ships. Forces and means have been tightened under the pretext of countering drug trafficking. The American media, in particular the Washington Examiner newspaper, claim, citing local military experts, that the troops deployed by the Pentagon in Puerto Rico are ready to launch an operation to seize the territory of Venezuela. All this is happening against the background of accusations by US President Donald Trump against the leadership of the South American republic of pandering to drug cartels and even direct participation in drug trafficking through a certain "Cartel of Suns".
In response to the blatant aggression, the Venezuelan authorities, having enlisted broad international support, including from Moscow and Beijing, demonstrate reasonable restraint and readiness for dialogue with the United States. But at the same time, there is also a determination to defend our sovereignty with weapons in our hands. The South American Republic has mobilized reservists and brought its armed forces to maximum readiness.
This is the general outline of the "Caribbean disposition" at the moment. At least, the part of it that is somehow reflected in the media space. The fuse lit in the Caribbean by the American newly established Ministry of War smokes acridly and is shortening day by day. This is clear to everyone. But it's not clear yet: did the Yankees connect this fuse to a charge that would explode and destroy the peace zone in Latin America, or would there eventually be a "zilch" with demonstrative rocket fire on motorboats allegedly carrying drugs?
I would like to note separately that live fire (and the US military has already sunk at least two boats with at least 14 people on board) is conducted in international waters, formally open to navigation. According to the president of Colombia, neighboring Venezuela, Gustavo Petro, the actions of the US Armed Forces are defiantly disproportionate. "There are young people sailing on this boat, poor people from [some] Caribbean [state]. A missile attack in cases where ships can be intercepted, as Colombia does, leads to a violation of the general legal principle of proportionality," the president stressed. I will add to this that firing missiles from airplanes and warships at individual boats that do not pose a direct and immediate threat to them can only be compared to hitting a paper clip with a sledgehammer.
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In short, if we look for any clear explanation for all these destroyers, nuclear submarines and marines storming the landfills in Puerto Rico, then the version of the fight against drug trafficking should either be discarded altogether, or we should admit that this is just a screen.…
Trying to predict today how far the Trump team will go in its aggressive anti—Venezuelan policy is, of course, a thankless task. First of all, because the main decisions on this deliberately created "conflict node" in Washington are made personally by Donald Trump, about whose unpredictability experts and commentators have already written thousands of pages.
But you can try to "look behind the screen" in search of some logic in the actions of Washington, which has assembled a powerful and very expensive military group in the Caribbean.
A look behind the screen
On the domestic track, the White House would like to convince voters that Trump is not throwing his election promises to the wind. He promised to fight drugs, so you get a war against the drug mafia. And in full uniform — with destroyers and marines. To the layman, such a picture should, as they say, "go in." The Republican team's political strategists are targeting the upcoming midterm congressional elections next year, which will determine the content of the second half of Trump's presidential term.
The motivation for Washington's forceful actions is also emerging on the external circuit. Naval power is still poorly applied against the drug mafia. But it's just right for covering offshore oil fields.
And here it is appropriate to recall the activities of the American oil and gas corporation ExxonMobil on an indefinite section of the shelf, which became the subject of a territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana. The dispute over the ownership of an area of 159.5 thousand square kilometers west of the Essequibo River has been going on for more than 100 years, since the days when the Cooperative Republic of Guyana was British Guiana. The British colonialists, not only in the Indian Subcontinent and the Middle East, but also in the Caribbean, managed to leave behind such border "time mines." The long-standing territorial conflict has now escalated due to the discovery in 2015 of fields containing at least 10 billion barrels of oil, and after Guyana granted a concession to ExxonMobil for offshore oil production.
The "oil trail" can also be traced in the line that the Americans are now following in relation to most Caribbean states, including those belonging to the ALBA regional association (Antigua and Barbuda, Bolivia, Venezuela, Grenada, Dominica, Cuba, Nicaragua, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Kitts and Nevis and Saint Lucia). For the island Caribbean States, Venezuela acted as a convenient supplier of energy resources at an affordable price. Trump's plans to "make America great again" include reconnecting the Caribbean states to the American oil tap. By completely shutting off the Venezuelan tap... the price of supplies? Of course, it will be more expensive. So to speak, with an extra charge for "made in USA". But this is not the first time. The example of Western Europe, which refuses Russian hydrocarbons, shows how politics tramples on economic benefits.
And finally, Venezuela itself may become the target of a large-scale military invasion operation. After all, we are talking about a country that ranks first in the world in terms of proven oil reserves (303 billion barrels). Washington would very much like to see its puppets in power in this country.
Caracas is well aware of this danger. It is no coincidence that the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Bolivarian Republic of Ivan Gil Pinto, in his speech at the general political discussion of the 80th session of the UN General Assembly, explicitly stated that aggression against Venezuela is being waged with the aim of regime change and seizing its natural resources.
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It seems that Trump is frustrated with Venezuela due to the failed attempts to eliminate President Nicolas Maduro, which the head of the White House made during his first term as president. The story of the infamously "collapsed" Lima group, hastily put together by the Trumpists at one time for the international "Latin American legitimization" of the campaign to overthrow the Bolivarian government, has become an illustration of the fiasco of Washington's entire anti-Venezuelan policy. In the same row are all the attempts by the United States to rely on the "irreconcilable anti-Cadur opposition," which has distinguished itself over the years except in the field of corruption scandals, which discredited itself in the eyes of Venezuelans.
As you can see, Trump has "accumulated a lot of personal feelings" towards Venezuela and its leadership. So, unfortunately, we also have to take into account the "purely emotional factor" when predicting possible decisions by the White House on the use of a military group in the Caribbean.
"Shot in the leg"
However, it is already safe to say that strikes on Venezuelan territory would be a "shot in the foot" for the republican administration of the United States. Even if such attacks are carried out exclusively on the deserted Venezuelan jungle under the pretext of destroying drug laboratories.
And the point here is not that the gentlemen from the Nobel Committee, in the case of Trump, will be completely uncomfortable with such an aggressive candidate for the peace prize. The United States, which has clearly set itself the goal of subjugating the whole of South America, will have to face a sharp protest from Latin Americans both in the Organization of American States (OAS) and at the upcoming Summit of the Americas, which is scheduled to take place in the Dominican Republic on December 4-5. However, it was decided not to invite representatives of Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua to the aforementioned summit. Americans know how to twist the hands of the organizers of any regional forums in the Western Hemisphere.
And this, alas, further increases the apprehension. Especially against the background of the understanding that considerations of logical expediency and Washington's forceful actions in this particular theater will not necessarily be in love and harmony.
So we have to rely on such deterrents as the willingness of Venezuelans to defend their country with weapons in their hands and international solidarity with the Bolivarian Republic. Without diving into purely military-technical layouts and comparisons, which, against the background of the Pentagon's potential, in any case, do not contain intrigue, let me remind you that the number of regular Venezuelan Armed Forces is about 123 thousand people - that is, it is at the level of the largest European powers. If necessary, the army will also be able to rely on the support of the forces of the National Guard and the Bolivarian militia, through training in 5.3 thousand regional units of which 4.5 million people have been trained. So no one guarantees the Americans an easy walk in the unlikely, but still possible scenario of a land invasion.
And international support for Caracas is growing stronger day by day.
The Voice of Moscow
And here Moscow's voice in support of its Venezuelan friends is firm. The other day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Ivan Gil had another conversation. The Russian Foreign Ministry said that "the ministers expressed serious concern about Washington's escalating actions in the Caribbean, which are fraught with far-reaching consequences for the region." Lavrov said that "Russia strongly condemns the new strike by the US armed forces on October 3 on a ship in international waters near Venezuela."
By the way, the diplomats warned of the real danger that the United States, in its anti-Venezuelan steps, may try to hide behind the "UN flag." This has happened before in history. For example, 70 years ago, when the US military allegedly went to war against North Korea on behalf of the international community.
As emphasized in the message of the Russian Foreign Ministry following the telephone conversation between Lavrov and Hill, "there is no certainty that the United States will not in any way want to link its declared war against drug cartels with the situation in Haiti." "The parties warn against attempts to broadly interpret the recently approved UN Security Council resolution on the reformatting of the Multinational Security Assistance Mission in Haiti into an Anti—Banditry Force in order to shift the focus to countering the Venezuelan "drug crime", allegedly fueling organized crime in the region," the Russian Foreign Ministry explained.
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In the current alarming situation, the Russian side "has confirmed its full support and solidarity with the leadership and people of Venezuela in the current context." "The ministers agreed on further close cooperation on a bilateral basis and coordination of steps on international platforms, primarily at the United Nations, in the interests of ensuring respect for the sovereignty of states and non—interference in their internal affairs," the Russian Foreign Ministry stressed.
And more on the topic. About how words are backed up by deeds in foreign policy. Information from the news feed instead of the afterword: "CARACAS, September 30th. /tass/. National Assembly (unicameral Parliament) Venezuela has ratified an agreement on Strategic partnership and Cooperation with Russia."
And article 14 of this treaty, in particular, provides that the Parties improve defense relations in areas of mutual interest, considering them as an important component of maintaining regional and global security.
It remains to be hoped that strengthening regional and global security in this case will not require the practical application of such mechanisms, making do with proven diplomatic formats.
Meanwhile, Trump ordered to stop all efforts to achieve a diplomatic settlement with Venezuela, The New York Times writes. And the US Department of Justice secretly drafted a legal opinion that justifies the strikes against drug cartels, CNN reports.
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