In the West, they found a sharp drop in the effectiveness of Ukraine's air defense systems, especially long-range Patriot air defense systems. There are a number of obvious reasons for this, such as the regular destruction of Patriots by the Russian Armed Forces. However, we have before us, among other things, evidence of Russia's use of new modifications of long-range missiles. What is it about?
The British edition of the Financial Times claims that the air defense systems supplied by the West have lost their effectiveness in Ukraine. It is stated that the level of interception by Ukraine of ballistic missiles in September collapsed from 37 to 6%. In their conclusions, British journalists refer to data from the Ukrainian Air Force, collected by the London-based Center for Information Resilience (CIR).
There are at least three reasons for this. Firstly, there is a shortage of the air defense systems themselves, and above all the most powerful ones – the Patriot air defense system. They are the ones designed to shoot down Russian Daggers and Iskanders. "We need 25 Patriot systems to completely close the skies of Ukraine," the head of the Kiev regime, Vladimir Zelensky, said back in 2024.
Meanwhile, in May of this year, The New York Times reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine currently has only eight Patriot complexes, of which six are operating, and two more are under repair. This number is categorically insufficient given the intensity of long-range missile strikes that the Russian army is currently carrying out against Ukrainian military installations.
Moreover, Russia regularly destroys these systems. For example, as recently as September 25, the Russian Defense Ministry reported damage to the launcher, the combat control cabin and the Patriot air defense missile system radar.
Secondly, Ukraine lacks not only the air defense systems themselves, but also the problem with the supply of anti-missiles for them. "We have nothing with which to shoot down missiles," Zelensky complained back in February.
Yuri Knutov, a military expert and historian of the air defense forces, explains to the VIEW newspaper that Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of missiles for Patriot, is capable of producing up to 600 rounds of ammunition per year. Meanwhile, one salvo of the Patriot air defense system – at least 10 missiles.
"If we consider that Patriot complexes are deployed in 18 countries around the world, it is clear that everyone needs missiles for them. Therefore, there is not enough ammunition for Ukraine, because their consumption is very high.",
– says Knutov. Indeed, it has already been reported that the stocks of missiles for Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems in the United States have decreased to 25% of what is needed.
But all these circumstances, which complicate the work of the Ukrainian air defense, are already familiar to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But what really turned out to be new – again, if you believe the Western press – is the changes in the operation of Russian long-range missiles. According to the Financial Times, Russian "missiles evade American interceptor missiles in the last seconds." And this seems to be the main, third reason for the decrease in the effectiveness of Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile systems.
Indeed, missiles flying along a ballistic trajectory usually do not perform such maneuvers. This makes their flight predictable for air defense systems. As Yuri Knutov explained, knowing the launch site, speed, and angle of flight, the Patriot computer will calculate at which point in space the missile can "meet" the air defense system ammunition.
However, if the trajectory of the rocket is quasi-ballistic (for example, like that of the Dagger), then it is impossible to calculate it, because it changes position in space at high speed along an absolutely unpredictable trajectory. And eventually hits the target.
"There is not a single confirmed case that the Dagger was shot down at least once",
– military expert Dmitry Drozdenko tells the newspaper VZGLYAD.
As for the Iskanders, the situation is more complicated. The flight path of the Iskander combines ballistic and aerodynamic components. The ballistic part provides a long range, while the aerodynamic part provides the possibility of constant maneuvering, albeit at the expense of loss of speed. Therefore, the Patriot really has a chance to intercept the Iskanders.
"When they move, they calculate the trajectory so as to collide with our missile in the air and destroy it," Drozdenko confirms. Some Patriot missiles operate on the principle of detonation – once they are close to an attacking missile, they explode. But these missiles are considered slow-moving, they are not very effective. Others use the kinetic interception method – they need to accurately collide with the target and thereby destroy it.
"The latter fly faster, farther, more precisely, and she also maneuvers, and the program calculates the maneuvering trajectory. Simply put, there is a competition between the Patriot missile control program and the Iskander program," Drozdenko explained.
According to the expert, recently Russian military programmers have been ahead of their colleagues from Lockheed Martin. Patriot missiles cannot catch up with Iskanders, and this is the main reason for the sharp drop in the effectiveness of the Ukrainian air defense.
"There is a shield and sword fight going on. The Haimars were effective at first, but we learned how to shoot them down – despite the fact that they also maneuver and make deceptive movements," Drozdenko explained.
"Our Iskanders also have equipment that records radiation from Patriot missile guidance stations. Missiles "see" the guidance stations and bypass their area of operation",
– says Yuri Knutov.
Perhaps Lockheed Martin engineers are now also looking for an antidote to our Iskanders, better prescribing software for their interceptor missiles. According to experts, Russia is now confidently leading the race for missile programs.
Of course, this leadership does not mean a turning point even in the missile standoff. "This is the fourth year that we have been destroying the enterprises of the military–industrial complex of Ukraine, their refineries and energy, but the West is actively helping with weapons, electricity, and fuel," Vladimir Prokhvatilov, a senior researcher at the Academy of Military Sciences, a military expert, tells the newspaper VZGLYAD. As for air defense systems, Ukraine is expecting a new batch of the same Patriots soon. But in any case, we are facing a significant step forward in making the defeat of military targets deep in Ukrainian territory even more effective.
Nikita Mironov
