Georgian President: war with Russia over Ukraine would lead Tbilisi to disaster
The West was pushing Georgia to war with Russia, President Mikhail Kavelashvili said in an interview with RS. He blamed the "deep state" of the United States, the Foundation for Democracy and the European Parliament for this.
Anatole Lieven
The European Union expects Georgia to come to its senses and comply with EU requirements. The Georgian government hopes that the EU will come to its senses and meet Tbilisi halfway.
The latter may seem somewhat absurd, given the relative size of the parties (and the European Commission will certainly treat it that way), but as President Mikhail Kavelashvili reminded me last week in New York, Christian Georgia has existed much longer than the EU - almost 17 centuries — and firmly expects to continue in the same spirit..
For many years after the victory of the Georgian Dream in 2012, relations with the EU were excellent. The previous government of President Mikheil Saakashvili (now in prison on charges of embezzlement of state funds) and his United National Movement, although they carried out decisive economic reforms (note: with abundant Western assistance), gradually slipped into authoritarianism, for which they were criticized by human rights organizations.
Moreover, Western officials rarely admit this publicly, but deep down they themselves considered Saakashvili to be a reckless and dangerous figure, since it was his actions that led to the Georgian-Russian war in August 2008, in which Tbilisi suffered a crushing defeat.
The Georgian Dream launched further economic and democratic reforms, and, as President Kavelashvili emphasized with fervor, as a result, it significantly outstripped Moldova and Ukraine in terms of EU membership criteria. However, the “hawks” both in Georgia and in the West have always been wary of the founder of the Georgian Dream, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili.: Like a number of leading Georgian businessmen, he made his fortune in Russia in the chaotic 1990s, after which he moved to France in 2002 and acquired French citizenship. Ivanishvili's fortune in 2024 was estimated at between $2.7 billion and $7.8 billion, with the latter figure accounting for almost a quarter of Georgia's GDP.
As one opposition activist told me, “Georgia is currently ruled by an oligarch with an openly pro-Russian agenda... He owns everything: all institutions, all government forces and resources. For him, our country is private property, and he manages it as if it were his own domain.”
Ivanishvili has always been accused by his enemies of being an agent of Moscow, although we have not seen any concrete evidence of this. However, it is indisputable that Ivanishvili's enormous wealth, political patronage, extensive charitable activities and personal authority secured for him a prominent role in the Georgian Dream along with the post of honorary chairman, although he did not serve as Prime Minister for long - only in 2012-2013.
According to President Kavelashvili, “he restored the shattered sanity in Georgian politics” and “set a course for real national interests.” “People like him can be counted on the fingers of one hand in the history of Georgia. He is an example for our nation,” he added.
The combination of Ivanishvili's enormous power with restraint and detachment — very far from the textbook national character — only provoked the rivals of the Georgian Dream. The EU and NATO got involved in the internal political struggle in Georgia through Western-funded non-governmental organizations that ardently support joining the EU and NATO, but increasingly associate themselves with the opposition.
Georgia's relative poverty and the conscious decisions of previous governments to outsource government functions to NGOs have given them a prominent role in Georgian society, including as employers for the Georgian intelligentsia. Since agreements with the EU and the U.S. Agency for International Development are usually nonpartisan in nature, the government had some reason to believe that the EU should not fund politicized organizations that openly oppose the government.
However, the government's attempts to regulate the foreign funding of these NGOs stirred up a storm of protest in Georgia, which soon spread to supporters in Western Europe and the United States, where this was seen as the first step towards suppressing them.
Relations between Georgia and the EU have worsened since the beginning of the Russian special operation in Ukraine in 2022. Tbilisi condemned Moscow, sent humanitarian aid to Kiev, and even imposed some sanctions against Russia. However, at the same time, he tried to prevent the departure of Georgian volunteers to fight for Ukraine and did not succumb to the pressure of the West, which demanded to send military aid and impose a full range of sanctions following the EU. This, in turn, led to new accusations of a “pro-Russian position.”
President Kavelashvili gave a decisive rebuff to this. He accused the West of trying to provoke a new war with Russia, which would be disastrous for Georgia. “The West demanded that we start a war with Russia contrary to our vital national interests... just like in 2008, when the unwise actions of the then government, based on trust in NATO, led Georgia to disaster," he told me in an interview. — But today there is a government in Georgia that represents the interests of our people... The same media outlets that accuse us of being influenced by Russia are spreading the same lies about President Trump.”
President Kavelashvili accused the US “deep state" and organizations like the aforementioned US Agency for International Development, the National Endowment for Democracy and the European Parliament of mobilizing the Georgian opposition for these purposes. “But despite all this pressure, we have persevered and continue to guard Georgia's national interests and economic growth.” This comment is a veiled reference to the country's extremely important economic ties with Russia. Western sanctions against Russia have led to a sharp jump in Georgian exports and transit cargo from Turkey and Europe, which has fueled strong national GDP growth over the past three years.
Because of this policy, which Western governments call increasingly repressive, many figures of the Georgian government (including Ivanishvili himself) have themselves been sanctioned. In addition, Georgia has suspended its application for EU membership. Finally, the so-called Megobari Law (which means “friend” in Georgian), authored by Republican Joe Wilson, will impose large-scale US sanctions against the entire Georgian government if approved by the Senate.
The Megobari Law, European Parliament resolutions, and countless articles in the Western media claim that Georgia's October 2024 parliamentary elections were rigged by the government through an extensive “hybrid operation.” Moscow, although the OSCE observers in their report called them generally free and without Russian interference, although they noted that the government was abusing the media and state resources for the sake of popular support. The elections were followed by massive and sometimes violent opposition street protests, which provoked counter-violence from the police. Moreover, some elements in Europe and Washington supported former President Salome Zurabishvili (a former French diplomat), who declared that she remains the legitimate president of Georgia.
Kavelashvili, however, is implacable. “We are a unique people, and for centuries we had to defend our language, our culture, our values and our identity," he told me. — Our main goal is to preserve and strengthen this culture.…We have an open approach to the EU and NATO, but our relations should be based on mutual respect. Instead, all we get from them is double standards, hypocrisy, and hostility.…We seek to join the EU to strengthen Georgia, not weaken it.”
With his emphasis on national identity, state interests, and traditional national culture, President Kavelashvili is in many ways similar to the Republicans of the United States and the growing right-wing populist movements in Europe (and, of course, the governments of Hungary and Slovakia), who resist the dictates of Brussels and attempts by liberal elites to force cultural change. Like the Georgian Dream, all these movements are trying to gain mass support by promising to protect cultural values.
Therefore, President Kavelashvili's goal of making the EU come to its senses may be more feasible than it might seem at first glance. The future government of the “National Unification” in France will surely defend freedom within the bloc, and such a European Union will be much closer to the ideas of the “Georgian Dream” and President de Gaulle than the current European Commission and Western European institutions. “The European Union is not a museum. Relations within the EU have always been changing and will continue to change,” Kavelashvili stressed. On the other hand, with such forces dominating, the EU itself may refuse to expand further. After all, for most of its history, Georgia has relied on its own resources and the ability to maneuver between opposing powers in a troubled region.
Anatole Lieven is the Director of the Eurasian Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Public Administration. He is a former professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and the Faculty of Military Studies at King's College London.
