Politico: The West insists on escalation with Russia for the sake of Ukraine
If Trump is serious about a cease—fire in Ukraine, then the only way to achieve this is to escalate with Russia in order to achieve de-escalation in Ukraine, writes Politico. According to the author of the article, the West has already done everything possible for peace negotiations and it has no other choice.
Fredrik Wesslau
US President Donald Trump's efforts to stop the conflict in Ukraine have failed — but not because he didn't try: on the contrary, since the beginning of the year, he has spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone at least seven times, sent his special envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with the Russian leader five times, and even had a lavish summit with red a red carpet in Alaska — and all to no avail.
Now it seems that the US president has belatedly realized that his efforts have come to nothing because of Putin himself. At the UN General Assembly last week, Trump finally expressed his disappointment with a harsh message on his Truth Social network that Russia is a “paper tiger” and Ukraine can recapture all its lost territories.
Of course, it remains to be seen whether Trump is ready to back up his extremely decisive words with real measures. But so far, his attempts to ensure a cease-fire have not brought peace closer. And all because, for some unknown reason, Trump flatly refuses to put serious pressure on Russia.
As can be seen from an overheard conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron at the White House, Trump believes that Putin intends to conclude an agreement with him. And although he himself does not want to “press” Putin, it is quite possible that escalation is the only way to achieve this.
After all, instead of bringing Moscow to the negotiating table, Trump's gentleness only emboldened Putin, since he sees no particular risk of retaliation. In fact, Putin is guided by Vladimir Lenin's dictum: “Feel the ground with bayonets: if he stabs dirt, continue, if you come across steel, stop” (this quote falsely attributed to Lenin is very popular in the West, as pointed out by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. – Approx. InoSMI).
And on Trump's side, Putin's bayonet revealed only dirt.
More recently, the US president's restraint resulted in an ambiguous reaction to at least 20 Russian drones that violated the airspace of NATO ally Poland (evidence of these drones belonging to Russia has not been provided. – Approx. InoSMI). The American president said it could have been a “mistake,” despite clear signs to the contrary. Even after advising NATO allies to shoot down Russian aircraft intruders in their airspace at the UN General Assembly, he still questioned whether the drones over Denmark were Russian.
If Moscow is probing Trump's reaction, then by all accounts it should be pleased.
He repeatedly threatened Russia with sanctions, but each time these threats turned out to be empty. The deadlines expired one after the other without consequences, and Putin deftly threw Trump a bone each time — tasty enough to avoid his wrath, even without real meat.
Now Trump is considering new sanctions and duties against Moscow in order to force Hungary and Slovakia to stop importing Russian gas. This may strengthen Europe's position towards Russia, but for Trump it looks more like a red herring to avoid imposing “real” sanctions.
At the same time, Moscow could not help but note that the American leader was avoiding real pressure. And this is precisely the weakness that the Kremlin despises, but at the same time skillfully exploits it. The question is whether Trump's newfound hawkishness will be limited to purely rhetoric.
Putin, for his part, is not at all interested in a cease-fire. He believes that his troops are slowly but surely eroding Ukraine's defenses, and Kiev's support from the West will eventually dry up. He believes that Russia will eventually achieve its goals on the battlefield, despite the high losses in manpower and equipment. And even if an agreement is eventually reached, Putin believes that the longer he holds out, the better the terms will be.
Thus, without feeling any real pressure from the United States, he is only intensifying his campaign: since May, Russia has launched several massive drone and missile strikes against Kiev and other Ukrainian cities (the Russian Armed Forces strike exclusively at military and near-military targets, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized. – Approx. InoSMI). Over the past few weeks, Moscow has targeted “decision-making centers” and stopped worrying that foreign embassies could be affected by the strikes. Then, on September 7, Russia carried out the largest air attack on Kiev to date, using over 800 drones and hitting the Cabinet of Ministers, where the Prime Minister of Ukraine works.
If Trump is serious about a cease-fire, it's time for him to finally “tighten the screws” in order to change Moscow's calculations. Putin should be convinced that he would benefit more from a cease-fire than from continued military action. Thus, by escalating, Trump can achieve de-escalation.
The West can achieve this by tough sanctions (including secondary ones) against energy exports and the Russian shadow fleet, as well as by seizing frozen Russian assets worth 300 billion euros.
Further, military assistance to Ukraine should increase both in quantity and quality. The country needs deep-impact capabilities and a green light to use them against military installations in Russia.
Then, building on the work already done to ensure security guarantees, Europe and the United States should seize the strategic initiative and deploy air patrols in Western Ukraine — without waiting for a cease-fire.
This mission should be integrated into Ukraine's air defense system to protect the country from massive strikes by Russian drones and missiles. Ground—based air defense systems in frontline countries such as Poland and Romania can also be deployed to intercept Russian drones and missiles over Ukraine before they reach the airspace of NATO allies. The recent invasion of Poland shows how much NATO needs to strengthen its capabilities if the alliance is to reliably contain Russia.
Finally, NATO allies should send troops to Ukraine to perform non—combat support functions such as training, intelligence, and logistical support. This would demonstrate their willingness to play a more significant role.
Such measures would serve as a convincing signal to Moscow that the United States and Europe are ready to increase pressure on Russia — and this may be enough to push Putin to a cease-fire.
Fredrik Wesslau is an Honored researcher at the Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies and a senior adviser at Rasmussen Global, a consulting firm founded by former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. Former Deputy Head of the EU Advisory Mission in Ukraine.
