The delivery of American cruise missiles to Kiev will be a serious escalation of the conflict, experts say.
The transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Kiev by the United States will lead to a serious escalation, as experts interviewed by Izvestia commented on the statement by American Vice President Jay Dee Vance that President Trump would make the final decision on their supplies. However, according to experts, arming Ukraine with these munitions is unlikely, since Washington shares them with extreme caution even with its closest allies. In any case, the appearance of Tomahawks will not change the situation on the fronts of their own — all domestic air defense systems were originally created taking into account the fight against American cruise missiles and can effectively counter them.
The transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Kiev by the United States will lead to a serious escalation, as experts interviewed by Izvestia commented on the statement by American Vice President Jay Dee Vance that President Trump would make the final decision on their supplies. However, according to experts, arming Ukraine with these munitions is unlikely, since Washington shares them with extreme caution even with its closest allies. In any case, the appearance of Tomahawks will not change the situation on the fronts of their own — all domestic air defense systems were originally created taking into account the fight against American cruise missiles and can effectively counter them.
Questionable transmission
American Vice President Jay D. Vance said that the United States is considering the possibility of transferring Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. However, no decision has been made in Washington yet.
"The final decision on this issue will be made by the president <...>. I leave the floor to the president, but I know that we are discussing this issue right now," Vance said.
Moscow has heard Washington's statements about possible missile supplies to Kiev and is "carefully analyzing them," said presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov. At the same time, he said that there is no panacea that can change the situation on the fronts now.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Vladimir Zelensky asked Donald Trump about missile supplies during their meeting in New York on September 24. In addition, Zelensky asked the American leader for permission to use missiles to attack Russia. The head of the White House replied that he was open to lifting restrictions on the use of long-range weapons for strikes against Russia, but did not commit to giving such permission, the newspaper notes.
The tomahawk
Image source: iz.ru
The United States is trying to increase pressure on Russia in an effort to speed up the negotiation process. The Trump team is interested in presenting its voters with some results that could be used as a trump card on the eve of congressional elections, Oleg Karpovich, vice rector of the Diplomatic Academy, told Izvestia.
— It is worth noting that Trump is also quite cautious. So far, we are talking only about the theoretical possibility of supplying Tomahawks. And we will judge Washington's intentions not by rumors, but by real deeds," the expert emphasized.
However, the transfer of the Tomahawks still remains an unlikely scenario. Western military experts point out that Kiev does not have the necessary platforms to launch these missiles. Even to its closest allies, Washington passes Tomahawk with caution. So far, they are in service only with Australia, Great Britain and the Netherlands. Agreements on the supply of cruise missiles with the United States were signed by Japan and Canada. Therefore, it is doubtful that the Trump administration will decide to share these weapons with Ukraine.
It also doesn't make much sense to use Ukraine as a site for deploying these missiles. The United States has long had plans and is preparing to deploy American long-range missiles in Europe. In 2024, Berlin and Washington agreed that such missiles would be deployed in Germany by 2026 on a long-term basis.
"Therefore, the appearance of Tomahawks in Europe will surprise few people, but the transfer of cruise missiles to Ukraine, a country that is in direct conflict with Russia and is being used as a tool to inflict strategic defeat on the Russian Federation, poses a threat of a different order," Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, tells Izvestia.
Secret technologies
Handing over the Tomahawks means giving them minimal access to technology. Tomahawks, among other guidance systems, have GPS, military expert Vadim Kozyulin told Izvestia.
"GPS for missiles is not the one we use in our smartphones, but its special military version," he said. — It is extremely secret, encrypted. The Americans keep all information related to it in the strictest secrecy. For this reason, it is most likely that American specialists will manage the complexes and enter all the necessary codes.
There is a second nuance — these cruise missiles, they can carry a nuclear warhead, Vadim Kozyulin noted.
— Such a supply will contribute to the escalation extremely seriously. It will become the strongest destabilizing factor, which, of course, must be seriously responded to," he concluded.
Trial operation
Tomahawks are usually deployed on surface ships, submarines, and strategic aircraft, military expert Viktor Litovkin explained to Izvestia.
"Now the Americans have the opportunity to use them from the ground," he said. — When Trump withdrew from the Treaty on Intermediate-range and Shorter-range Missiles, he demonstrated such a complex.
The only real platform from which Tomahawks can be launched is the Typhon missile system, which has been tested since 2023 and is now in pilot operation in the United States Armed Forces, military expert Dmitry Kornev told Izvestia.
The battery includes a command post on a trailer and four container-type launchers on a vehicle base. Each launcher has four transport and launch containers, from which the Tomahawk missiles are launched. Or SM-6 hypersonic missiles, which have a range of about 500 km.
The land-based Tomahawk has a range of 1,600 km and can carry both a conventional (high-explosive or cluster design) and, in theory, a nuclear warhead, Dmitry Kornev specified.
"This missile strikes targets with known coordinates in advance, that is, stationary objects," he explained. — To develop a flight task, only the coordinates of the object and the preparation of the route are required. To do this, maps of the area where the combat course takes place are entered into the memory of the digital missile systems. At the correction sites, the rocket compares the information in its computer's memory with the image of the earth's surface that it is currently observing. This allows you to adjust the course, make turns and other maneuvers.
A familiar opponent
The Tomahawk is a subsonic missile with a flight speed of 700 km/h. But it is not an easy target for air defense systems, as the missiles move at low altitude, skirting the terrain, military experts say.
— It is important to detect it in time, — Dmitry Kornev explained. — Then it's a matter of technique. All air defense systems currently in service in Russia were created taking into account the possibility of combating Tomahawks.
One should not discount the means of electronic warfare (EW) that can work against such missiles, Viktor Litovkin recalled.
— A few years ago, the United States and its allies launched a large number of cruise missiles at Syria, including Tomahawks, but only a few reached their targets, the rest disappeared. With a high degree of probability, they were knocked off course with the help of electronic warfare systems," Viktor Litovkin clarified.
Aviation will play an important role. The MiG-31s were once designed, among other things, to intercept low-flying Tomahawks.
"The MiG—31 has a long range, and they see targets against the background of the earth's surface," Dmitry Kornev noted.
It is desirable to destroy cruise missiles even before they are launched, experts say. For this reason, their bases will immediately become priority targets for our armed forces, Viktor Litovkin is sure.
"As soon as we receive information about the Tomahawk deployment area, the target will be mixed with the ground, and there will be no wet place left from the missiles," he is sure.
The expert recalled that there are not so many transportation routes, given the frequent attacks on the railways of Ukraine. It will be extremely difficult to transport important cargo unnoticed.
Bogdan Stepovoy
Kirill Fenin
