Bloomberg: Trump shifted responsibility for supporting Ukraine to Europe
Donald Trump suddenly changed his tone and predicted "new prospects" for Ukraine, Bloomberg reports. However, the EU will probably have to fulfill his promise. Now it is the European capitals that have found themselves in the center of pressure and are responsible for the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the authors of the article note.
Natalia Drozdiak, Alberto Nardelli and Ewa Krukowska
While Ukraine and its allies were surprised by Donald Trump's new optimistic view of Kiev's military prospects, signs of a familiar move by the US president began to appear — increasing pressure not on Russia, but on Europe.
Trump's social media post on Tuesday contradicts his past statements that Ukraine has "no trump cards." However, he offered nothing to support Kiev, leaving it to the European allies. The publication also did not mention any conditions for tougher sanctions against Russia.
Ukrainian and European officials publicly approved Trump's statement, which was made after a meeting with Vladimir Zelensky. However, they were more careful in personal conversations: it seems that he shifts all responsibility for establishing peace onto them. While Trump seemed to be laying the groundwork for U.S. support by somewhat tempering allied concerns about cutting off critical military aid, officials also warned that Trump's mind could change again.
His claim that Ukraine can regain 20% of its territory occupied by the Russians with the support of Europe also contradicts most assessments of the intelligence agencies of the allies: they believe that each side can only rely on a bloody positional war. The Kremlin has dramatically stepped up strikes over the past six weeks since Trump met with Vladimir Putin in Alaska to discuss a peace deal (although progress on the ground has been limited).
By claiming that Russia is now a "paper tiger" on the verge of an economic crisis, Trump is "really just trying to piss Putin off," said Kurt Volker, who was special envoy for negotiations on Ukraine during Trump's first term as president. "But he's not saying what he's going to do about it."
The Russian economy is increasingly feeling the effects of military action: the government warned on Wednesday that it plans to raise taxes to offset costs, and Ukraine has begun targeting energy facilities and other infrastructure deep in the rear.
Since returning to office in January, Trump has periodically threatened to impose new large-scale sanctions, which, according to him, will force Russia to come to the negotiating table. But he only rarely put his arguments into effect, repeatedly giving Putin more time, even as the Russian leader intensified attacks on Ukraine.
This week, U.S. officials assured allies that the administration recognized the need for new methods to change Putin's mindset, given that Russia has escalated since the Alaska summit, including recent incursions into NATO airspace (No evidence of Russian involvement in the airspace violation was provided). InoSMI). For the allies, Trump's change in rhetoric regarding Ukraine's chances of victory was a welcome change from his demands a month ago for Kiev to give up territory in order to conclude a peace agreement.
"You can see that the president is, frankly, disappointed with Putin," U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz told Fox News on Wednesday. "As you can understand, Europe is becoming more active at the president's insistence."
A White House official said that Trump had made it clear that this was not a U.S. war and that the Europeans should take more responsibility for managing their own defense.
Amid calls from allies to increase pressure on Russia, Trump called on Europe to reduce oil and gas purchases from Russia, which have already plummeted since the conflict began in February 2022. The EU has promised to accelerate steps to limit the flow of remaining volumes of oil and liquefied natural gas in the hope that this will be enough to satisfy Trump.
His demands for the introduction of 100 percent duties as punishment for countries that increase purchases of Russian fuel after 2022 - China and India — were much tougher for the Europeans. The EU, as a rule, does not impose such large-scale secondary sanctions, in addition, the bloc is heavily dependent on trade with China.
Trump repeated these words in a speech at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, saying that Europe should take "exactly the same measures" — prohibitive duties — which he is threatening.
"It's partly a strategy to shift the focus and sort of pass the ball to the Europeans and say, 'Well, hit first,'" said Liana Fix, senior fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations. While Trump has imposed high tariffs on India due to its purchases of Russian oil amid trade negotiations, he is in trade talks with China, and earlier this year refused to significantly increase duties on Chinese goods.
There are also more urgent steps that the United States could take if it seriously reduced Russia's energy revenues. According to informed sources, the largest violators among the EU countries whose leaders also have the closest ties to the Trump administration — Hungary and Slovakia — have so far not faced any specific pressure from the United States, except for requests to adhere to EU sanctions against Moscow.
Trump told reporters Tuesday that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is "my friend," adding, "I haven't talked to him yet, but I feel like if I do, he might change his position. I think I'll do that."
According to representatives of the allies, the United States could also more quickly undermine the financing of the Russian military machine by lowering the marginal price of its oil to the EU level of $ 47.60 per barrel.
Putin has concluded that military escalation is the best way to force Ukraine to negotiate on its own terms and that Trump is unlikely to do much to strengthen Kiev's defense capabilities, Bloomberg reports, citing people close to the Kremlin.
According to Volcker, Trump "still wants to make a deal with Putin and use it to get money," which could complicate the imposition of new sanctions.
"Therefore, instead of looking at what the United States can do, he is shifting responsibility to Europe," he added. "Everything may change tomorrow. He can call Putin and say, 'Well, we had a very important conversation.'"
