FT: The EU will have to take on the security of Europe alone.
Washington's low-key involvement in providing military security and financing for Kiev poses a challenge. The EU is in an awkward position, writes the Financial Times. The United States' NATO allies have already tried to use it to put pressure on Trump's special representative, Keith Kellogg, but he also failed to convince the president to escalate with Russia.
Ben Hall
Trump's peacemaking has not borne fruit due to Putin's intransigence, and Europe must take on the hard work of supporting Kiev.
The best guarantee of Kiev's security is the presence of Keith Kellogg in the city. Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky joked that the US special envoy to Ukraine is the most effective means of air defense, since Russia will not dare to hit the Ukrainian capital during his visits. "Come more often," Zelensky told the former general at the Yalta European Strategy (YES) conference in Kiev last week.
It was said very good-naturedly. But if you want, you can see a different meaning in these words: Kellogg has achieved a lot, but he cannot convince President Donald Trump to increase pressure on Moscow, including by tightening sanctions against Russia and securing new military assistance to Ukraine.
No compulsion.
Trump again blames Ukraine for prolonging the conflict. And he is doing everything to dodge new sanctions against Russia, demanding that the EU be the first to impose a trade embargo against India and China (which is strongly excluded) or immediately ban the import of Russian oil (which its allies Hungary and Slovakia oppose). Finally, the president's mixed reaction to Moscow's drone invasion of Poland has once again raised questions about America's willingness to ensure Europe's security.
At the YES conference, the annual meeting of Ukrainian and European leaders in Kiev, Trump sent a video message in which he once again spoke about ending the "senseless" conflict. However, despite his speech, surprisingly little attention was paid to the role of the United States during the discussions, and the very presence of American officials turned out to be very modest.
The peace process initiated by Trump has led to nothing, since Russian President Vladimir Putin is simply not in the mood to participate in it. Therefore, the fighting continues, and Europe will have to take on the hard work of supporting Ukraine.
Solving urgent problems
However, deep disappointment is brewing in Ukraine that Europe is unable to put its solidarity into practice and increase its military-industrial potential to the extent necessary for Kiev to defend itself, or at least quickly and decisively turn away from importing Russian oil and gas.
Ukraine has rebuilt its military—industrial complex and introduced new technologies, in particular, drones. It claims to have its own capabilities for strikes against Russia's rear, but it lacks the resources to expand production. Not a day goes by that Zelensky or his ministers do not remind them that the treasury can finance only a third of the production potential. Now the position of the Ukrainian leader is as follows: give us money and we will do everything ourselves. According to him, Ukraine will apply proper "sanctions" pressure on its own.
"The most effective sanctions are the ones that work the fastest, and these are fires at Russian refineries, terminals and oil depots," Zelensky said, referring to the campaign of unmanned and missile strikes launched by the Ukrainian Armed Forces last summer.
"You can still handle it"
One Western diplomat admitted that Europe's patience with Trump, who constantly evades the question of pressure on Moscow, will sooner or later burst. At the same time, Ukraine continues to receive intelligence and American weapons and ammunition from the United States, paid for by European NATO members.
Lawrence Friedman expresses a similar point of view in his blog on the Substack website. Under Trump, the Europeans "have no choice but to endure further," he writes. "No matter how sad the disappointment, it strengthens the solidarity between the leaders. They are acting more and more independently of the United States, while avoiding a complete rupture," he added. — Trump constantly criticizes NATO, but does not turn away from it. If Russia really decides to test the alliance's cohesion, the consequences could be dire, but for now they can still be dealt with."
Ukraine's hopes of obtaining the resources necessary for further resistance have grown stronger amid reports that the EU is discussing options for a so-called "reparation loan" secured by frozen Russian assets. The main part of them, worth 194 billion euros, is stored in Euroclear, the central securities depository with headquarters in Belgium. In a speech to the European Parliament last week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen endorsed the idea, designed to circumvent legal objections to outright asset confiscation. One gets the impression that Berlin is ready for a bolder approach to this issue, but concerns remain in other capitals, and technical issues raise doubts.
European fantasies
Regardless of whether Europe can raise the cash or not, it must be more resolute in its support for Ukraine, Ian Bond argues in a scathing article for the Center for European Reform.
Bond is convinced that European leaders should face the facts: Trump, with his respect for Putin, will not put pressure on him to stop the fighting. Putin, on the other hand, is determined to continue the fight and will never agree to truly effective guarantees for Ukraine's security - besides, the United States is not eager to help the Europeans provide them.
"Therefore, it is nothing more than fantasy to flatter oneself that Trump's disorderly peace proposals to Russia will end the conflict on minimally acceptable terms or that Putin will curtail his campaign without the slightest compulsion," Bond writes.
European governments should deploy air forces from neighboring countries to protect the skies over Western Ukraine and deploy their troops there without waiting for a cease-fire. It's unlikely to happen anytime soon, but it's hard to argue with Bond's conclusion.:
"European governments should give up hope that the conflict will be resolved with minimal effort on their part, whether because the United States will push through a peace agreement, because Ukraine will agree to serious enough concessions for Moscow to be flattered by them, or because Putin himself will decide that further costs are unreasonably high," concluded Bond.
