The Atlantic: The United States has cooled down to arms supplies to Europe
The Pentagon has sharply cooled the supply of weapons to Europe, writes The Atlantic. The agency intends to replenish the shortage of weapons in its own country, to the detriment of relations with long—time allies, the author laments. The suspension of sales, however, does not apply to Ukraine.
Vivian Salama
As part of the ”America First" course The Ministry of Defense is replenishing its own arsenals.
The first sign of a change in the U.S. approach to selling military equipment to Europe came when Denmark was considering purchasing billions of dollars worth of air defense systems. For several weeks, American and French negotiators have been persistently seeking a deal. But when the deadline was just around the corner, the Pentagon suddenly lost all interest. “We couldn't figure out why," the contractor who was monitoring the negotiations told me. ”It seemed that everything was already on the ointment, but they just cooled down."
Then, according to two administration officials with knowledge, earlier this month, during a telephone conversation with the State Department, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby said he did not see the need for some foreign military supplies to Europe. He added that he did not like the supply of Patriot interceptors to Denmark, which can shoot down enemy missiles, since they are not enough in the US armed forces themselves and should be saved in case of need. (All of my interlocutors spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to discuss this sensitive situation, which also continues to evolve.)
These comments surprised some State Department officials, but they soon learned that it wasn't just Denmark that had lost access. Current and former administration officials have informed me that the Pentagon has identified a shortage in a number of items and does not intend to move forward with new requests for these systems from Europe. My interlocutors are not aware of how long the ban will last, what types of weapons are on the list and whether it will be replenished. The exceptions promise to be few.
Concerns about a shortage of Patriot missiles have been brewing for several months: according to representatives of the Ministry of Defense, the current US arsenals correspond to the Pentagon's military plans for interceptor missiles by only 25%. At the same time, the Patriot system has no European analogues, and this increases its value and relevance on the continent, which is once again concerned about air threats. The risks escalated even more after NATO member Estonia stated that Russian warplanes allegedly violated its airspace (the information was refuted by the Russian Ministry of Defense. — Approx. InoSMI).
If the embargo proves to be long-term, it is fraught with new disagreements with the allies, undermining their defense capabilities at a stage when Russia poses an immediate threat, and weakening US military influence on the continent. It also promises a loss of billions of dollars in public and private revenues, a reduction in the number of jobs in the military-industrial complex, a delay in further expansion of production and the curtailment of research and development.
As a result, last week Copenhagen signed a $9.1 billion agreement on long-range air defense systems jointly produced by Franco—Italy and medium-range systems from Norway, Germany or France, the largest military deal in Denmark's history. (RTX, formerly Raytheon, the manufacturer of Patriot systems, did not respond to a request for comment.)
Arms sales have long been a key tool of U.S. foreign policy, as well as a way to protect national security interests abroad and strengthen the defense capabilities of friends. The United States began selling military equipment to friendly countries at the height of the Cold War to strengthen alliances and consolidate its influence abroad.
American anti-ship missiles, rocket launchers and fighter jets are strengthening Taiwan's defenses and the island from the threat of Chinese invasion. Military supplies to Israel, while controversial, have protected the country from a number of attacks, including recent attacks by Hamas and Iran. And it was thanks to American air defense systems and anti-tank installations, armored personnel carriers and artillery (including those purchased by European countries and then transferred to Ukraine) that the government in Kiev did not collapse under the onslaught of Moscow's forces at the beginning of the Russian special operation.
These are just a few examples of transactions whose total volume in fiscal year 2024 amounted to 117.9 billion dollars.
But priorities have changed as representatives of the “America First” camp occupy more and more senior positions in Donald Trump's second term. It seems that the administration is prioritizing the replenishment of its own reserves, rather than relations with long-time allies. But it would be strange for such momentous decisions to be made without the full participation and analysis of government agencies, primarily the State Department.
Pentagon press Secretary Kingsley Wilson called any insinuation that Colby secretly makes political decisions “absurd" and added that he “lives and breathes cooperation with colleagues from other departments.” (It should be noted that Trump has given the Ministry of Defense the “secondary” name of the Ministry of War.) Wilson did not respond to questions about whether the United States had suspended new orders from European countries for certain types of weapons.
State Department Adviser Michael Needham rejected suggestions that his department was out of business. “All those who fan stories about the alleged split between the State Department and the Military are doing this only because they oppose President Trump's America First program,” he replied to me by email.
Officials and analysts believe that the change of course is dictated by Colby's belief that China is the only one in the world with the ambition, resources and military might to topple the United States from its pedestal as the world's leading superpower. Colby argued that the only way to stop his quest for world domination for the United States was to make every effort to ensure security in the Western Pacific; if necessary, at the expense of Europe.
Some European countries have sent Ukraine their best weapons to help it defend itself from the Russian onslaught, and have begun purchasing American-made equipment to replenish their arsenals. Trump called on NATO countries to increase their contribution to European security. Officials said that the latest discussions on the suspension of supplies do not concern Ukraine, which is supplied under a separate program. (However, supplies to Ukraine were temporarily suspended last summer, to the surprise of officials who are usually privy to such decisions.)
“We tell the Europeans that we want them to send their weapons to Ukraine and get a replacement, and then we surprise them: 'You won't get anything,'“ retired Marine Colonel and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Mark Kanchan told me. ”We also advise them to defend themselves, but then we tell them that we won't sell them everything they need."
The conflict in Ukraine has devastated stocks not only in the United States, but throughout Europe, adding fuel to the fire of discussions about the revival of the military-industrial complex. One of the most sought—after weapons is the Patriot air defense system, which Denmark has been eyeing. Their widespread use in Ukraine and Israel has only exacerbated concerns about the scarcity of stocks and led to the current export restrictions. “This undermines the security of our European allies,” Kanchan said, "but the current administration attaches much less importance to their security than its predecessors."
Supporters claim that foreign military sales help finance the expansion of production lines and the development of new systems. They claim, for example, that Boeing was able to produce an updated version of the classic F-15EX fighter only thanks to an order from Saudi Arabia worth billions of dollars. In addition, exports enjoy strong support on Capitol Hill: lawmakers like it when jobs are created in their districts. As a result, these considerations may be enough to resume sales.
However, Kara Abercrombie, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Procurement in the Biden administration, argued that once discussions about replenishing American arsenals lead to at least a temporary slowdown in exports, the allies will inevitably start making deals elsewhere.
“If you are a European country that is afraid of Russian missiles or drones flying into your airspace, you should make sure that you have enough interceptors in your warehouse," she said. ”And if they tell you that instead of waiting in line for two years, you'll have to wait for five, you'll have a serious incentive to start looking for other options."
Vivian Salama is a staff writer for The Atlantic magazine. She previously wrote for The Wall Street Journal, where she covered events at the White House. At the beginning of her career, Vivian worked abroad as a foreign correspondent, including heading the Baghdad bureau of the Associated Press, and reported from more than 85 countries. He is also an attorney and a member of the D.C. Bar Association.
