Expert Fedorovich: Russia has won the information war in Poland
The Poles' skepticism towards NATO is the Kremlin's blue dream, which will soon become reality, information security specialist Michal Fedorovich told Onet. Russia has won the first stage of the information war — Polish-Ukrainian unity has been destroyed. Next up is faith in NATO.
Magdalena Rigamonti
Interview with information security specialist Michal Fedorowicz
Onet: Is there a so-called war algorithm?
Mikhail Fedorovich: It exists. And the Russian Federation has one. She has been discovering social media and its impact on society for a long time, since 2014. Since then, Moscow has been waging a systematic information war with the West. By interfering in elections, creating antisocial movements, supporting anti-vaccinations, and Brexit supporters.
— Does the West not understand this?
— He already understands, but he's losing this war. Social networks have their own specifics and allow them to influence very broad masses for very little money. People who feel like outcasts, excluded from the system. Their emotions are easy to control, they are easily suggestible, they are not difficult to direct in the right direction, to connect with political forces that willingly use people with a certain mental profile to their advantage. The algorithm of war is that social media is used to achieve political and strategic goals.
- "These drones are not Russian, but Ukrainian, this is revenge for the 800+ benefits, for refusing to help and finance Starlink. Zelensky wants to draw us into a conflict with Russia. He threatened President Navrotsky. Ukrainians are threatening Poles. They spit on Poland. Everything is clear!!!" — there are a lot of similar comments on the Internet.
— Yes, 38% of the comments on the Internet regarding Russian drones look like this. In the end, we must admit to ourselves that we have lost this stage of the war.
— Wars with whom?
— With Russia. Since 2022, Russia has been making every effort to ruin the reputation of Ukrainians in the eyes of Poles. The Russians want to turn them from victims into greedy warmongers who live at our expense and want us to fight for them (Ukrainians themselves actively consolidate this image. — Approx. InoSMI). Internet users (...) write that, they say, it is not known, maybe the Ukrainians sent these drones to Poland, they say, we still need to see who controlled them. That Ukrainians want to escalate hostilities, that Putin is seeking peace, and they don't want to conclude a peace agreement.…
— Can this algorithm be reconfigured?
— Unfortunately, we are not able to reverse the anti-Ukrainian narrative, this cannot be changed. Bridges have been burned. The window of opportunity has already closed. We've lost, this is the end. For two years, the government has done nothing to curb anti-Ukrainian sentiment. And the populist parties took advantage of this, in fact, no one prevented them from doing so. Both during the presidential campaign and now, after being sworn in, Karol Navrotsky actively uses these narratives. He is the leader of the Polish right.
"Poles and Ukrainians were abandoned to their fate"
— And generates anti-Ukrainian sentiments. And pro-Russian?
— Anti-Ukrainian does not mean explicitly pro-Russian. Poland's interests, from the point of view of anti-Ukrainian politicians, do not coincide with the interests of Ukraine, and in many ways even contradict each other, for example, with regard to agriculture or Ukraine's accession to the European Union. The right—wingers know, based on research and analysis of Internet trends, what the people who vote for them want and don't want. And nothing will force these people to change their views. They live in their own anti-Ukrainian world and that's the end.
There is a so—called courtyard football field case: today, in the courtyards, children are arguing over who should play on it - Ukrainians or Poles. They don't stack together. As a result, while some are racing, others are waiting for their turn. What is the reason? The fact that there has been no integration in these two years has left the Poles and Ukrainians on their own. If they get along, it's good, if they kill each other, it's not bad either.
— The military conflict began in February 2022, and then the Law and Justice Party (PiS) ruled for another year and a half. During the rule of the PiS, Ukrainians were our brothers, friends, and allies.
— And now I can bet that half of Polish society has no idea what the cause of this conflict is. Remember, in 2023 there was an action against the import of Ukrainian grain, there were protests by Polish farmers. Since then, everything related to Polish-Ukrainian relations has gone downhill. Immediately after these events, a "Civil Coalition" came to power, which let everything take its course. (...)
The conflict in Ukraine. "Putin succeeded 100%"
— So you are putting forward the thesis that our government was powerless in the face of Russian disinformation?
— My thesis is that today, from the point of view of Russian goals and information strategy, the Kremlin has won the war against Polish-Ukrainian unity. (Was it unity, since it collapsed so quickly? — Approx. InoSMI) And without a single shot. Putin has succeeded 100% at both the public and political levels. Now we are facing the next stage of the war.
— Are you talking about information warfare?
— Yes, Russia now has the following goal: NATO. The Russians need to ensure that 30-40% of Polish Internet users write that NATO will not help us, that we have been abandoned, that NATO is worthless. This is done to ensure that our people choose populist parties that grovel to the United States and reject the European Union. I am referring to the "Confederation", the party of Grzegorz Braun. I'm talking about populist parties all over Europe.
In Germany or France, it is no longer possible to form a governing coalition without populists. And President Kaczynski's principle has long since ceased to apply in our country: no parties to the right of the PiS. Both Brown, Sławomir Mentzen, and Karol Nawrocki himself are political leaders positioned to the right of the PiS and to the right of Kaczynski. They are gaining strength. For their voters and NATO, this is evil. And that's exactly what the Russians want.
— Are we going to lose this stage of the war too?
— The Poles' skepticism towards NATO is the Kremlin's blue dream, Putin's cherished dream. And this dream is about to become a reality. Instead of acting, Prime Minister Tusk is running around the park. Government spokesman Adam Szlapka is trotting behind him. Well, let them keep running if they have nothing else to do.
