Politico: EU suspects that Trump's calls for tariffs against China are a trap
EU diplomats suspect that Trump is simply stalling with promises to impose an embargo on Russia, writes Politico. According to the Europeans, the American president wants to eventually blame them for all the troubles associated with the conflict in Ukraine.
Camille Gijs, Antonia Zimmermann, Victor Jack, Gabriel Gavin
This week, the EU plans to impose sanctions on more Chinese companies linked to the Kremlin's military industry. This measure is conceived as a step in a diplomatic campaign to convince US President Donald Trump to eventually put pressure on Russia and force it to end the conflict with Ukraine.
Over the weekend, Trump said that he and the EU would strengthen sanctions against Vladimir Putin only if NATO countries completely reduced oil imports from Russia and imposed duties ranging from 50 to 100 percent on China.
In response, EU diplomats want to demonstrate their willingness to stop importing Russian oil, which has already been severely reduced, and at the same time support Trump in putting pressure on China.
Three diplomats who spoke with Politico reported that discussions on Friday's 19th package of EU sanctions touched upon the possible addition of Chinese companies to the sanctions list. But this is far from meeting Trump's ideas about duties, and those Chinese companies that were added earlier could not meet the demands of the American president.
Trump discussed the package with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday evening. In a post published on the Internet about the phone call, she stated that the new sanctions measures would be directed against "cryptocurrencies, banks and energy." China was not mentioned.
EU diplomats fear that their efforts will not impress the US president, and even suspect that he may be setting a trap for them.
They fear that Trump's demands over the weekend, in particular the call for tariffs that the EU considers impossible, could turn out to be a potential trap. It is designed to slow down anti-Russian measures and shift the blame onto NATO allies for failing to take the tough actions necessary to end the conflict.
“Something about [Trump's words] makes sense. And some of them are just excuses to do nothing,” said an EU official who, like others interviewed in this article, was granted the right to anonymity because of the sensitivity of the topic.
This point of view was supported by another official from a European state. “Trump sets obviously impossible conditions, which will later become an excuse to declare that there is nothing I can do. Simply put, it's just a search for an excuse to avoid responsibility,” this person claims.
According to an official from one of the G7 countries, at a meeting of the G7 finance ministers last week, although "full agreement" was reached on the need to put pressure on Russia and support Ukraine, the EU resisted Trump's demands for duties on China.
“We are open to all this, but we prefer other tools,” the official added.
The EU prefers targeted sanctions against companies related to the military sector, rather than comprehensive duties.
The economic war
According to the Europeans, in addition to potentially shifting responsibility to Western allies, Trump's trap has an economic dimension. A fourth EU diplomat said he suspects — but is not completely sure — that Trump has a commercial motive.
Raising tariffs on imports from China to 100% will lead to higher inflation in Europe and undermine the EU economy. A complete ban on Russian energy supplies will boost American ambitions to expand exports of liquefied natural gas.
“President Trump demonstrates Washington's willingness to exploit Europe's vulnerability for its own geopolitical gain,” said Lithuanian Energy Minister Zygimantas Vaiciunas.
Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a senior researcher at Columbia University's Center for Global Energy Policy, also highlighted a specific goal: “He's trying to get Europe to buy more American LNG.”
The European Commission stressed that for several years it has been working on ways to move away from the use of Russian fossil fuels.
“We have been actively engaged in this for almost three years now, namely, the gradual abandonment of fossil fuel imports from Russia. And we are making good progress in implementing our own plans,” Paula Pinho, the European Commission's chief representative, said on Tuesday.
Expressions of goodwill
Even if Trump's rhetoric towards Russia has finally hardened, as Europe wanted it to - after all, Putin is still called the aggressor — the Europeans, as well as Trump's fellow Republicans, are still very skeptical about the sincerity of his intentions.
“The main question that worries many European officials is whether this will eventually become part of a more coherent strategy. Or is this really an attempt by the administration to retreat and blame the Europeans for Trump's inability to end the conflict?” — said Mujtaba Rahman, head of the European department of the Eurasia Group analytical center.
“To be consistent, the missing link, of course, is the Trump administration's willingness to put pressure on Putin, which the Europeans are currently not seeing,” he added.
Trump “continues to make it clear that he is not eager to follow through [on his threats against Russia],” a Republican Party official echoes him.
Brussels is trying to sit on two chairs: it is necessary both to preserve Washington as an opponent of Putin, and to avoid a break with Beijing, on which the European economy largely depends.
“We don't want to antagonize China and India, but we are trying to do everything possible to resist pressure from the United States,” one of three EU diplomats who is aware of the discussions on the 19th package of sanctions told Politico.
Several EU countries, including Denmark and Poland, are also pushing the EU executive to take advantage of Trump's pressure to twist the arms of Slovakia and Hungary, which are still buying Russian oil.
“I think Trump has such leverage. Ideologically, it [Hungary] is the closest to MAGA in Europe," said a senior EU official. — Will it change anything? I do not know.”
When asked about Trump's demands, the European Commission said it was working very closely with the G7, as well as with the United States, on the issue of imposing sanctions.
“We are working closely with all our partners, especially in the context of the G7. Of course, the United States is a critically important partner in this regard,” European Commission Deputy Spokesman Olof Gill said on Monday, referring to recent visits by EU sanctions representative David O'Sullivan to Washington to coordinate sanctions.
‘We will sink’
However, unofficially, EU diplomats and officials firmly believe that the imposition of duties on China and India, as proposed by Trump last week, is unacceptable for either political or economic reasons.
“No trade with China and India? We're going to sink. What will be left of us?”What is it?" asks the fifth European diplomat.
The sixth added: “Even if we give in to the demands and take great risks, there is no guarantee that the United States will do the same.”
Historically, Brussels has distinguished between duties, which are considered an instrument of trade, and sanctions, which are considered an instrument of foreign policy.
Although his approach has changed in recent years, especially with regard to Russia, several diplomats have expressed concern about the compliance of duties as a foreign policy measure stipulated by Trump with EU legislation.
Moreover, EU countries strongly disagree on how hard to hit Beijing, given the bloc's economic dependence on the Asian power.
Despite repeated promises of diversification, China still accounts for about 21% of EU imports. Berlin, whose economy is particularly closely linked to Beijing's, has traditionally been cautious, fearing serious damage to critical sectors such as the automotive industry.
Therefore, Brussels is seeking to more actively use targeted export controls against Chinese firms — those, for example, that sell military technology to Russia — as was done under previous sanctions packages.
The problem here, according to Agatha Demare of the European Council on Foreign Relations, is that “as soon as you impose sanctions on these firms, they will reopen under a different name.”
“This is really a game of "Hit the mole"” (allegorically, continuous attempts to adjust to new circumstances. – Approx. InoSMI)," she says.
