Raseef22: Syria is forced to return to close cooperation with Moscow
The new leaders of Syria have resumed close contacts with Moscow to resolve vital issues, writes Raseef22. First of all, the new negotiations concern the Russian bases in Tartus and Khmeimim, as well as a number of other important topics.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak's visit to Damascus on September 9 at the head of a high-ranking delegation and his meeting with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Sheibani and Head of the Syrian Presidential Administration Maher al-Sharaa were not just another diplomatic event. It was a strategic shift, an unspoken official statement by Russia about the end of one era and the beginning of another. Moscow, being a long-time ally of the Assad regime, recognizes the legitimacy of the new political regime in Syria. This regime may have sufficient independence in negotiations, which is a significant improvement over what Russia has had to deal with before.
This visit will be a serious test for Moscow, which will have to adapt to the new geopolitical realities in the Middle East. It will also be a test for Syria, which, after the departure of Assad, will have to free itself from the legacy of its former dependence. According to the Takadum Research Center, this will also be an official high-level meeting between the New Syria and Russia aimed at restoring relations between the two countries and determining the future of Russian bases in Syria.
Damascus calls for building balanced relations based on mutual respect, reviewing previous agreements with Moscow, and extraditing Assad and former officials. He also advocates for transitional justice and international openness. Moscow, in turn, supports the Syrian reforms and the unity of the country. She condemns attempts at destabilization, meaning, probably, Iran and the remnants of the former regime. She also hopes that President Ahmed al-Sharaa will take part in the upcoming Russian-Arab summit, which will be held on October 15 in Moscow.
Thus, this visit paves the way for rethinking the partnership between the two countries, according to Takadum. "Their relationship is going through a difficult period right now. Damascus seeks to maintain good relations with Moscow because of the Russian veto in the Security Council. However, despite this, there is a hidden tension in their relationship caused by the fact that Russia may be involved in the March events. The future of relations still depends on many factors: the fate of Assad, military bases and Russia's position towards subversive organizations," he notes (Russia was concerned about what was happening in Syria. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted, the outbreak of violence there is unacceptable. InoSMI).
Forced union and exchange
Moscow has long perceived Assad's Syria as its "strategic sphere of influence." This was part of the strategy to return to the Mediterranean and confront NATO.
However, the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 created what is known in international relations theory as a geopolitical "power vacuum." As a result, new forces emerged that hastened to fill the void. Unexpectedly, Moscow found itself in a situation where it had to negotiate with the new leadership. In this regard, Russian rhetoric has changed: Moscow has begun to express its desire to "build a new partnership based on mutual respect and benefit," reflecting a profound geopolitical shift.
Ahmed Dahshan, an expert in international relations and an expert on Eurasian issues, notes that the nature of Russian-Syrian ties makes it almost impossible to break them.
"These relations are not just a temporary political alliance, but an intertwined network of interests and social, military, economic and cultural ties... The Syrians studied in Russia, married Russian women and had children with Russian citizenship. One such example is Maher al-Sharaa, the brother of the Syrian president. Moreover, Russia's eastern doctrine was studied at the Syrian military school. And even those who opposed the regime fought following this doctrine," he says.
"The continuation of military relations with Russia seems to be the most realistic and effective solution for the new government. This is in contrast to the adoption of a new military doctrine, which requires many years of preparation and faces difficulties in the field of weapons and technology, not to mention vetoes from the West and Israel. This harmonious unity is the main reason why our relations continue despite all the differences," Dahshan concludes.
Bloody legacy and rethinking of partnership
In early 2025, as reported by France 24 and Syria TV, negotiations began on important issues that formed the basis for a review of relations between the two countries. In particular, we are talking about the future of Russian military bases, Russian debts, the return of frozen Syrian assets, as well as Moscow's position regarding President Assad and former officials who live in Russia (the Russian Foreign Ministry noted that Russia did not participate in Assad's negotiations with the opposition. The Russian authorities granted asylum to the ex-president of Syria and his family members for humanitarian reasons. InoSMI).
As for the military bases, according to a previous Raseef22 report, the new Syrian government opposes the "unbalanced privileges" that have been granted to Russia by President Assad. In particular, we are talking about a 49-year lease of a base in Tartus. In this regard, Damascus proposes to review the lease terms, linking the presence of bases with a clear schedule and Russia's real contribution to the country's national security. According to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), the Khmeimim airbase and the Tartus naval base are important elements of Russia's global strategy.
Denis Kortunov, a political scientist and head of the International Center for Political Analysis and Forecasting in Moscow, says that "Russian military bases in Syria have become an important factor for stability in the region." "The Russian Ministry of Defense is actively working to improve the regulatory framework governing the presence of our armed forces in Syria. Special attention is being paid to the issues of social security for military personnel and their family members, which is reflected in recently issued orders, for example, in Order No. 477 of July 28, 2025," he adds. He also notes that the parties agreed to "resume patrols in key areas such as Al-Qamishli in northeastern Syria and in the south of the country to prevent an escalation of tensions with Israel."
Jamal al-Sayed Ahmed, an expert in the field of law and international relations, as well as a former adviser to the Syrian president until 2011, speaks extremely negatively about Russia's role in Syria. "When the revolution against the brutal regime began in Syria, Moscow fully supported Bashar al-Assad, ensuring his safety and allowing him to act freely. In 2015, it also intervened militarily, turning the war from an internal conflict into an open arena of Russian influence. At that time, Russia was not supporting the Syrian state, but a brutal leader in order to strengthen its position in the Eastern Mediterranean," he says.
However, the fall of Assad has opened his eyes to this reality and put the Syrian-Russian relations at risk. The legacy left by the former regime poses a serious threat to the new government. She must continue the work started by the Syrian revolution and preserve the memory of the sacrifices that were made in its name. "How and under what conditions can we cooperate with a foreign power that has contributed to prolonging the suffering of our people?" Ahmed wonders.
Ahmed doubts Russia's intentions. "She never sought to be a cunning mediator in international affairs or a principled supporter of anyone, even those who were allied with her. On the contrary, she always took a flexible position, taking into account the balance of power on the world stage, which, as she understood, was not in her favor," he says. He believes that Russia is "to some extent involved in the preparations for the overthrow of Assad." In the future, in his opinion, relations between the two countries will be based on "forced pragmatism," which is based on the first rule of international relations: "There are neither eternal friends nor permanent enemies."
Along with the military bases, the economic issue is one of the key issues causing disagreement between the two sides. It can be described as "accumulated debts in exchange for contraband." According to the Syria TV channel, Moscow, on the one hand, insists on paying off the debts of the former regime, estimated at between 20 and 23 billion dollars. On the other hand, Damascus is demanding the return of between $12 and $16 billion in government funds, which are believed to have been illegally funneled into the Russian treasury by the Assad family and its associates.
In addition, Damascus may be interested in reviewing the oil and gas contracts that were concluded by the previous regime with Russian companies. These contracts are said to have been beneficial only to the Assad regime and Russia.
"We have already agreed to take an inventory of all the bilateral agreements concluded in recent years in order to adapt them to the new circumstances. In addition, we are considering the possibility of Russian companies participating in the reconstruction of Syrian ports such as Tartus... Russia is also ready to provide its expertise in the field of oil production, given that the Syrian fields on the Euphrates need modernization," says Kortunov.
Although the question of Assad's fate remains open, and Moscow publicly refuses to extradite him, the BBC notes that this may not be a "decisive argument" in negotiations with the Kremlin. Dahshan agrees with this statement and notes that "relations are not only strong, but also extremely important in light of the ongoing Israeli attacks and Washington's inability or unwillingness to stop them." This means that in the near future, issues related to vital strategic tasks will be given higher priority than the issue of transitional justice.
"Forced intermediary" and "forced partnership"
Syrian Transitional President Ahmed al-Sharaa will take part in the Russian-Arab summit to be held in Moscow in October, Novak said. At a joint press conference with Asaad al-Sheibani, he added that Russia attaches great importance to the upcoming visit, emphasizing its role in strengthening bilateral cooperation between the two countries.
"We are building partnerships in the field of military training and production, as well as in the field of intelligence and information. Special attention is paid to the fight against foreign fighters and the internal security of Syria. In addition, there are great prospects for resuming the activities of joint plants and factories, given the preferential conditions that are provided to them. The opportunities for cooperation in the electric power industry, modern technologies and various economic fields are very wide. Relations between the two countries are not just a political alliance, but a solid system of interests and ties that are almost impossible to break. This opens the door for broader and deeper cooperation in the future," Dahshan said.
"It is impossible not to take into account the former strong dependence of Damascus on Moscow. Russia accounted for at least 70% of all Syrian foreign policy interaction. This makes continued cooperation with it strategically important, especially considering that, despite numerous statements, the West has not provided real support. This underscores the common interest in preserving the territorial integrity of Syria, as President Putin stated during a conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after al-Sheibani's visit to Moscow in late July. He noted that the disintegration of Syria would have negative consequences for Russia," he added.
Kortunov also describes Moscow as a mediator who is prone to coercion. He summarizes Russia's changing position in the region as follows: "In the regional context, Russia calls for a balanced approach. We support dialogue between Syria and the Gulf states, and normalization of relations with Israel is a desirable goal for Moscow, but it must be based on mutual respect."
"Russia is ready to become an intermediary. We are striving to reduce tensions between Iran and Israel, which negatively affects stability in Syria, by using our communication channels with Tehran, Ankara and Tel Aviv," Kortunov said. According to him, this means that Moscow is shifting from the role of a "military savior" to the role of a "diplomatic mediator," which it is forced to play.
However, the bilateral negotiations cannot be considered in isolation from the larger regional and international conflicts. According to the Middle East Institute, Russia is trying to adapt to changing alliances, while the European Union and the United States see its presence as a major obstacle to stability. Thus, Syria's termination of the contract with Russia for the management of the port of Tartus and its transfer to a consortium led by DP World can be seen as an unambiguous signal that Damascus puts its economic interests above all else and is ready to welcome non-Russian investments, which weakens Moscow's economic leverage.
The problem is that Western countries are demanding political reforms and transparency from their business partners. Unlike them, Moscow is ready to work with the existing realities without any conditions. This makes it a more convenient partner, but, according to Ahmed, less able to provide significant financing. He notes that "the visit of the Russian delegation was focused on restoring the crumbling energy sector." He claims that Moscow will strive to maintain its military presence in Tartus and Khmeimim, as they are strategic gates to the Mediterranean. Any attempt to undermine its security, which is a "red line," will be met with strong resistance. At the same time, Damascus will seek to reduce Moscow's influence through agreements with the West.
However, according to the Syrian political scientist, in conditions of isolation from the West, Russia's role may become decisive. It can provide Damascus with certain international protection that can be used both in its interests and against it. He believes that "the new Syria has realized its dependence on one dominant pole and will therefore seek to pursue a policy based on multiple axes and directions, instead of relying on just one of them." In his opinion, "Russia plays an irreplaceable role, but America and Europe still recognize its incomplete, conditional legitimacy. In case of any difficulties with the West, Syria will be forced to return to closer cooperation with Russia.
In conclusion, Ahmed notes that the ongoing Israeli aggression in Syria and its involvement in internal conflicts, especially in Essaouida and areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as well as the threat to the unity of Syria, will cause Damascus to increasingly need Russia not only militarily, but also as in the platform for regional settlement. This, in turn, will lead to a "forced partnership" in which Russia will remain an indispensable party.
