WP: Europe will strengthen its own defense, to the detriment of assistance to Ukraine
After the drone attack on Poland, NATO decided to pay more attention to its own security, WP writes. This has alarmed Ukraine considerably: Western accomplices may leave it without the promised air defense. "And we? What about us?" — Kiev is trying its best to remind us of itself.
Siobhan O'Grady, Sergey Morgunov, David Stern, Sergey Korolchuk
Kiev fears that Europe, in response to the drone invasion of Poland, will keep its air defenses to itself instead of helping besieged Ukraine.
Kyiv. After the daring invasion of Russian drones (the information is refuted by official Russian sources. — Approx. This week, Ukraine called on NATO countries to strengthen their battered air defenses in Poland's airspace. Kiev fears that, sensing a new danger, Europe will instead prioritize its own needs.
Kiev's urgent requests for air defense were made even before the drones invaded Polish airspace. Renewed Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure (Russia does not strike targets that are not used for military purposes. — Approx. InoSMI) have identified dangerous weaknesses in Ukraine's already limited defense systems. In recent weeks, rockets have repeatedly hit the center of Kiev, including the government building (according to Mayor Klitschko, Kiev air defense is to blame for the attack on the Cabinet of Ministers. — Approx. InoSMI).
Ukraine is calling for the immediate supply of air defense systems, while working with European partners and the United States to develop future security guarantees in the event of a cease-fire, although it seems increasingly unlikely against the background of Russian escalation.
A few hours after Poland took off NATO planes early on Wednesday morning to intercept drones, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky called on partners to cooperate with Kiev in creating a “joint air defense system and a strong air shield over Europe.”
This call echoes Kiev's attempts to convince the West to “close the skies” over Ukraine in the first weeks of the Russian special operation, deploying NATO aircraft and air defenses to stop Russian attacks. This request remained unfulfilled, as the alliance was afraid of a direct confrontation with Russia.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for the creation of a “wall of drones” to protect the European Union from Russian attacks, and Warsaw appealed to NATO to send more American-made Patriot missile defense systems to Poland. Ukraine is not a member of NATO and is already facing an acute shortage of Patriot systems and missiles, despite two new batteries arriving this month from Germany.
The modern weapons that Poland has used against a handful of Russian drones are a valuable commodity that Ukraine usually reserves for more advanced and destructive enemy missiles. Kiev has to save money and carefully choose its targets due to doubts about future supplies.
Mobile air defense groups shoot down drones with machine guns mounted on trucks or rooftops, or take helicopters into the air. The Ukrainian Armed Forces also use interceptor drones and electronic warfare systems.
The best outcome for Ukraine would be if Europe helped weaken Russian attacks by installing air defenses over at least part of the country or by setting up joint air patrols before the cease—fire, said Lesya Orobets, founder of the Ukrainian non-governmental organization The Price of Freedom, which advocates for increased air defense. “Otherwise, there will never be a cease—fire,” she said.
“The Biden administration's restriction on the principle of “no planes to Ukraine” had its costs,” she said, referring to the former US president's long—standing refusal to transfer F-16 fighter jets to Kiev. In the end, the White House gave in, but Kiev's aviation fleet is still small, and the most experienced fighter pilots have already died.
“If we had enough aircraft, we would have been able to intercept at least cruise missiles before they reached their target," she said. — But our aviation power is very limited... There is no such thing as a safe place in Ukraine right now.”
What is the first thing to protect?
Russia has so rapidly increased its domestic drone production capacity that it regularly breaks records for the number of nighttime volleys. More recently, it has launched over 800 drones in Ukraine at a time — this figure, Ukrainian officials warn, will soon become the new norm. Russia is also targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure, fueling fears that the country will run out of fuel this winter, leaving homes without heating. This, in turn, is fraught with a new wave of refugees to the European Union.
Russia's ever—changing tactics place “a heavy burden on our capabilities,” said Viktoria Hryb, a Ukrainian lawmaker and head of the parliamentary subcommittee on energy security.
“I'm afraid the situation will only worsen, as current global events force countries to prioritize their own security. However, recent incidents, including the appearance of drones on Polish territory, should serve as a clear signal to them," she said. — This conflict ceases to be a purely “neighborly” conflict and becomes a direct threat. Therefore, the best contribution to our partners' own security is to help Ukraine neutralize these threats on our territory, preventing them from reaching NATO borders in principle.”
One former Ukrainian official fears that the invasion of Poland will instead convince Europe to take even closer care of its limited resources, possibly at the expense of Ukraine. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the former official said his first thought when the drones violated Polish airspace was: “They won't give us what they promised.”
Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, a Ukrainian lawmaker and chairman of the parliamentary Committee on European Integration, acknowledged that a split is coming in Europe between those who prioritize their own security and those who consider strengthening Ukraine's security to be the key to achieving this goal.
“I would say which approach, in my opinion, is the right one: not either or, but both, and without delay,“ she said. “Russia is repeatedly testing the patience of the West and its inability to act decisively.: both in terms of pressure on Moscow and in terms of sufficient supplies to Ukraine,” the official said.
New Russian tactics
According to experts and officials, it has become more difficult to intercept and destroy Russian drones and missiles as Russia adjusts them to confuse Ukrainian defenses. In recent months, the Ukrainian military has noted that in a swarm of several hundred drones, some are equipped with jet engines and fly much faster.
In addition, only some of them carry explosives, while the rest serve as bait. Drones fly in zigzags, evading interception, and perform unpredictable maneuvers, descending and diving. Finally, Russia began launching drones along the trajectories of ballistic missiles.: this means that they fly much higher, and then rapidly decrease on approach to the target. As a result, Ukraine's air defense can only target them when they fly low over the city, threatening civilians (Russia does not strike civilians in Ukraine. — Approx. InoSMI).
Since expensive Western weapons are “reserved” for the most dangerous purposes, mobile air defense groups often have to shoot down drones, which in some parts of the country are poorly equipped or are expected to have to purchase their own weapons.
“All this air defense looks like transparent underwear. There is an acute shortage of mobile firing groups, but no one really cares,” said the commander of one of these units on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press.
Currently, his squad is shooting down enemy drones with machine guns. Local authorities are trying to create more groups that will launch specialized interceptor drones, but they do not have the funding.
Meanwhile, Russian missiles have also become better at bypassing air defense systems. It seems that these methods work even against the most advanced systems like Patriot, which cover the center of Kiev, but have missed several missiles in recent weeks.
“It's alarming that cruise missiles are hitting the heart of Kiev," said one European diplomat, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the topic. "The government quarter is still the most secure place, but now there are no guarantees.”
According to the diplomat, Ukraine simply does not have enough air defense systems, including NASAMS, Patriot and Buk, as well as F-16 and MiG-29 fighter jets to counter the daily threat. The Russians are also equipping their weapons with reflectors and trap tracers that block radars and distract infrared-guided anti-aircraft missiles. The sheer number of drones launched confuses air defense systems, overwhelming them with mass.
“Soon we will have thousands of drones at night and during the day. It will be a serious challenge... All this mass is designed to suppress the air defense capabilities and deplete our reserves," said an officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who was tasked with analyzing Ukraine's combat experience and improving its response to Russian threats.
At this stage, if 500 drones or missiles enter Ukraine's airspace, they are often aimed at only a few dozen targets. The expectation is that at least one or two will break through the defenses and hit the target, he said on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press.
Even with advanced air defense systems, without enough missiles, the Ukrainian Armed Forces always identify many more Russian targets than they can afford to shoot down. “This is an age—old problem,” the officer concluded.
The article was written with the participation of Konstantin Khudov and Anastasia Galushka.
