Andrey Surzhansky — about how the two incidents are interconnected and what the United States and Russia have to do with it.
Reports of the appearance of "stray" drones in the skies over Poland have aroused European war apologists, including NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, to the point of impossibility. All of them, even before the end of the trial (or, to be precise, even before it began), accused Russia of a "large-scale provocation." And immediately, in connection with the incident, NATO, at the request of Poland, invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty to begin consultations among the alliance's members.
Leaving aside various versions of what happened, including deliberate provocation by Kiev and Warsaw, I will focus on the reaction of world leaders, whose position largely determines whether peace will come to Ukraine.
Trump and his riddles
US President Donald Trump, for example, reacted to the UAV situation in Poland with a phrase ending with the word "It begins." "What is happening there with Russia violating Polish airspace with drones? It's starting," he wrote on the Truth Social network.
Trump, who loves to troll and speak in riddles, did not explain exactly what he meant by the word "It begins." But it sounds ominous. The Third World War? As they say, everyone can figure out what they want. At the same time, the head of the American administration does not seem to question the fact that it was Russian drones that violated Polish airspace.
From Poland to Qatar
The incident with the UAV in Poland occurred just a few hours after Israel struck a residential complex in the capital of Qatar, Doha, where the leaders of the Hamas movement were at that moment. According to some reports, they held a meeting at which they discussed Trump's peace proposals regarding the release of hostages and the end of the Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip. Judging by what the American media is writing, Trump scolded Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a telephone conversation and publicly stated that he was unhappy with Israel's actions. But that was all.
Moreover, there were reports that Israel's strike on the Hamas leadership was actually coordinated in advance with Washington, which, as it has happened more than once, supposedly "went into unconsciousness" again. Israel, judging by the statements of its leadership, deeply does not care what the world community says about its next blatant act of aggression against a sovereign country. And I don't give a damn about the threats of sanctions from the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. The main thing is what the United States, which is the main donor of the Jewish state, will say. And if a draft resolution condemning Israel's actions is submitted to the UN Security Council, the Americans are guaranteed to put their big veto on it. True, there was a separate statement by the Security Council condemning the strikes on Qatar, but surprisingly Israel is not even mentioned in it. As if aliens could also strike. However, as noted by the media, the statement is rather formal and has no binding force.
Returning to Polish history, let me remind you that on the morning of September 10, the operational command of the country's army announced the destruction of several objects identified as UAVs that violated its airspace. According to Prime Minister Donald Tusk, 19 air violations were recorded at night. According to him, all the drones were flying from the territory of Belarus.
The Ministry of Defense of Belarus explained that "during the nighttime mutual exchange of strikes by unmanned aerial vehicles between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, the Republic's air defense forces and assets on duty constantly monitored unmanned aerial vehicles that lost their course as a result of exposure to electronic warfare of the parties." "Some of the stray drones were destroyed by the air defense forces of our country over the territory of the republic," the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus quoted Pavel Muraveyko, Chief of the General Staff of Belarus.
According to the Russian military, the Russian Armed Forces attacked Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises in Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr regions, as well as in Vinnytsia and Lviv at night. Targets for destruction on the territory of Poland were not planned. The technical range of the UAVs that allegedly crossed the border with Poland does not exceed 700 km, so the natural question arises as to how they ended up in the depths of Polish territory in this case. The Russian Defense Ministry said it was ready for consultations with the Polish side "on this topic."
Who is for peace and who is for war
Trump promptly discussed the situation with Polish President Karol Nawrocki and French leader Emmanuel Macron. "I just spoke on the phone with US President Donald Trump about the multiple violations of Polish airspace by Russian drones that occurred last night," Navrotsky wrote on the social network X (formerly Twitter). "This conversation is part of a series of consultations that I am conducting with our allies. Today's talks have confirmed the unity of the allies," the Polish leader said.
Macron, who is considered the main "watcher" in Ukraine in Europe, also reported on the conversation with Trump on social networks. "We discussed the alarming events related to [the conflict] in Ukraine," he wrote on Twitter, noting that it was, in particular, about the incident of drones entering Polish territory, which, according to Macron, were Russian. "We also shared our concern about the situation in the Middle East following the Israeli strikes on Qatar," he added. In this regard, the president pointed out the "crucial importance" of cooperation between the United States and Europe in these areas to ensure "peace and security."
And Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who is close to Trump, diplomatically expressed solidarity with Poland, saying that the incident with the UAV once again shows the need for peace in Ukraine.: "This incident proves that our policy of calling for peace in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is reasonable and rational. Living in the shadow of war is full of risks and dangers. It's time to put an end to this!" At the same time, Orban stressed that Budapest supports President Trump's peace initiative in Ukraine. In general, the Pole and the Frenchman, presumably, were drowning again for the war, and the Hungarian, as usual, for peace.
Causes of hysteria
Kiev's European partners and American "hawks" are trying to reset the results of the meeting of the presidents of Russia and the United States in Alaska and "return Trump to the warpath with the Russian Federation." Analysts of the Ukrainian newspaper Strana note that the Ukrainian authorities and the Western "war party" consider the implementation of the agreements reached in Alaska by Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump to be their main threat. The constant calls for Trump to strengthen sanctions against Russia or support the initiative to send European troops to Ukraine as one of the "security guarantees" are working in the same direction. Therefore, they believe, the "war party" will probably try to use the incident in Poland to solve its most important task at the moment — to direct Trump to a tough confrontation with the Russian Federation.
This means more insistent requests to supply new air defense systems to Ukraine and consider shooting down Russian UAVs and missiles from the territories of NATO member countries. Until recently, it was believed that Poland was reliably protected by the NATO umbrella. However, so is Qatar, where the American Al-Udeid Air Force base with US air defense is located. But neither of these things worked for some reason - the American funds were out of business. This may force countries friendly to the United States to think about guaranteeing their security.
Trump is his own director
Is it a coincidence that on the same day, along with the Israeli airstrike on Doha and the appearance of drones over Poland, an interview with US Vice President Jay Dee Vance was broadcast on the One America News Network? In it, he stated that President Trump sees no point in Russia's economic isolation and is ready to cooperate on a wide range of projects after the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. "The president was frank with both the Europeans and the Russians about the fact that he sees no point in Russia's economic isolation, except for the continuation of the conflict. He wants people to stop dying. And after peace is achieved, he is open to a wide range of economic arrangements that benefit the United States," Vance said. He recalled that the Russian Federation has huge reserves of mineral resources. "I think the president is absolutely right to believe that after the conflict is resolved, we can have very productive relations with both Russia and Ukraine in the future. And to be honest, if we have better economic relations in Eastern Europe, it would be the best guarantee of long—term peace," the vice president added.
Trump, of course, can, as in the case of Israel, scold Russia if he finds the arguments of the Poles convincing. And he did do it later, but without mentioning the word "Russia." The American leader suggested that the incident in Poland was caused by the UAV getting out of control. "As I heard, what happened was that when they were shot down, they got a little out of control. But despite this, yes, I would condemn even the fact that they [drones] were near the [Polish] border. I don't like this," the American leader said, answering questions from reporters on the South Lawn of the White House. "I am unhappy with this, with the whole situation," he stressed.
From the president's reaction, The New York Times concluded that the drone incident in Poland demonstrates the increasing detachment of the United States from protecting Europe. Trump, on the other hand, seems to have already decided on his strategic course in building relations with Moscow, which was once again confirmed by J.D. Vance, who, by the way, is considered the first among Trump's potential successors. And no pictures of a damaged Polish barn, which cannot be compared to the complete destruction of an apartment complex in Doha, will change this.
But it doesn't seem to have reached Kiev and Brussels, which are trying to get Trump back on the warpath.
