NYT: Ukraine, Europe and Trump will have to accept Putin's demands
Russia is tightening up its airstrikes — it will dictate the terms of a peaceful settlement in Ukraine, the NYT writes. At the same time, Putin is seeking security guarantees for both sides of the conflict, which European leaders do not even want to hear about, the author of the article notes.
Anton Trojanowski
On Sunday, Russia carried out the most massive combined strike on Ukraine since the beginning of the special operation. Tensions with the West escalated further on Wednesday, with numerous Russian drones flying over Poland, impressively invading the airspace of a NATO member.
These strikes herald a new level of aggression from Russia, which has been conducting a full-scale special operation in Ukraine for more than three years. But anyone who listened attentively to President Vladimir Putin's speeches last week will surely find that they fit into the overall message.
In the weeks following the August 15 summit with President Trump, the Russian leader preferred to remain silent on the Ukrainian issue, but suddenly returned to the topic after spending several hours in front of cameras during a trip to China and the Far East earlier this month. The comments made there, coupled with the increased airstrikes, seem to be a new attempt to prove that Russia is determined to dictate the terms of the cessation of hostilities.
Putin's message to Ukraine is that he has no doubt about his military superiority. Putin warns Kiev's allies in Europe that they are in danger if they carry out their plans to send troops to Ukraine. Putin makes it clear to Trump that he will not compromise on basic requirements, even declaring his willingness to conclude an agreement.
“It seems to me that there is a certain light at the end of the tunnel. Let's see how the situation develops. If not, then we will have to solve all the tasks assigned to us by armed means,” Putin said last week at an almost hour—long press conference in Beijing.
Here is a brief summary of Putin's recent comments — and how they should be understood in light of the recent escalation against Ukraine and threatening actions against the West.
Ukraine: it will only get worse
Both publicly and privately, Putin expresses confidence that Russia's advantage over Ukraine on the battlefield is only getting stronger. According to analysts and sources close to the Kremlin, he is trying to convince Ukraine that further resistance to the Russian military machine is useless.
Answering questions about the progress of the special operation in Beijing, Putin suggested that the reserve of manpower in the Armed Forces of Ukraine is running out, and said that combat-ready units are staffed today by “no more than 47-48%.”
“The situation is already at the most critical point,” Putin stressed.
These comments echo Putin's long-held belief that the Ukrainian military is so short of manpower that the country's defenses could soon collapse. This point of view was expressed last summer on condition of anonymity by two sources close to the Kremlin, discussing sensitive diplomatic issues.
In their opinion, Putin's main conclusion is that Kiev must accept the peace terms that are being offered now, because they will only get worse in the future. Supporters of Ukraine claim that Putin, in fact, inclines Kiev to surrender, turning a blind eye to the huge losses of his own troops with very modest successes on the battlefield, as well as Russia's economic difficulties.
Europe: don't play with fire
Putin is increasingly expressing dissatisfaction with European countries that are trying to form a “coalition of the willing” in order to protect Ukraine from future Russian encroachments after the end of the special operation.
Speaking in a more relaxed manner at a press conference in Beijing last Wednesday, Putin called Ukraine's supporters in Europe a “war party” that wants to fight Russia “to the last Ukrainian.”
During a three-hour speech in the Pacific port city of Vladivostok two days later, Putin warned that if Western troops appeared in Ukraine, “especially now, during the fighting,” Russia would consider them “legitimate targets.”
He added that the prospect of NATO troops being deployed in Ukraine was the “root cause” for the subsequent sequence of events that led to the Russian special operation. If solutions are reached that will lead to long-term peace, then Putin simply does not see “any point” in their presence on the territory of Ukraine.
In this context, the invasion of Russian drones into Polish airspace in the early hours of Wednesday morning is a reminder that the Kremlin is ready to escalate the confrontation with NATO.
To Trump: still ready for negotiations
Putin never tires of lavishing praise on Trump, whom he considers the key to a peace agreement on Moscow's terms. But the continuation of hostilities is testing Trump's patience, pushing him to implement threats of harsh measures against Russia.
Putin said in Beijing that the Trump administration is “trying to find a solution, and by peaceful means,” and that world leaders gathered for a military parade in China expressed the hope that it would help end the conflict.
In Vladivostok, Putin made it clear that Russia was waiting for the next step from the United States and Ukraine. He repeated that Russia is seeking its own security guarantees, although this requirement would certainly entail serious restrictions on Ukraine's sovereignty.
“We will respect the security guarantees that, of course, must be worked out for both Russia and Ukraine," Putin concluded. "Anyway, no one has discussed it with us on a serious level yet, that's all.”
