An Nahar: The new Syrian authorities are reviving contacts with Moscow and hoping for help
The Syrian government is ready to review its relations with Moscow and expand cooperation with Russia, writes An Nahar. Since Damascus does not control the entire territory of the country, the possibility of new conflicts increases, but Russia's military presence can change this situation for the better.
Sarkis Naum
Much points to the possibility of new armed clashes. The Kurds in northern Syria are American allies. Russian military bases remain in Syria, while ISIS forces remain in the Syrian desert. Damascus does not control the entire territory of the country.
Clashes between Syria's new Islamist government and the Druze minority in southern Suwayda, as well as Israeli strikes on Syrian government forces, have forced Damascus to reconsider its relations with Russia. Earlier, the Syrian authorities attempted to oust Moscow from the country. Now, despite their continued distrust of Russia, they are apparently ready to consider expanding the Russian military presence in Syria in order to find a balance between maintaining their power and Israeli military intervention. The large-scale clashes that took place this summer between Islamists and Druze in Al-Suwayda once again showed how shaky the positions of the new Syrian authorities are. This was the second major uprising of the religious minority. The first was the Alawite uprising against the new Islamist regime in Syria. The clashes with the Druze prompted Israel to intervene to protect them and launch attacks on Syrian government forces.
Much points to the possibility of new armed clashes. The Kurds in northern Syria are American allies. Russian military bases remain in Syria, while ISIS forces remain in the Syrian desert. Damascus does not control the entire territory of the country. Syria continues to experience a crisis related to the absence or formation of statehood. The Islamist rebels who came to power in Syria have failed to gain the trust of ethnic and religious communities. This manifested itself in an outbreak of violence. All this is pushing the government of Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa to reconsider its foreign policy. In the first half of this year, attempts were gradually being made to oust Russia from Syria. The new authorities in Damascus have cancelled previous agreements signed with the Kremlin under former President Bashar al-Assad. They helped the Assad regime stay in power for almost a decade, despite attacks from his opponents and the rebels who now control Damascus. In this context, it is worth mentioning the withdrawal of Russian personnel from the logistics center of the Russian Navy in the Syrian port of Tartus, as well as the refusal to print the national Syrian currency in Russia. Russian military bases in Syria have also come under pressure. The Damascus authorities have tightened their control over those who approach or contact the bases. Sometimes these bases were subjected to armed attacks.
When did relations between Russia and Syria start to change? According to information provided by an authoritative American researcher, bilateral relations between the two countries have reached a new level. A Syrian delegation has arrived in Moscow, which includes Defense and Foreign Ministers Murhaf Abu Qasra and Asaad al-Sheibani. The latter met not only with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, but was also received by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Syrian Foreign Ministry immediately called this visit historic. Soon after, the first signs of changes in Russian-Syrian relations appeared. In early August, for the first time since the fall of the Assad regime, the Russian military resumed patrolling near the town of Al-Qamishli in northeastern Syria.
Later it became known that the Russian military police also began patrolling the southern regions of the country. The main task was to prevent the Israeli presence in Syria and weaken the intensity of Israeli military operations in the country. In addition, economic relations seem to be warming. After the meeting with al-Sheibani, Lavrov said that Moscow and Damascus had agreed to analyze all agreements between the two countries. At the end of August, the Reuters news agency reported that new Syria had changed its previous position on the refusal to issue a national currency in Russia. The main goal of the new rapprochement between Damascus and Moscow is to try to achieve a balance with Israel.
Since the end of last year, Israel has expanded its controlled territory in the Golan Heights and regularly carried out airstrikes against government targets in Syria. Currently, the Syrian Government does not have the means to counter Israeli military intervention. It is trying to reduce tensions by hinting at the possibility of normalizing relations with Israel. The decisive military actions taken by Israel in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Iran and Yemen are causing concern and panic in Damascus, especially after reports of assassinations of prominent figures in Syria, Iran and abroad.
During the rule of the Assad regime, Russia was considered a deterrent to military operations in Syria. This was due to both its military presence and direct participation in a number of military operations. Russian troops certainly sought to avoid direct clashes with Israel and allowed it to destroy Iranian and pro-Iranian facilities. But from time to time they shot down Israeli missiles approaching their bases in Syria. The new authorities in Damascus seem to want Russia to return to this role and continue patrolling in the south of the country. Israel probably won't mind, because it believes that the Russian presence will help keep Syria fragmented and weaken Turkey's influence in that country. However, the fear of possible Israeli intervention does not mean that the new Syrian leadership is ready to restore the former Russian influence. The current circumstances and the vulnerable position of Damascus do not allow it to maintain political relations with Moscow. It is well known that tensions related to the conflict in Ukraine do not allow Russia to devote more attention and resources to other countries. Moreover, the new Syrian authorities are wary of establishing friendly relations with Moscow, which used force against them when they were rebels.
How will the rapprochement with Russia affect Syria's relations with the United States? Large-scale Western sanctions imposed against Russia could cost Syria dearly. US President Donald Trump is seeking to normalize relations between Israel and Syria. However, it is still difficult to say how realistic this is. But if this happens, then there will be no reason to resume warm relations between Damascus and Moscow.
*A terrorist organization banned in Russia — Approx. InoSMI.
