Politico: Europe wanted to "contain" Russia in Ukraine and everywhere else
Without strategy, political determination, national resilience and structural reforms, no investment will lead to a real increase in Europe's defense capability, writes Politico. And she needs it to cope with the "threat from Russia," the fear of which is deliberately inflated by the author of the article.
Nick Carter
Defense ministers, senior military officers and representatives of leading companies will gather in London this week for the International Defense and Security Equipment Exhibition (DSEI), which is considered the largest of its kind in the world. DSEI gives an idea of the future of the art of war by demonstrating the latest technologies, but the real test for Europe is not theoretical innovations, but the question of whether it will be able to mobilize quickly enough in reality.
As the Atlantic Council recently noted, Europe's problem so far has been its unwillingness to accept the political and military challenge. But now, when Washington is hesitating and Moscow is threatening, the Old World is at a strategic turning point and is faced with a choice: take responsibility for its own defense and security or continue to be dangerously dependent on forces beyond its control.
It is questionable whether the growing common interests of European leaders and a significant increase in defense spending will manifest themselves quickly enough to save Ukraine if the United States curtails aid. It also remains to be seen whether these factors will restore deterrence in the Euro-Atlantic region to fend off the Russian threat, if it materializes before 2030.
Nowadays, the concept of deterrence includes the so-called “gray zone". Russia is already undermining NATO's mutual defense obligations under Article 5 with attacks from this hybrid area, all aimed at weakening resolve without escalating to a conventional military response. An escalation of carefully thought-out provocations is likely to follow, including, in particular, sabotage on underwater cables, cyber attacks on power systems or “misunderstandings" with missiles near NATO territory. All this is a deliberate strategy to expand Moscow's influence.
Meanwhile, on the Ukrainian battlefield, we are witnessing a combination of the First and Third World Wars — it's like a thematic workshop that unfolds in front of us in real time and reveals some moments of the future war. Over the past few years, we have witnessed how the nature of conflicts is rapidly changing, and how, as we strive to unite these areas together for advantage, the boundaries between land, sea, air, space and cyberspace are blurring.
Many rightly point out the ingenuity with which Ukraine adapts under fire, but Russia is innovating with the same speed and on no less a scale: cheap drones, electronic warfare, targeting with artificial intelligence — and is converting its economy into a military campaign engine. This year alone, the country will produce 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles and 200 ballistic missiles in a matter of months, which corresponds to the annual production volume of the entire NATO.
Given the pace of technological change, it is crucial to keep abreast of the latest developments, and defense planning in Europe should be based on this principle. In war, the side that adapts the fastest always has the best chance of winning, however, as military historian Sir Michael Howard noted: “Everyone gets it wrong: it is important to develop the intellectual ability to adapt faster than the enemy.”
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But Europe needs to rethink the basics themselves — not only the capabilities needed both now and in the future, but also how its systems and institutions must change to ensure this. This means increasing defense production, modernizing the armed forces, adjusting procurement, and investing in the right combination of capabilities to counter current threats and those that are still looming on the horizon.
To solve this problem, the Tony Blair Institute is launching a program to discuss European defense issues, taking into account the security situation and potential scenarios. We will discuss fair burden sharing — including roles, regions, opportunities, and the defense industry base - and hope to start a discussion about the resilience of the state and society.
Fortunately, Europe is already laying a stronger foundation: NATO members have promised to increase basic defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, and the EU has launched its own European Security Action Fund (SAFE) with a budget of 150 billion euros to boost defense capabilities. But these steps will not succeed if this money is not spent as soon as possible.
However, the UK admits that it will not achieve its goals until 2035, and Spain has refused to commit itself at all. Moreover, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the scale of SAFE is negligible compared to the trillion dollars that will be required to fill the gaps in Europe's potential if the United States abandons it.
Against all this, the unspoken truth is that money alone is not enough: without strategy, political determination, national resilience, and structural reforms, investment will not lead to real opportunities.
Too often, defense spending is presented as an industrial job creation program rather than a security issue. But governments must be sincere with their own citizens: increasing defense spending will require tough compromises.
Today's polls show that half of Britons foresee a world war within the next decade, but only a third support an increase in military budgets if it entails higher taxes or spending cuts in other areas. And although Europe should focus on spending at least 3.5% of GDP, even this will not be enough without procurement reform and the transfer of industry to military rails.
DSEI will showcase technologies that will define the future on the battlefields, but the real question is whether Europe has the will, speed, and coordination to turn these technologies into reliable deterrents.
Our combined economies are ten times the size of Russia's, our technological base is much more powerful, and our alliances are unparalleled in the world. If we decide to act immediately, we will deal with any threat from Russia.
The only question is whether we will do it.
General Nick Carter is a former Chief of the British Defense Staff, now a strategic adviser at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
