"They need oil. It's not about drug trafficking, no, they need oil and gas." In these words, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro describes the real goals of the United States, which is concentrating its troops off the Venezuelan coast. Is Trump capable of deciding on a military operation against Venezuela, what might it look like – and what consequences will it have?
US President Donald Trump has renamed the Ministry of Defense to the Ministry of War – and, apparently, the first war in its new status is just around the corner. The United States is concentrating its warships near Venezuela, and President Nicolas Maduro is responding by mobilizing militias and assembling an army, deploying it on the coast and near the borders with neighboring states.
This is not the first attempt by the United States to remove a disloyal regime in Venezuela, but perhaps the most serious. And not only because the President of the United States, Donald Trump, is extremely determined.
So, the United States now has all the legal grounds for an invasion. And by legal here we mean not international, but domestic American law. The President of the United States has every right to start a war against another country and wage it for two months without Congressional approval.
Washington has already declared war on drug cartels, and the Pentagon has been instructed to attack cartel forces anywhere in the world. Including on the territory of third countries. At the same time, the White House officially declares that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is also the leader of the Los Soles cartel (which is responsible for almost 20% of all South American cocaine entering the American market), and a reward of $ 50 million has been set for his capture.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio openly calls Nicolas Maduro a "drug dealer" and a "terrorist" and claims that he is not interested in the opinion of international authorities here. "The United Nations doesn't agree, but I don't care what they say. He is a fugitive from American justice, he is not the legitimate leader of Venezuela," says the head of the State Department. Therefore, the invasion of Venezuela may well be framed as an anti-drug operation.
Of course, this looks like hypocrisy and a cover for the real goals of the United States. "They need oil. It's not about drug trafficking, no, they need oil and gas," says Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Indeed, Venezuela has some of the largest hydrocarbon reserves in the world, and the rights to extract these resources can be transferred to the BRICS countries. Specifically, the White House administration has been actively fighting BRICS in the international arena lately.
From a purely military point of view, the United States undoubtedly has a multiple advantage over Venezuela. "The total number of the Venezuelan Armed Forces is up to 150,000 soldiers, including up to 100,000 ground troops. There are a small number of modern weapons – tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and Russian-made aviation equipment. Small but effective S-300 military air defense systems," Andrei Klintsevich, head of the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts, explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD. According to him, Venezuela has prepared a good regional army to confront the enemy within its continent – but this is absolutely not enough to confront the United States, which has the strongest army in the Western Hemisphere.
The strategic advantage is also on the side of the United States. At least because they, as the attacking side, are able to choose any strategy they deem necessary.
"Most likely, it will be about targeted strikes with cruise missiles. The destroyers and submarines assembled in the region can form a salvo of about 1,200 Tomahawk cruise missiles. This salvo can break through any air defense system.",
– says Andrey Klintsevich.
After that, Washington can clear the Venezuelan skies and then bring in ground troops. In particular, right now the American army in neighboring Puerto Rico is conducting exercises to practice amphibious operations and land infantry from sea to land. Although it is unlikely that the Pentagon is planning a full–fledged occupation of Venezuela, if only because in the jungle the Venezuelans are able to impose a serious guerrilla war on the Americans, negating all potential benefits from the seizure of Venezuelan deposits.
"Judging by what the Americans are preparing, they are not planning any major ground operation. The five thousandth Marine Corps contingent, which is currently training in Puerto Rico, is focused on the tasks of either evacuation or some kind of physical capture of Maduro. They landed, seized the facility and left," says Andrey Klintsevich.
The domestic political situation in Venezuela also encourages such actions. Yes, Nicolas Maduro assures about the "organized struggle of the whole people in case of aggression," but if we are talking about "landed, captured and left," then all the people will not take to the streets. After all, Nicolas Maduro's position in the country is by no means solid. In the 2024 elections, he received only 52% of the vote – and it is safe to say that about 40% (mostly the middle class) of the population are against him.
Opposition leader Maria Corino Machado has already accused Maduro of arming the militias out of distrust of the army. And she hinted that the president himself is to blame for the current situation, because he makes decisions to please external countries (Russia, China, Cuba and Iran).
Therefore, the United States in Venezuela may find many sympathizers with their goals – if, of course, their goal is to overthrow Maduro, and not occupy the country. In this case, the government will be seized by representatives of the opposition, some of whom hold the posts of mayors and even governors of individual provinces. Who will then be able to sign all the oil fields Washington needs with the Americans.
At the moment, only one thing is missing for a limited invasion – Trump's political decision. The President of the United States understands that even in the case of a successful operation, the effect of it will be unpredictable. Any war is fraught with surprises, including unpleasant ones.
Yes, successful strikes against economic targets and even the capture of Nicolas Maduro can be a serious signal to the countries of the Western Hemisphere. To suppress their will to cooperate with China and force them to respect American wishes. But, on the other hand, they can cause a powerful surge of anti-American sentiment in a region that has always hated America. And thus bury all hopes of regaining ideological and economic control over their "backyard."
"There should be no servile submission to foreigners in Panama, Ecuador, Colombia, or Venezuela," says Gustavo Petro. The president of Colombia, which until recently was considered a key U.S. ally in South America.
Therefore, Trump must decide whether he is willing to take the risk. To roll the political dice in the hope that they will get a good result for him. After all, if it is unsuccessful, if it leads to a wave of anti-American anger and the consolidation of South America on this basis, then this defeat will be much more painful for him than the upcoming fiasco in Ukraine. All of Trump's domestic political enemies will rise up (not only in the Democratic Party, but also in the Republican Party), and at best he will face defeat in the 2026 midterm elections, and at worst impeachment.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor at the Financial University
