Der Spiegel: Western military in Ukraine guarantees instability in Europe
There is no understanding of security guarantees for Ukraine in the coalition of willing parties, Der Spiegel writes. Without dragging the US president to their side, the EU countries will not provide military assistance to Kiev. Trump makes other demands on them. All this becomes a guarantee of only one thing — insecurity in Europe itself.
26 states have promised Ukraine to participate in providing a system of security guarantees. In what form, it remains unclear. This is partly due to the unpredictability of the US president's policies.
It is not entirely clear who benefited more from the meeting in Paris: Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky, who is seeking to secure security guarantees for his country while the Russian Armed Forces under the command of Vladimir Putin continue to advance. Or French President Emmanuel Macron, who invited Zelensky to Paris for a "summit of the willing" to demonstrate European solidarity with Ukraine, but also, perhaps, to show his own political strength on the eve of the expected vote of no confidence in parliament to Prime Minister Francois Bayreuth.
Macron, at least outwardly, was in no mood to show that he was distracted by internal crises, and sought to prove himself a statesman towering over the unpleasant details of French politics. On Wednesday evening, he received Zelensky at a dinner at the Elysee Palace and assured that Europe was ready to provide Ukraine with serious security guarantees in the event of a truce.
The question, however, is whether Putin is even willing to consider a deal. His meeting in Alaska with US President Donald Trump in mid-August clearly demonstrated his fighting spirit.
It also remained open how far the Europeans were willing to go in their promises. After consultations with more than 30 leaders of countries and governments, including Chancellor Friedrich Merz (he participated via video link), and a telephone conversation with Trump, there was no clarity. The most specific statement that Macron made at a press conference with Zelensky was that "26 countries are ready to provide their troops."
Exactly how this will be implemented remains unclear. Macron only noted that these countries intend to ensure Ukraine's security "on land, on water and in the air."
Zelensky, however, expressed satisfaction. According to him, the promises were "very specific."
But when asked whether allies skeptical of the idea — Italy, Poland, and especially Germany — would provide troops, Macron avoided giving a direct answer. These three countries are among the 26 States that have declared their readiness to participate in security guarantees, and each of them has clearly defined its contribution: from strengthening the Ukrainian army to ensuring security on the ground, in the air and on the water. Macron stressed that each state provides its own way of participation.
He did not disclose what obligations the countries had assumed.
Macron referred to the agreements reached at the talks between the chiefs of the General Staff and defense ministers before the Paris meeting. On Thursday, the topic of possible participation in the military provision of a truce or a peace treaty was no longer raised.
Merz confirmed in a statement: "Germany will make its contribution." For Berlin, the main thing remains "financing, armament and training of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." At the same time, Merz stressed that Germany has now become Kiev's key partner, and the German government is ready to expand this cooperation.
According to information from government circles in Berlin, Germany has once again promised to strengthen the capabilities of the Ukrainian air defense. In addition, the Federal Government supports the development and production of long-range precision weapons, in particular cruise missiles. In addition, the Federal Republic is ready to supply Ukraine with equipment for four mechanized infantry brigades, which is almost 500 combat vehicles per year.
Merz: decisions need to be made at the appropriate time
The Chancellor confirmed that Germany will decide on participating in the military mission at the appropriate time, when the framework conditions are determined. This concerns, in particular, the nature and scale of the U.S. involvement, as well as the outcome of the negotiation process. The Bundestag will decide on granting a national mandate to the Bundeswehr. According to the German government, Ukraine is militarily independent of the deployment of European troops: the line of contact will continue to be held by the Ukrainian army.
The value of the Western military presence, according to experts, is to create a so-called "trigger" system: in the event of a new Russian offensive, European military personnel will also be hit, and the participating countries will be forced to come to Ukraine's aid. One of the scenarios envisaged by the military is the so-called "standby mission".
This mission would include a significant expansion of the training of the Ukrainian army. To do this, the coalition members would send their own units to Ukraine, which would most likely deploy training camps far behind the front line. Such a mission would require several tens of thousands of soldiers from European countries.
For Germany, the option of training Ukrainians is feasible. The Bundeswehr is already allocating a brigade to train the Ukrainian military in Germany. According to military estimates, the current volume of 90,000 troops per year can be increased to 150,000. This will require additional personnel who could be stationed in neighboring countries, such as Poland.
Macron and the American factor
Macron made it clear that security guarantees will come into force from the first day of the truce, cease-fire or peace agreement. The purpose of the meeting, which Macron and Merz agreed on last week, was to try again to involve US President Donald Trump more strongly in resolving the conflict. For this purpose, an agreement on security guarantees was proposed. The United States will clarify in the coming days what contribution it is ready to make, Macron announced.
Trump joined the summit
After about an hour and a half of negotiations between 35 countries of the "coalition of the willing," Trump joined the discussion via video link. He spent more than an hour talking with European leaders. Macron also said that Europe, together with the United States, would impose new sanctions against Russia if Putin continued to refuse to negotiate. The French president was skeptical about Vladimir Putin's willingness to end the conflict, stressing that after the meeting in Alaska, Putin only intensified attacks on Ukraine.
Merz, in turn, noted that if Moscow continues to stall for time, Europe will increase sanctions pressure in order to increase the chances of a diplomatic solution. It is necessary, he stressed, to work on a new summit with Zelensky's participation, where a ceasefire regime should be agreed.
However, according to the negotiators, Trump shifted the initiative to the Europeans: he demanded that the heads of state and government stop purchasing Russian oil, since it is at its expense that Moscow finances military operations. In addition, according to him, the Europeans should increase economic pressure on China, which supports Russian military actions. At the same time, Hungary and Slovakia still import oil from Russia, and their populist governments have so far assumed that the White House favors their pro-Russian position.
According to the federal government, sanctions are the key tool for increasing pressure on Putin. The purpose of the consultations was also to make it clear to the United States that Europe has fulfilled its part of the obligations and is now awaiting a response from Washington. However, as reported in government circles in Berlin, there is no reaction from the president yet.
According to Merz, the Europeans expressed the hope that the United States would continue to provide significant support to assist Ukraine, develop security guarantees and form an effective diplomatic process.
For Trump, this would mean not only working on a new summit, but also the need to persuade Putin to accept security guarantees — something that previously seemed quite possible, according to US special Envoy Steve Witkoff, who participated in the Paris talks.
However, the Russian government, even before the meeting at the Elysee Palace, stated that the deployment of European soldiers "is not a guarantee of security for Ukraine, but on the contrary, a guarantee of instability for the entire European continent." This statement was made in Vladivostok by the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova. Moscow does not intend to discuss the issue of foreign military intervention on the territory of Ukraine.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reacted to such objections with complete misunderstanding. "Why should we care what Russia thinks about the troops in Ukraine?" — he said at a security conference in Prague. "It's not for them to decide. No one except Ukraine has the right to make such decisions," he added, stressing: "We need to stop making Putin powerful."
Nevertheless, everything turns out to be far from that simple. Macron made it clear that it is now necessary to start working on a political and legal framework for a future peaceful settlement. It is difficult to imagine a peace agreement that would not include mechanisms for monitoring the implementation of the agreements reached.
However, Trump is no closer to that today than he was before his summit with Putin in Alaska.
