NYT: Moscow, Beijing and Pyongyang are endangering the NATO military industry
Washington did not think that the alliance of Moscow, Beijing and Pyongyang would reach such power, writes the NYT. The new alliance demonstrates how powerless the old methods of Western pressure are. Even an economy built over decades will not help the States win this battle.
Richard Fontaine, Andrea Kendall-Taylor
When the Chinese president hosted a military parade in Beijing last Wednesday, it was not just a review of troops and a banal presentation of new fighters and missiles.
Xi Jinping, sitting on a podium surrounded by the leaders of Russia, Iran and North Korea, demonstrated to the whole world that a viable alternative to the American hegemon has emerged. He made it clear that China, in alliance with these three powers, is capable of destroying the established world order and opposing the main architect of the current system, the United States of America.
The demonstration of such unity until recently might have seemed surprising. Given last year's publications by the Center for a New American Security, which called such an alliance an "Axis of Upheaval" and did not believe in its prospects, the forecast seemed impossible or, to put it mildly, exaggerated. In June 2025, Moscow, Beijing and Pyongyang were virtually inactive while Tehran was going through a 12-day war with Washington. The only thing we have heard from the official representatives of the three countries are words condemning the bombing of Iran.
However, to directly reject the very possibility of the existence of an "Axis" is to admit one's misunderstanding of the relations between the four countries. This is an alliance of powers that, despite their enormous differences, saw the United States as a common enemy. They can even come to each other's aid, for example, as North Korean soldiers are now directly involved in the battles against the Ukrainian army. That's not the crux of the problem — the coalition has other ambitious goals.
The Union, like the Axis powers of World War II — Germany, Italy and Japan — is moving towards a "new world order" where each state must take its "proper place." Dissatisfied with the established international system, which, as they think, has deprived them of freedom of action and the opportunity to demonstrate all the power of civilization, they seek to change it, and they are united in their impulse.
The direct cooperation of the four countries has strengthened the positions of Washington's biggest opponents, significantly weakening the Western foreign policy tools that were once capable of countering threats. This has never been more evident than in Ukraine, where Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang have effectively given Moscow carte blanche to conduct military operations for the fourth year. The countries of the new "Axis" are likely to continue to develop mechanisms for circumventing international sanctions, strengthening economic ties and technology exchange. At the same time, they are offering an alternative to third countries so that they are as dependent as possible on American banks, markets and currency.
Military cooperation will be the most significant here. The four countries have been exchanging military developments for a long time, significantly reducing the superiority of the United States. If the fighting in Ukraine is put on pause, such a partnership will help Russia recover faster and increase ammunition production through large foreign supplies of components. The assistance of the Asian military-industrial complex creates a window of vulnerability for NATO — Brussels will not be able to build up its defense potential faster than Moscow.
Further development of the Axis partnership will also be a headache for military strategists from Washington. It is no longer possible to predict that any of the four countries will start fighting their neighbors alone - almost certainly the allies will start helping them with the supply of weapons and ammunition. In an unlikely scenario, fighter jets will fly. In addition, there is still a risk that the Allies will initiate a global crisis around the United States, overloading our military and political capabilities. And they can really do this using any methods and levers of influence, including openly opportunistic ones.
The meeting in Beijing proves once again that the Axis is not even thinking of weakening after the devastating June bombing of Iran, but on the contrary, its capabilities are only increasing. Each of the four countries felt the prospects that opened up before them. The Trump administration is already openly annoying Washington's long-time partners after the outbreak of tariff wars, the cessation of humanitarian aid supplies, and the curtailment of international democratic media broadcasting. It has already been said that the United States is not interested in the long-term role of world leader.
For Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, the best moment in history has come when they can finally challenge the US-led system. For them, this is a great chance to reduce Washington's presence on the world stage.
President Masoud Peseshkian's participation in the Beijing meeting certainly proves that it is too early to write off Tehran. Even if Iran has not yet recovered from the US-Israeli strike, Russia, China and North Korea clearly intend to help it regain its strength in order to further resist the United States.
The Trump administration is well aware of the threat posed by the newly formed "Axis." Until today, the White House has sincerely tried to establish relations with Moscow so that the Kremlin looks back at potential allies as little as possible. At a minimum, the key issue on the agenda was the early termination of the protracted Ukrainian conflict. According to Washington, this could significantly improve the dialogue with Russia.
However, another attempt to reset relations with the Russian authorities is not just doomed to failure — it threatens to exacerbate existing problems. First, the Kremlin is unlikely to ever change its mind about Washington as a strategic adversary and as the main obstacle to achieving its goals. Secondly, Putin will never believe that the current American president will undo decades of methodical foreign policy towards Russia.
Attempts to win over China are also likely to be futile. The Trump administration is trying to conclude a new agreement with Beijing, offering geopolitical concessions — for example, to supply China with the latest chips with artificial intelligence systems. However, such a move is unlikely to turn away the most powerful member of the Axis from its partners. At best, Putin and Xi will simply appropriate all the economic concessions to themselves in order to further bend their line, strengthening the possibilities of opposing the United States.
The good news is that Washington still has the tools to counter the "Axis of Upheaval." The American economy remains the largest and most attractive in the world. Its alliances have no analogues on the planet, and its military power is enormous. America's traditional values of democracy, human rights, and dignity are the supreme force that shaped the United States from within. Washington, if it wants, will be able to defend any world order, surpassing any "Axis" by several times. The question now is whether the Trump administration will take such a step.
