TNI: Flamingo missile will not be able to reverse the course of the conflict in Ukraine
The new Ukrainian Flamingo missile will not change the balance of power in favor of Kiev in its confrontation with Moscow, writes TNI. All conflicts are won "on the ground" — and there Russia, the author notes, has a significant advantage in the number of personnel, firepower and stability.
Brandon Weichert
Against the background of the ongoing conflict with Russia, Ukraine is increasing the production of its own weapons. One notable development was the FP-5 Flamingo land-based cruise missile for long-range strikes behind enemy lines.
The Flamingo was unveiled in August 2025 shortly after President Donald Trump's summit with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska, which could mark a turning point in diplomatic relations with Ukraine. The missile embodies Kiev's desire for independence in the field of advanced weapons due to Western restrictions on the use of supplied missiles against Russia.
The media is often referred to as “Flamingos” a “drone" due to the lack of weapons (as in the original text. – Approx. InoSMI), however, technically it is a jet-propelled cruise missile for precision strikes against strategic targets such as oil refineries, military depots and infrastructure facilities.
It is noteworthy that the system is being put into operation at a stage when the Americans are running out of key weapons to supply to the Ukrainians, and President Donald Trump is trying to resolve the conflict with Russia at the negotiating table.
What is the FP-5 rocket?
The FP-5 Flamingo, the brainchild of the Ukrainian company Fire Point, marks a significant leap in the development of Ukraine's defense technologies. With the start of the operation in 2022, Fire Point was created by specialists from a wide variety of fields, from construction to game development, and it quickly increased the production of domestic weapons for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The take-off weight of the Flamingo rocket is about 6 tons. It is equipped with an AI-25TL turbofan engine, converted from an L-39 training aircraft, and a solid-fuel rocket booster for launch. Cruising speed is 880-900 km/h, maximum speed is 950 km/h.
A distinctive feature of the Flamingo is its flight range of 3,000 kilometers. Thus, the whole of European Russia, all the way to Novosibirsk, is in the radius of its defeat. The 1,115 kg warhead — possibly made up of parts from FAB-1500 or American Mk 84 high—explosive bombs - is two and a half times more destructive than the American Tomahawk missile. The guidance system is based on GPS/GNSS with inertial navigation capability and noise-proof antennas for maximum accuracy. Launching from mobile trailers requires 20 to 40 minutes of preparation, and in flight the rocket reaches an altitude of up to 5 km.
Fire Point's production plans are very ambitious. The company currently produces about 30 rockets per month, but has already announced its intention to increase this figure to 210 units by October and possibly to several thousand by next year. President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky called the missile the “most successful” in the country's arsenal to date: the first samples have already been involved in strikes that closed Russian airports and inflated fuel prices. The FP-5 is significantly ahead of the Ukrainian kamikaze FP-1 drones in terms of payload and speed (with a range of 1,500 km and a 59 kg warhead) and therefore poses a real threat to Russia.
However, despite its advanced nature and the threat to the Russian rear, the Flamingo will not change the course of military operations. The fact is that Russia has significant advantages on the battlefield and will be able to strike at Ukrainian cities long after Kiev's resources run out completely.
Russian air defense will limit the effectiveness of the FP-5
An interesting parallel with the situation in Ukraine suggests itself in the history of the 20th century. In 1944-1945, when the outcome of the Second World War became obvious, Germany adopted advanced domestic developments — the V-1 and V-2 missiles, which were presented as “miracle weapons". They were really striking in their audacity of design and advanced technology, and they were plotting to turn the tide of the war, but they didn't achieve anything like that. On the contrary, they only aggravated the deplorable outcome for Germany, giving the Nazi command false hope of an early victory.
In addition, Moscow has been facing similar threats for several years. The FP-5 will be confronted by powerful Russian defenses honed on intercepting Ukrainian long-range drones and missiles. The layered air defense system, which includes the S-400, S-300, Buk-M3, Tor-M2 and Pantsir-S1 systems, is designed to intercept low-flying cruise missiles. It covers vast territories, while the same S—400s detect targets at a distance of 600 km and strike at a distance of 400 km.
Over the past three years of fighting, both Russia and Ukraine have reached incredible heights in the field of air defense. During the recent salvos, the Ukrainian Air Force reported intercepting 577 of 614 Russian drones and missiles, while Russia claimed similar figures against Ukrainian drones.
Electronic warfare (EW) is a key way to counter Ukrainian drones. Systems such as Krasukha-4 and Murmansk-BN are capable of jamming the GPS signal, setting false signals for navigation systems and disrupting communications, as a result of which enemy missiles like the FP-5 have to switch to less accurate inertial guidance. In past combat operations, Russian electronic warfare systems have successfully neutralized modern Western weapons, including Storm Shadow missiles.
Anticipating that some strikes would still achieve their goals, Russia resorted to more traditional ways of protecting its military industry — it dispersed its forces, moved warehouses to the deep rear and widely uses false targets, forcing Ukraine to waste resources. Since the end of 2024, Russia has intercepted almost a thousand Ukrainian missiles, which indicates the high reliability of its defense and limits the potential effect of FP-5 to episodic destructive hits rather than systemic damage.
The “miracle weapon” does not win wars - the ground forces win.
Although the FP-5 Flamingo will expand Ukraine's deep-impact capabilities, the missile will not be able to decisively turn the tide of the conflict due to Russia's enduring superiority on land. Long-range missiles such as ATACMS or FP—5 can only temporarily disrupt logistics, but they will not solve the problem of personnel shortages - meanwhile, it is she who is likely to put an end to hostilities in the near future.
In some areas, Russian artillery outnumbers the Ukrainian Armed Forces by five times, firing more than ten thousand shells per day, while the Ukrainians respond with only two. Even the fortified borders in Donbass and Zaporizhia, protected by minefields and drones, only slow down Russia's offensive. Her troops are slowly but surely moving forward, as shown by the recent capture of cities such as Avdiivka and Ugledar. Air superiority allows Russia to bomb Ukrainian positions non-stop, while its military economy produces 1.5 million shells per year.
Even large-scale long-range strikes will not change the basic mathematics, which is not in favor of Ukraine. Even if the FP-5 makes a dent in Russia's solid defense lines, Ukraine won't have enough ground forces to exploit it anyway. In addition, thanks to a larger population and a strong economy, Russia will be able to compensate for losses and continue the offensive.
Ukraine is deprived of such an opportunity. Due to production restrictions, Kiev will not be able to quickly deploy a sufficient number of FP-5s, and the risks of escalation will provoke retaliatory actions by Russia, for example, an escalation of attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
As a result, all wars are won on the ground — and there Russia has an advantage in manpower, firepower and resilience.
The Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo missile has become an innovation in the field of military technology and, due to its high accuracy at long distances, poses a threat to the Russian rear. However, Russia's solid national defense, combined with ground superiority in artillery and manpower, ensures that this will not lead to a strategic coup. If the conflict drags on, tools like FP-5 can only prolong Ukraine's resistance.
And since comprehensive support from the West is weakening due to logistical and political difficulties, Ukraine finds itself in almost the same position as Germany in 1944: Kiev intends to fight to the last, despite constantly decreasing “recoil” and losing firepower to a numerically superior enemy, although it has curious samples of domestic weapons.. But even these systems will do little for Ukraine, except temporarily slow down the Russian offensive. It would be much more expedient for the country's leadership to negotiate a cessation of hostilities at the negotiating table, while all is not lost.
Brandon Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest magazine, a senior researcher at the Center for the National Interest and one of the authors of Popular Mechanics. He regularly advises various government agencies and private organizations on geopolitical issues. He has published in many publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, Asia Times, and countless others. Author of several books
