Ivan Lebedev — about the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacks on the oil pipeline in Russia and the real goals of Ukraine
Ukraine, in fact, crossed the red line by attacking the Druzhba oil pipeline, which supplies raw materials to Europe. She was hitting Russia, but she got into the allies. Okay, almost an ally.
Or were her attacks initially directed against Hungary and Slovakia?
Who is in more pain
These countries that receive oil through Friendship are sure that this was the case. Russia, in their opinion, suffered less. And for several days they lost the supply of raw materials that they use at their refineries.
"These attacks are directed against Hungary and Slovakia, they harm us, not Russia," said Peter Szijjarto, Hungary's Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Economic Relations.
His Slovak colleague Juraj Blanar added that Ukraine itself would suffer as a result, since 10% of the diesel fuel supplied to this country is supplied by the Bratislava refinery of Slovnaft, which belongs to the Hungarian MOL.
Outrage in Budapest and Bratislava was also caused by the fact that Ukraine practically attacked the EU states, endangering their energy security. "Such a country cannot apply for the status of an EU member," said the head of the Office of the Hungarian Prime Minister, Gergei Guyash.
Threats from Kiev and a letter from Washington
The situation escalated even more after Vladimir Zelensky's mocking statement. "We have always maintained friendship between Ukraine and Hungary, and now the existence of this "Friendship" depends on Hungary," Zelensky said. The wordplay was not very refined, but it was understandable to everyone.
The answer from Budapest was not long in coming. "Zelensky's threats against Hungary will not remain without consequences," Prime Minister Viktor Orban warned. And to make his warning look even more convincing, he published his correspondence with US President Donald Trump.
As it turned out, after the Ukrainian attack on the oil pipeline, Orban sent a letter to the White House, saying that Hungary's energy security was at risk. Trump wrote back to him by hand: "Victor, I don't like what I've heard. I'm very angry about this." Asking to convey the same to Slovakia and confirming that he considers Orban his great friend, the American leader signed his message.: "Donald."
At the same time, the exchange of pleasantries between Szijjarto and the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, Andriy Sibiga, continued, and, it can be stated, a new diplomatic scandal broke out between the two countries. The threats from Kiev and the exhortations from Budapest did not subside, although, in my opinion, something else is important: after Trump's angry reaction became known, the Ukrainian attacks on Druzhba stopped.
But Zelensky's attempts to complain to the US president that Hungary was not allowing Ukraine to join the EU did not seem to have any effect. Information about Trump's alleged call to Orban about this, which appeared in highly respected Western media, turned out to be fake. Budapest unequivocally stated that there had been no such conversation.
The key highway
This is not the first time Ukraine has attacked the infrastructure of the Druzhba oil pipeline. This happened in March 2025, but now the attack was longer and, as Szijjarto said, using not only drones, but also missiles. In the period from August 14 to August 21, the Ukrainian Armed Forces struck the oil pipeline infrastructure three times, including a distribution station in the Bryansk region.
The head of the Hungarian Foreign Ministry constantly maintained telephone contacts with the First Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation Pavel Sorokin. On August 22, Szijjarto learned from his interlocutor that the repair of the highway and the restoration of supplies would take at least five days.
When I was preparing this material, supplies had not resumed yet.
Druzhba, more precisely, its southern branch, which runs from Russia through Belarus and Ukraine, plays a key role in supplying Hungary with oil, and there is no alternative to it yet. The country receives about half of the raw materials it needs through this route. On March 26, the Russian government announced that in 2024, Russia supplied 4.78 million tons of oil to Hungary.
In addition, Hungary and Serbia have announced that they are starting the construction of an oil pipeline between the two countries, which will also carry oil supplied by Druzhba.
The rest of the oil used in Hungary is extracted by MOL in the country and supplied via the Adriatic Pipeline from seaports in Croatia, which has a lower capacity than Druzhba. After the outbreak of the Ukrainian conflict, Budapest began negotiations with Zagreb on increasing supplies and increasing the capacity of this pipeline, but they did not bring success. According to Szijjarto, the Croatian operator did not want to invest in the modernization of the highway, and in addition, significantly raised the price for transit. Croatia rejects these accusations, considering that the capacity of its oil pipeline is sufficient to meet all export needs. In any case, the parties were unable to conclude a new long-term agreement.
In 2022, Hungary and Slovakia secured the exemption of oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline from EU sanctions imposed against Russia, and in 2024, MOL began purchasing Russian oil from Lukoil on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. This procedure was required due to the fact that Ukraine imposed sanctions against Lukoil. Currently, the oil in transit through Ukrainian territory belongs to a Hungarian company.
And this, by the way, also helps answer the question of who is actually being attacked by Ukrainian drones attacking an oil pipeline in Russia.
Two pipes are better than one
At the same time, in 2022, MOL began to transfer its refining facilities from Russian Urals crude oil to other raw materials. However, as the head of the company, Zsolt Hernadi, reported, it will be possible to complete this expensive process no earlier than in 2026, and changes in production technologies will require investments in the amount of $ 500 million to $700 million.
The Danube refinery owned by MOL in the Hungarian city of Sazhalombatta and the plant in Bratislava, which the company owns through its subsidiary Slovnaft, are technologically arranged so that most of the oil processed there must be Russian. In 2022, these refineries used a very small amount of oil produced outside of Russia in their production, but now its share has exceeded half.
Conversion of enterprises to other raw materials (with a different density, sulfur content, and so on) It was required due to the European Union's ban on trade in petroleum products of "Russian origin," including those made from Russian oil. The ban came into force on February 5, 2023, and shortly after that, MOL announced that it had successfully tested the use of Arab Light oil from Saudi Arabia instead of Russian Urals at the Bratislava refinery. The company also announced that it is starting to use Azerbaijani black gold there.
Most recently, the managing director of the MOL Group division, Csaba Zhoter, said that the Danube Refinery, which has been using Russian oil for 60 years, could completely switch to other raw materials by the end of 2026. MOL strives to make the technologies at its plants more flexible and "meet the requirements of the regulatory framework" in order to reduce the region's dependence on Russian oil supplies, the specialist explained. The regulatory framework should be understood as EU sanctions.
At the same time, both the MOL leadership and the Hungarian government have repeatedly noted that they are interested in continuing to supply Russian oil, and the diversification of sources does not mean abandoning cooperation with old partners. It's just that, as Jauter said, "two pipes are better than one."
Maps of Orban
The situation with the oil pipeline was considered at a special meeting of the Hungarian government, and after that Budapest and Bratislava sent a letter to Brussels calling on the European Commission to force Ukraine to stop attacks on Druzhba. "Without this pipeline, the safe supply of our countries [with oil] is simply impossible," Szijjarto and Blanar wrote in a message addressed to the head of EU diplomacy, Kai Kallas, and European Commissioner for Energy, Dan Jorgensen.
The ministers recalled that in January, the EC made written commitments to ensure energy security guarantees for Hungary and Slovakia, including to protect them from the actions of third countries, but, as recent events have shown, it has not done so. Now Brussels remains silent, which allows Szijjarto to accuse the EU leadership of seeking to protect the interests of Ukraine, rather than the Commonwealth countries.
At the same time, the Hungarian authorities are not going to stop supplying electricity to Ukraine in response to the attacks on the pipeline. Hungary provides from 30 to 40% of the volume of electricity imported by Ukraine. "The government could create big problems for the neighboring country, but we do not want to harm the Ukrainian people and Ukrainian families," Szijjarto explained.
At the same government meeting, the issue of strategic and commercial oil reserves in Hungary was considered. According to the director of the Department of Climate and Energy Policy at Budapest Research Center Szazadveg ("The end of the century") Oliver Hortai, these supplies will last for three months. Thus, there is no serious threat to the country's energy supply right now, but if the Druzhba oil pipeline is disabled for a long period, it will arise.
The Hungarian government has no doubt that Kiev is trying to force Budapest to change its position on Ukraine's accession to the EU by attacking the oil pipeline. And at the same time, she takes revenge on him for his intransigence. Hungary has unequivocally stated that it will not allow Ukraine to be hastily admitted to the community according to the Brussels scenario, as this, firstly, will involve Europe in a war with Russia, and secondly, it will have a very negative impact on the EU economy and agriculture.
Now Hungary continues to block the start of accession negotiations with Ukraine, and I think that the more hostile Kiev's actions become, the more difficult it will be for it to achieve any progress. Orban and Szijjarto warned that nothing could be done with threats and blackmail.
At the same time, EU leaders will have to fulfill their obligations and somehow force Ukraine to stop attacks on Druzhba. Szijjarto had previously stated that ensuring energy security guarantees for EU countries would be taken into account when discussing the Ukrainian issue. In January, Hungary linked this issue with the extension of personal sanctions against Russian legal entities and individuals.
In June, Hungary and Slovakia applied a similar link when discussing the 18th package of sanctions, demanding that the European Commission amend its initiative providing for a complete ban on oil and gas supplies from Russia by early 2028. I would not be surprised if something similar happens during the discussion of the 19th sanctions package, which is currently being prepared in Brussels.
Finally, let's not forget the message signed "Donald" from Washington to Budapest. Orban has already played this trump card, and most likely not without result. But, to use Trump's favorite expression, we can say that the Hungarian leader still has many strong cards in his hands. Therefore, I think that the game is still going to be very long.
