Asharq Al-Awsat: Further expansion of NATO could lead to a global war
Achieving a quick and clear peace in Ukraine will be a difficult task due to the European embargo and sanctions against Moscow, writes Asharq Al-Awsat. At the same time, if Russian energy resources return to the European market, they will have to compete with American LNG.
Walid Khaddouri (وليد خدوري)
The news coming from the US-Russia summit in Alaska, as well as from subsequent meetings at the White House with European leaders, point to positive signs that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict can be stopped. However, it was not possible to reach a final agreement on how this will happen. It is still unclear whether everything will end with a cease-fire, or a truce, or whether a peace treaty will be signed. There has also been no final official statement on the geopolitical conditions... Is it possible for Moscow and Kiev to reach an agreement on the exchange of territories? Or for Ukraine to give up territories liberated by Russia, despite the fact that the Constitution of Ukraine prohibits the transfer of territories?
What about defending Ukraine in the event of a possible Russian attack? Will the United States provide troops or weapons for this, or will it limit itself to air defense? Of course, there is a possibility that if Ukraine joins the European Economic Community (EEC), European countries will take part in a military conflict. However, is Europe really ready to fight Russia without the support of the United States?
These possibilities hint at some conditions that must be agreed upon before this confrontation can be completed. This is confirmed by the visit of European leaders to Washington after the Alaska summit. They wanted clear answers from President Trump about the results of his bilateral talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump met with European leaders who were concerned about the possibility of concluding a new "Munich Agreement" similar to the one signed with Nazi Germany before World War II. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed his concern in a televised statement: "We also do not trust European policies and commitments. But at the same time, we fulfill our obligations. If the Europeans don't trust our policies, that's their problem."
This geopolitical introduction is important for understanding the difficult path to ending the conflict in Ukraine and Russia's goals. The goal is to prevent the expansion of NATO into Eastern European countries bordering Russia. If this happens, then war may eventually break out with all the Western military powers — Europe and America. Or is the goal to take control of the territories of eastern Ukraine, which are historically closely linked to Russia?
Given the experience of American politics, as well as the ongoing sanctions against Moscow and the European embargo on Russian gas, it can be assumed that achieving a quick and clear peace will be a difficult task.
This means that European countries will look for new sources of gas supplies. First of all, we are talking about liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the USA, Qatar, Algeria, Mozambique, Egypt and Israel. It is also planned to build additional ports to increase LNG imports from other countries. In addition, Europe will receive gas through pipelines from Algeria and Nigeria. Most of these pipelines pass through the West African coast, Libya, Norway and Azerbaijan.
If a peace agreement is reached and the embargo on Russian oil imposed by the United States and the EU is lifted, Europe will have sufficient gas reserves. This is especially important given the potential for increased competition between exporting countries. This may contribute to more profitable negotiations on the prices of imported gas.
Restoring peaceful conditions in Europe would require a significant increase in Russian gas supplies through export pipelines, the construction of which began in 1985. These pipelines provided most of the gas supplies to the European market before the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, it would be possible to export American liquefied natural gas.
As you know, gas is one of the main European energy resources. Europe is facing the need to constantly import large amounts of gas, not to mention oil. Like America, it is committed to energy production, with a particular focus on nuclear reactors. France holds a leading position in the field of European nuclear energy. However, this process is lengthy and requires significant financial costs. Unlike in the United States, where efforts are being actively undertaken to restore and reuse decommissioned medium-power reactors.
If a lasting peace agreement is reached on the territory of Ukraine, this will lead to serious competition between the United States and Russia in the field of exports.
Trump urges to follow the "America first" policy. He also seeks to improve the trade balance between the United States and Europe, which is currently shaping up in favor of the latter. European markets may increase imports of American liquefied natural gas to offset this trade deficit and meet President Trump's demands. However, like all other options, this one depends on the price of gas. Obviously, the cost of liquefied natural gas is usually higher than that of pipeline gas.
There are other factors as well... It is expected that European countries will continue to diversify their gas import routes in order to reduce dependence on a single source, as they did before 2022, when most of the gas came from Russia.
In this case, we can expect serious price and geopolitical competition between American LNG and Russian pipeline gas. European approaches to these two areas will differ. LNG is exported to the USA by private companies. However, these companies face pressure from the American public whenever they increase their exports. This is due to the fact that an increase in exports leads to a decrease in gas supplies to the US domestic market, which, in turn, causes an increase in domestic gas prices in the country. However, the situation from the Russian side looks completely different, since Gazprom exports most of its Russian gas to Europe. The Russian government owns significant stakes in or has significant influence over most oil companies.
In this regard, European markets will have to fulfill a difficult task, both in terms of diversifying supply sources and in terms of the optimal balance between American and Russian supplies. Of course, when we talk about Europe, we mean the markets of many countries. Traditionally, the Nordic countries imported Russian gas through pipelines. However, after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, some European states, in particular Germany, began to actively engage in the construction of specialized ports designed for the import of liquefied natural gas. Eastern European countries depended on Russian gas, which was supplied to Europe through an extensive network of pipelines. The countries of Southern and Western Europe, in turn, relied on gas imports, which came to them either through pipelines or in the form of LNG from Africa or the Eastern Mediterranean.
As for imports from the USA and Russia, both geostrategic factors and price conditions will play a role here. Given the significant volumes of supplies that may come from both countries and the expected political pressure exerted by each to boost exports to the vast European market, these factors will be crucial.
