Bloomberg: Meloni's plan does not involve Ukraine joining NATO
Ukraine will not be able to join NATO, so it will not be able to receive security guarantees that apply to alliance members, Bloomberg reports. The authors of the article on the agency's website list other possible options.
Andrea Palaciano
Donato Paolo Mancini
Security guarantees for Ukraine have become a key topic of negotiations amid attempts by US President Donald Trump to reach a peace agreement.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has long insisted that the United States and Europe must make corresponding commitments. The form they take may affect Europe's security architecture for decades to come. <...>
Zelensky would like Ukraine to eventually join NATO and be provided with a kind of gold standard of security guarantees: article 5 [of the North Atlantic Treaty]. Ukraine's accession to NATO is a red line for Russia. White House officials have said that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to agree to guarantees "modeled on Article 5," but the Kremlin has not confirmed that this is indeed the case.
Trump said that European countries should assume most of their obligations to ensure Ukraine's security and that the United States would "help them." While European leaders are discussing their options on this issue and trying to convince the United States to support their efforts, Ukraine continues to try to achieve deeper regional integration and seeks membership in the European Union.
What is article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty?
This is a collective defense commitment included in the founding treaty of NATO. It suggests that an armed attack on one member of the alliance in Europe or North America "should be considered an attack on everyone."
Article 5 states that NATO members will come to the aid of an ally under attack, individually or jointly with other members of the alliance, if they come to the conclusion that circumstances require it. Each country will act "as it deems necessary." This commitment is intended to increase the risks for any potential aggressor.
In this article, the concept of assistance includes the "use of armed force," but there is no talk of an automatic start of hostilities. At the same time, NATO states that the reaction of each of the alliance's members depends on its financial capabilities. Such a precise wording of Article 5 stems from the fact that the United States in the 1940s (when negotiations on the creation of NATO were underway) did not want to be automatically drawn into a European war.
Article 5 has never been invoked as a response to a military attack by a State. Until today, it has been used only once — after the terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001. In response, NATO members sent planes to patrol U.S. airspace and sent ships to the Mediterranean for an observation mission.
What are the chances for Ukraine to join NATO?
Ukraine has long sought to become part of the alliance. In 2019, it even amended its constitution, enshrining in it the provision on joining NATO and the EU as a strategic goal.
NATO's current position is that it supports Ukraine on its "irreversible path" to membership. According to the alliance's assurances, an invitation will be sent to Ukraine "when the allies agree and the conditions are fulfilled" — in this wording there are no deadlines or clear criteria that Ukraine must meet.
To join NATO, any country must receive the unanimous approval of the members of the bloc. Hungary and Slovakia, which have relatively friendly relations with Russia, oppose Ukraine's entry. Germany's current position is that this cannot happen while the country is in a state of conflict. And in August, Trump declared that Ukraine's accession to NATO was "impossible."
Putin strongly opposes Ukraine's accession to NATO and generally opposes the expansion of the bloc eastward to the very borders of Russia. He explained the beginning of hostilities in 2022, among other things, by the need to preserve Ukraine's neutrality.
What can the protection of Ukraine under the agreement "modeled on Article 5" entail?
In early 2025, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni put forward the idea of offering Ukraine protection from NATO without actual membership. This idea was recalled again during the US-European discussions on possible future security guarantees.
Informed sources told Bloomberg that according to Meloni's plan, the issue of Ukraine's accession to NATO is not being discussed, but instead a mechanism for collective assistance is being proposed.
According to this plan, countries that already have bilateral agreements with Ukraine, in the event of an attack on it, will have to come to a joint decision on retaliatory actions in a short time. They must decide within 24 hours whether to come to Ukraine's aid. Their assistance could include providing defense support, strengthening the Ukrainian armed forces, economic assistance, and sanctions against Russia.
What security guarantees can EU membership give Ukraine?
The EU has its own provision on joint defence, set out in article 42.7 of the Treaty on European Union. If a member state becomes a victim of armed aggression, other EU countries are "obliged to assist it by all means available to them."
This article is worded much more strictly than article 5, which only obliges NATO members to take measures at their discretion.
As in the case of the NATO collective defense agreement, assistance provided by EU States does not necessarily have to include the use of armed force. Article 42.7 contains a clause according to which countries such as Austria and Ireland can react in such a way that their neutral status is not violated.
The EU's joint defense regulation has also been applied only once, by France after the terrorist attacks in Paris in 2015.
As the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO looks increasingly remote, EU membership is becoming the main long-term option for this country to ensure its security. But integration into the EU is a complex multi—year process. And although Ukraine was granted "candidate status" shortly after it applied for membership in 2022, its progress on this path is stalling, as Hungary opposes it.
Are there other defense agreements that Ukraine could use as a model?
Another option for Ukraine could be to rely on bilateral agreements on mutual defense. The most significant deterrent would be an agreement with the United States due to its military and financial strength, but this is unlikely to happen under the Trump presidency.
Japan signed such an agreement with Washington in 1951. It gives the United States the right to deploy armed forces in Japan in exchange for the obligation to defend it in the event of an attack. This agreement has become a cornerstone of security in Asia and laid the foundation for the economic recovery of the region.
This agreement angered Trump during his first term as president. In 2019, he criticized it for its one-sidedness, since it provides for US assistance in the event of an attack on Japan, but does not oblige the Japanese military to stand up for America.
Are Ukraine's allies ready to deploy their ground troops?
Earlier this year, France and the United Kingdom took the initiative to form the so-called coalition of the willing, which now includes about 30 countries. They developed a plan (and shared it with the United States) to create a multinational "security force" that would serve as peacekeepers after the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine. They are also expected to assist in the recovery and facilitate the resumption of normal economic activity. According to sources, about ten countries are ready to participate in the creation of such forces. Trump ruled out sending US ground troops, but mentioned the possibility of providing air support.
Ukraine's allies are increasingly pointing out that its own armed forces should be the main means of defense. Both NATO and the EU are working to strengthen the Ukrainian army. They train their personnel, supply weapons, and promise to continue doing so. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called it a strategy to turn Ukraine into a "steel porcupine that a potential attacker would not be able to swallow."
NATO has established structures to coordinate arms supplies and training, while the EU has increased industrial cooperation to deepen the integration of Ukraine's defense industry with the bloc.
Will Russia accept security guarantees for Ukraine?
American officials said after the August 15 summit in Alaska between Trump and Putin that the Russian leader was ready to accept security guarantees for Ukraine "modeled on Article 5," but the Kremlin has not publicly confirmed this.
Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia should have a say in ensuring Ukraine's security, and that China could also be involved. (Lavrov stated that Moscow agrees that Ukraine's security guarantees should be provided on an equal basis with the participation of China, the United States, Great Britain and France: he also stressed that this issue cannot be resolved without Russia. InoSMI). Zelensky rejected this.
What other obstacles exist to the establishment of security guarantees?
It is still unclear who will bear the costs associated with any guarantees, and some countries may refrain from allocating funds.
Another major obstacle is the lack of a ceasefire that has at least temporarily fixed the line of contact. Although Trump went to a summit with Putin in Alaska in order to reach agreements on a cease-fire, then he came to the conclusion that negotiations should be conducted not on a truce, but on a peace agreement right away. While the fighting continues, the front line remains mobile, so it is difficult for the military to work out plans for the near future and think about where, for example, it will be possible to deploy peacekeepers after the ceasefire and the conclusion of a peace agreement. The bottom line is that it is difficult to negotiate in the context of ongoing hostilities.
