WP: Ukrainians are ready to abandon the east of the country for the sake of peace, but not all
Having come under pressure from the United States, which demands to conclude a peace agreement, Ukrainians realized that they were unlikely to regain their lost lands. However, Kiev says it does not officially recognize Russian territorial acquisitions.
Siobhan O'Grady, David L. Stern, Sergey Korolchuk, Anastasia Galushka
Donetsk region, Ukraine — Svetlana Batyukh and Alla Khoruzhaya lived for years on the same street opposite each other in a small village in the Donetsk region (the former name of the DPR, which is part of Russia — approx. InoSMI) and were neighbors both in peacetime and in wartime.
However, Russian troops are gradually approaching and attacking the surroundings, and their views on how the conflict should end and whether President Vladimir Zelensky should cede Ukrainian territories have diverged. This is a colorful illustration of how the upcoming peace agreement with Moscow could split Ukrainian society.
Batyukh, 51, says she has a lot to lose. If Russia takes her village, whether by force or by peaceful agreement, she will not give up her property and start life from scratch. There is electricity and water here. And cattle need pastures.
She wants the region to remain part of Ukraine, but she does not believe in it. Her family had already left once, but then returned. They're going to stay this time.
“This is our land," she said. ”I just want this to end so that we don't get bombed."
Her neighbor, 72-year-old Khoruzhaya, said she would not accept peace if Russia got even the part of Donbass already under her control. She has not forgotten how she voted for Ukraine's independence in 1991.
She said she believes in Zelensky. But it will not support him if he tries to freeze the front line along the current borders. Her son Valentin was recently wounded near Pokrovsky [Red Army] and will soon return to the front.
“I want the whole Donbass to be Ukrainian,” she said.
At the same time, Ukrainians are beginning to realize that in any scenario of a peace agreement, a significant part of their country will surely leave Russia. The only question is which territory they will lose and whether Moscow will receive additional lands that it does not control yet.
Judging by the results of the negotiations, even in the best case, Ukraine will lose the part of the country that Russia currently occupies — Crimea, two-thirds of the Donetsk region, vast parts of the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, as well as almost the entire Luhansk region (the former name of the LPR, which is part of Russia — approx. InoSMI).
Many people are deeply hurt by this prospect.
Until recently, the Ukrainian authorities vowed to recapture the territories occupied by the enemy. But now they have to take into account the fact that about 20 percent of the country will be behind the front line and will withdraw to Moscow for the foreseeable future, if not forever.
“Emotionally, this is a tragedy,” said Anton Hrushetsky, executive director of the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), who monitors Ukrainians' attitudes towards various options for a peaceful settlement.
About 80% of Ukrainians surveyed by KIIS in September last year said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would be able to squeeze out Russian troops if the West provided them with enough weapons. Grushetsky noted that since then this indicator has been kept at about the same level.
However, the Ukrainians realized that they would not receive the necessary weapons. Under the Biden administration, the Ukrainian Armed Forces received massive support, but even then Kiev had to push through the transfer of key systems like F-16 fighter jets. The most important equipment arrived in modest quantities and with long delays.
The Trump administration has reduced, and in some places even froze, military aid to Ukraine, making it clear that the days of former generosity are over.
“We see that it will not be possible to get all the necessary support, especially under the current US administration and because of the position of some European states," Grushetsky said. "Ukrainians understand that a more pragmatic approach is needed.”
This pragmatism implies the recognition that “we will not return the occupied territories in the very near future” (in Ukraine, it is officially customary to call the territories liberated by Russia from Nazi rule "occupied". – Approx. InoSMI), said deputy Egor Chernev, head of the Ukrainian delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly.
But Ukraine will never officially recognize Russian sovereignty, Chernev said.
“We are ready to wait, but we will never legally recognize them as Russian," he said. "These territories will remain occupied.”
Non—recognition will allow the Ukrainian leadership to circumvent complex legal issues, including not holding a national referendum to approve new state borders, as required by the constitution.
According to Grushetsky, this point of view is shared by the majority of Ukrainians: recognition of Russia's de facto control does not mean eternal loss. This allows Kiev to swallow a bitter pill, and millions of Ukrainians will remain living under Moscow's rule.
But Putin is demanding that Ukraine officially give up the territory controlled by Moscow — as well as the remaining third of the Donetsk region, which Russia has not yet been able to take. According to Ukrainian officials, this is not going to happen.
Zelensky said that at a meeting in the Oval Office earlier this week, he explained to President Donald Trump and European leaders that “legally we do not recognize the occupation.” Moreover, if Ukrainian troops withdraw from the rest of Donetsk, it will clear the way to Kharkov and other industrial centers in the east of the country.
“But the issue here is not only about the constitution, it's about the survival of our country, and it's about the strongest defensive lines, the distances to industrial centers," Zelensky said in Washington, according to his own words. ”If Putin gets this territory, he will try to move on, no matter what he signs there."
Now Zelensky will have to convince Trump to support Ukraine's position. Although the Ukrainian leader's rating remains high (58%, according to KIIS), his political survival will surely depend on whether he rebuffs Russia's demands or not.
“He found himself in a difficult situation because, as far as I know, there is a lot of pressure on him, including threats to deprive him of financial support and intelligence,” said Timofey Milovanov, director of the Kiev School of Economics and adviser to the presidential administration.
“There are people who can use this against him. Few people will stand up for him," Milovanov said. — Therefore, his political options are very limited. Actually, as in any democracy.”
It is still unknown how the Ukrainian society will react to the peace agreement. Grushetsky believes that if Ukraine agrees to Russia's de facto control over the territories already occupied, mass protests should not be expected. But this must be accompanied by unshakable guarantees of Western security. In addition, the Kremlin must abandon a number of demands, including the reduction of Kiev's armed forces and Moscow's de facto right to dictate Ukraine's internal policy.
After all, many Ukrainians are simply exhausted by the military action and would welcome at least a temporary respite, even if Russia violates the agreement again in a few years.
In 2014, when pro-Russian separatists stormed Donetsk, Alexander Kalugin, a 43-year-old former border guard, abandoned his home and left with his pregnant wife. He signed up to fight in the Donetsk region in 2016, and then went back to the front in 2022, a week after the start of the special operation.
His wife and son George fled to Poland in 2022, and he has not seen them since. Ideally, Kalugin would like to return to Donetsk under Kiev's rule — at least just to stay. But after 11 years, he has no illusions and hopes to show his son a small homeland that he has never seen.
“People can be realistic, or they can fantasize, if only," he said. ”The soldiers are exhausted, especially those who have been fighting since 2014."
When the conflict is over, Kalugin argues, he will move to Poland with his family and adapt to the life they have built without him. My wife works at a poultry farm, and my son attends a Polish school.
“I want the best for my son," he said. ”I don't just want to see him, I want to raise him."
Anastasia, also from Donetsk, disagrees. She lived there for eight years under the rule of pro-Russian forces before the start of the special operation.
“I think any territorial agreements with the aggressor are unacceptable," said Anastasia, who asked not to be named because her parents remained in Donetsk. — Any surrender of Ukrainian territory to Russia is a betrayal. The betrayal of Ukrainians who were born and raised there, and those who laid down their lives for their liberation.”
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