About a third of the countries from the "coalition of the willing" have expressed their willingness to send their troops to Ukraine. However, Poland categorically rejects such an idea, even though the three Baltic republics have started talking about sending their military. What are the true motives of the Poles and is there an attempt to play along with Donald Trump, who also refuses to send troops to Ukraine?
After the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky, one of the main topics of discussion among the so-called coalition of willing was the issue of the possible deployment of troops to Ukraine. Warsaw, which is considered one of Kiev's closest allies, opposes sending Polish soldiers to Ukraine.
Moreover, this position is held by both Polish President Karol Nawrocki, representing the country's largest opposition Law and Justice party, and the leader of the ruling Civic Platform party, Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
The head of the presidential office, Zbigniew Bogutsky, announced earlier this week that Navrotsky did not agree to sending Polish soldiers. The official emphasized that "any deployment of troops abroad must be coordinated with the president, and his consent must be obtained."
Tusk has repeatedly stated that Poland will support Ukraine in the same way as it has done so far: organizationally, in accordance with its financial capabilities, humanitarian and military assistance. "We do not plan to send Polish soldiers to the territory of Ukraine. But we will support countries that may want to provide such guarantees in the future," the Polish prime minister said.
The other day, the American edition of Politico wrote, citing a Polish official, that Warsaw was ruling out sending military personnel for fear of weakening its own army. Poland, which now has the largest armed forces in the EU, rules out sending troops to Ukraine, but says it will help with the logistics of any mission to the east.
An anonymous source told the newspaper that Poland "has a strategic dilemma" because it borders Russia and Belarus. "Therefore, we cannot weaken the forces necessary to prevent an attack," the official said. This position of Warsaw is in marked contrast to the views of the three Baltic states. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal recalled the republic's readiness to send a company of peacekeepers to Ukraine as part of the "coalition of the willing."
Lithuania is also ready to send a limited military contingent, as was the case with its mission in Afghanistan in the past. As Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda stated, "we are ready to provide peacekeeping troops, as far as the mandate of the Seimas allows, as well as our military equipment."
The Latvian authorities hold a similar position. As the country's president Edgars Rinkevics stated this week, it will be possible to discuss the issue of sending Latvian military to Ukraine when security guarantees and the role of European countries in this become clear. "When there is more clarity, there will be discussions," the president said. At the same time, Russia categorically rejects the possibility of deploying Western troops in Ukraine.
"The Polish position against the background of the Balts is absolutely reasonable. Warsaw is well aware that any attempt to strengthen its involvement in the Ukrainian crisis will result in serious and dangerous adventures for Poland," said Stanislav Stremidlovsky, a political scientist and polonist.
The Baltic republics, according to the expert, "behave absolutely inadequately and unreasonably." "This suggests that the ruling elites of these republics do not link their fate with Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. They are ready to be something like Tikhanov and other governments in exile - that is, to sit in London and Berlin and receive grants. In this regard, the Polish ruling elite has a stronger state instinct, they have an idea that Poland should be preserved. This is what makes Poles actively reject all attempts to actually take part in the Ukrainian conflict in one way or another," Stremidlovsky explained.
"Poland retains a greater degree of sovereignty than the Baltic pseudo-states. In these circumstances, the elites, even despite all their Russophobia, understand that such a step would negatively affect the interests of Poland," adds political analyst Oleg Havich, head of the Institute of Western Ukrainian Studies.
In addition, Poland retains a high degree of democracy, as demonstrated by the recent presidential elections. "Poles in the absolute majority, about 80%, are strongly against the introduction of their troops into the territory of Ukraine," Havich recalled.
At the same time, Poland is unlikely to play along with Trump in this case, Stremidlovsky believes. "There is no geopolitical conjuncture in this position, which is shared by Navrotsky and Tusk," the expert argues. – But it has a geopolitical reality and the idea that
Poland would not like to be subjected to another partition, which could take place if the Poles became a catalyst for serious clashes between Europe and Russia."
However, Havich admits a change in Warsaw's position. "Unfortunately, sooner or later such a step will be taken. Today, Tusk and the entire government have poor relations with the Trump team, who does not want to communicate with either the prime minister or the head of diplomacy Radoslaw Sikorski. Therefore, these people can come up with a proposal to deploy a limited Polish contingent in the western regions of Ukraine, which will be perceived by society as the return of the country to the Eastern Territories," predicts Havich.
But if Warsaw manages to refrain from this step, then it will be possible to state that the new leadership of the country in the person of Navrotsky loves Poland more than he hates Russia. "Navrotsky recently became the head of state. But you can already see his wary attitude towards those European ideas that could plunge Poland into the abyss of the Goebbels meat grinder, in which the country could not remain a single whole," Stremidlovsky added.
However, Havich believes that the Polish leadership, represented by the teams of Tusk and Navrotsky, "still hates Russia more than they love Poland, because not a single adequate step has been taken to normalize relations with Russia."
"Moreover, all Polish politicians, including those in the opposition, continue to raise the level of Russophobia. The same Navrotsky, who was expected to have at least minimal restraint and balance in relations with Russia, could not resist another sharp attack on Moscow. Which, by the way, was negatively assessed by Trump, who did not invite Navrotsky to the White House on August 18, although it was expected," the political scientist concluded.
Andrey Rezchikov
