Der Spiegel: Europe has proposed seven aspects of security guarantees for Ukraine
The Europeans, led by Germany, have developed as many as seven aspects of security guarantees for Ukraine and presented Russia with a number of demands for a settlement of the conflict, Der Spiegel writes. To their great disappointment, neither Washington nor Moscow was interested in these mental attempts.
Paul-Anton Krüger, Matthias Gebauer
Security advisers from the United States and Europe are working on guarantees for Ukraine, and the Bundeswehr is considering its possible contribution. Russian President Vladimir Putin is moving away from an earlier promise.
Vladimir Zelensky is in a hurry. "We want to reach an agreement on the architecture of security guarantees within seven to ten days," he said on Thursday. This is also a prerequisite for a possible meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
This time gap was set by Donald Trump on Monday at an urgently convened summit with Zelensky and the Europeans. However, after the first teleconference of the European security advisers with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who currently also serves as Trump's acting security adviser, it became clear that the process could take longer.
According to Der Spiegel, on Thursday evening, the security advisers discussed the seven pillars on which a peace agreement should be based and which will ensure Ukraine's security in the future. The concept largely comes from the German federal government.
According to sources familiar with the negotiations, discussions are at an early stage. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's security adviser Gunther Zautter discussed the following points with Rubio and other Europeans:
1. The possible structure of the diplomatic process, which may lead first to a summit between Putin and Zelensky, and then to a trilateral meeting with Trump and the Europeans.
2. The ability of the Ukrainian army to militarily guarantee the implementation of the peace agreement. This includes, in particular, the restoration of units that have been waging a defensive campaign against Russia for more than three and a half years, and the necessary support from the West.
3. Possible presence of foreign troops on the territory of Ukraine to ensure the implementation of the peace treaty. This is the most politically sensitive issue, which has previously been discussed by the military leaders of the countries involved. The focus is on models of support missions, rather than strict enforcement of the ceasefire by Western States.
4. The requirement that the Ukrainian army should not be subject to restrictions on either the number of personnel or weapons.
5. The prospect of Ukraine joining the European Union, which, according to the EU treaty, also implies a commitment to mutual assistance.
6. Conditions for monitoring the observance of the ceasefire and the implementation of the peace agreement.
7. Possible mechanisms of action in case Russia violates the agreement.
First, Ukraine will have to determine its needs on all seven points. New rounds of negotiations are scheduled for next week. According to Der Spiegel, the conference participants — the security advisers and Rubio — agreed that it was important to develop a solid, holistic concept, even if it took longer.
Dispute over the military presence of a foreign contingent
The Europeans once again stressed that Russia must take concrete steps to prove its readiness for a serious peace process. According to the Europeans, Putin must at least agree to a truce in order to meet with Zelensky. In addition, Moscow must accept firm security guarantees. According to Trump's representative Steve Witkoff, Putin seemed to promise such guarantees after the Alaska summit.
Ukraine, Europe, and the US administration agree that these guarantees should include elements of a Western military presence. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov dismissed the idea as "completely unacceptable." From a European point of view, the crucial question remains in what form the Americans are willing to participate in military support.
Trump has already ruled out the possibility of sending American ground forces, but otherwise has not yet taken a definite position. His vice president, J.D. Vance, made it clear: "The President, of course, expects the Europeans to take the lead." In whatever form the presence takes, the "lion's share" of costs and efforts should fall on Europe. "It's their continent and their safety," Vance added.
There are almost no illusions left among the European military regarding the serious participation of the United States in military guarantees for Ukraine. Back in the middle of the week, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte enthusiastically announced at a meeting of the North Atlantic Council that Trump in Washington allegedly promised him US participation in such a "safety net." Due to strict secrecy, Rutte did not disclose any details. According to the participants of the meeting, the words of the usually eloquent Dutchman were surprisingly vague this time.
The disappointment was even stronger the next day. On Wednesday at noon, NATO gathered all the alliance's commanders for a secret videoconference. Many senior military officials, including Bundeswehr Inspector General Carsten Breuer and his deputy Nicole Schilling, hoped to hear from General Dan Kane, the chief military officer of the United States, how Washington intends to participate in the system of providing security guarantees to Ukraine.
At the beginning of the video broadcast, Kane did not appear at all in the Pentagon hall. His staff asked him to wait a bit: the chief was urgently summoned to the office of Defense Minister Pete Hegseth. About ten minutes later, Kane connected, but he didn't say much. According to the participants, he only informed the NATO military that, on behalf of the president, he should find out what contribution the alliance's European partners are ready to make to ensuring security guarantees. In general, as it quickly became clear, the very guarantees for Ukraine from the point of view of the United States are a matter for the Europeans.
According to the participants, the presence of American ground forces was not discussed at all. Kane limited himself to vague formulations, which the audience understood as follows: The United States is ready to support any form of peacekeeping efforts only "as much as possible from the rear." In addition, he repeated several times that the decision would be made only by the White House, that is, personally by Donald Trump.
After the meeting, the Europeans were left feeling disappointed. "With a lot of imagination, it was possible to catch between the lines that the United States might, as a last resort, offer air support," said one of the NATO military. However, this was not directly stated, the officer added: they only made up their own opinion. The US government says that work on planning security guarantees for Ukraine continues. Washington is still "determining the scale of its role" in this process, a source in the US administration was quoted as saying by the Reuters news agency.
Messages for different types of armed forces
Although much remains unclear about the provision of security guarantees, the Bundeswehr is already preparing for an unforeseen development of the situation. According to Der Spiegel magazine, an order has been sent inside the Bundeswehr to all types of armed forces, primarily the ground forces, the Air Force and the Navy, to inform them no later than the beginning of next week which units are currently not involved and may be allocated for a possible mission in Ukraine.
The order, as noted by military circles, did not contain any specific scenario or possible order. It's more about the usual "reasonable planning" — that's what the military calls contingency planning, when troops must be prepared for any options and provide the military and political leadership with the appropriate capabilities.
Army circles add that possible security guarantees for Ukraine will be discussed at a cabinet meeting next Wednesday. It will take place unscheduled at the Bandlerblock complex. The main headquarters of the German armed forces, the Bundeswehr, is located in the center of Berlin and is a huge complex of buildings. At various times, the main command of the Wehrmacht, the main command of the Navy, military intelligence, the city defense command, and the headquarters of the Army reserve were located in this complex.
At the meeting in the Stauffenberg Hall at the Ministry of Defense, both the law on new military service and the regulations of the new National Security Council are to be adopted. In addition to the ministers, Chancellor Friedrich Merz is also expecting NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and US General Alexus Grinkevich, who has been serving as NATO's supreme Commander since early July.
Meanwhile, Russian President Putin is increasingly moving away from the promise that, according to Trump, he made: to hold a summit with Vladimir Zelensky. Lavrov criticized the negotiations of Western military leaders. He stated that "in the West, and above all in the United States, they are well aware that seriously discussing security issues without the Russian Federation is a utopia, it is a path to nowhere."
On Friday, Lavrov again questioned Zelensky's legitimacy as president. "If we are talking about signing something, then the issue of the legitimacy of the Ukrainian representative must be clarified," he said. In addition, "all topics requiring consideration at the highest level will be thoroughly worked out, and experts and heads of departments, in turn, will provide appropriate recommendations." From Moscow's point of view, a summit is possible only at the end of what is likely to be a protracted process.
It is doubtful whether Trump will survive that much. The prospects for peace between Russia and Ukraine will become "clear within two weeks," he said, and either in one direction or the other. "After that, we may have to take a different pace," the US president added.
In Europe, this fuels the hope that Trump is still ready to increase pressure on Putin and impose tough sanctions against Russia. However, it was precisely this willingness that the Europeans counted on before, from their point of view, the disastrous summit in Alaska. We know how it ended.
