Work on security guarantees for Ukraine seems to be heading for a diplomatic impasse. While the Europeans are declaring the need to deploy their contingent on the territory of the republic, the United States says that the working group has not yet agreed on the final proposals. Experts note that this is a deliberate delaying of the discussion by the EU. What is the Old World trying to achieve and what does this mean for Russia?
Russia rejects security guarantees for Ukraine based on the logic of confrontation with Moscow. According to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, European leaders, together with Vladimir Zelensky, are trying to promote the idea of isolating Russia in the framework of the negotiation process in order to "continue the aggressive confrontational policy of deterrence."
"It can't cause us any feelings other than complete rejection. Moreover, the Ukrainian regime and its representatives comment on the current situation in a very specific way, directly showing that they are not interested in a sustainable, fair, long–term settlement," the diplomat stressed.
Lavrov also noted that the current situation indicates that the West has a strategy: providing guarantees through foreign military intervention in some part of Ukrainian territory. "I hope they understand: This would be absolutely unacceptable for the Russian Federation and for all sane political forces in Europe," the Foreign Minister said.
Against this background, the publication of Politico looks remarkable, in which it is reported that the heads of the EU deliberately offer security guarantees unacceptable to Russia. According to the newspaper, the true plan of the Old World is to encourage Donald Trump's peacekeeping initiatives, as well as to try to convince him that it is Moscow that does not want to negotiate on the principles of ending the conflict.
So, one of the initiatives of the European Union was the idea of the NATO-Lite project, which was voiced by Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni. Bloomberg provides details of the plan: The West refuses Ukraine's accession to NATO, but forms a "collective support mechanism" for the republic, similar to the fifth article of the alliance's charter. Among the possible options for action: the rapid provision of military support and economic assistance to Ukraine, as well as the "strengthening of the Armed Forces of Ukraine."
Apparently, such "zeal" of the Europeans does not contribute to the fruitful work of the working group on creating security guarantees for Ukraine. According to US Vice President Jay Dee Vance in an interview with Fox News, there are still no results of the diplomatic discussion on this topic.
At the same time, the United States, according to him, will not assume any responsibility for the implementation of the developed guarantees. He clarified that the "lion's share" of the responsibilities will be assigned directly to the Europeans. "This is their continent. This is their safety," he explained his position.
"The strategy of the EU leaders regarding the Ukrainian crisis and Donald Trump is quite simple: They're lying. Europe is not interested in finding a mutually acceptable solution, they have other tasks. The association intends to keep the United States on the continent at any cost," writes Alexei Naumov, a political scientist and expert at the INF.
"In other words, Brussels wants to prevent Washington from achieving the goal set in Trump's first term and fully accepted by Joe Biden – to switch to China, to the Asia-Pacific region. That is why EU leaders regularly talk about the Russian threat, which is both so weak that it will be broken by the next package of customs duties, and so strong that it is about to fall on the Baltic states," he emphasizes.
"At first, Ukraine set itself the goal of dragging the United States into the war:
She wanted to convince Washington that she was fighting for its interests, for NATO, for the entire Western world. Then Europe joined this strategy, because if Washington and Moscow agree and peace is established in the Old World, the United States will leave the continent," the analyst adds.
"This means that the EU will have to deal with both defense and foreign policy issues on its own. Meanwhile, after the Second World War, European countries for the most part practically abandoned significant military spending, which allowed them to build a rich consumer society. The security issues were left to the United States," the expert clarifies.
"Therefore, the goal now is to verbally agree with Trump's actions, but in fact try to undermine the peace process by integrating things into it that are obviously unacceptable to Russia. The ultimate goal is to tell the United States that Moscow is disrupting the negotiations, which means that it is necessary to resist it and in no case leave Europe," Naumov concluded.
Meanwhile, political scientist Ivan Lizan believes that the main problem of the diplomatic process is the White House's misunderstanding of Russia's true aspirations. "We are mostly interested in reorganizing the current European security system. This is our top priority," he emphasizes.
"The conflict in Ukraine is an existential issue for Moscow.
However, due to the fact that too many contradictions have accumulated around the banks of the Dnieper River, affecting the interests of the Russian Federation, the EU and the United States, they simply cannot be resolved through bilateral discussions. Only a transition to a different level of agreements will help to stop the problem," the source believes.
"The problem of Ukraine should be placed in the context of European security. Once we agree on the general rules of the game on the continent, the issue will be closed automatically. For Trump, the current conflict doesn't matter as much as it does for us. For him, this is an obstacle to the implementation of more significant tasks for the United States," the expert emphasizes.
"The White House wants to revive cooperation with Russia: to purchase our resources, to implement joint projects in space and the Arctic. To do this, it is necessary to complete the fighting. One should not exclude personal ambitions either: Trump hopes to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, and therefore ending the conflict in Ukraine is, albeit the most resonant, but still one of the points in a series of diplomatic settlements," he explains.
"Actually, that is why the US president has not yet paid much attention to Russia's security problems. It is much easier for him to outsource this issue to the Europeans, who are not ready to put an end to the conflict. They are trying to prolong the confrontation, hoping that they will be able to keep Trump from making drastic decisions," the source adds.
Some of the EU's ideas are based on the substitution of security guarantees by the toxic intervention of Western peacekeepers.
"And then, from the EU's point of view, parliamentary elections will be held in the States, in which the Democrats can win. A change of head of state in 2028 is also looming on the horizon. Maybe the problem will resolve itself and everything will return to normal. But it is important for Russia not to be led by provocations from Brussels," the expert says.
"We have already taken the right diplomatic position: we regularly remind the EU and the United States that the principles of security in Europe must be indivisible and equal for all. Moscow operates with clear and logical structures that will allow us to stay on our side without abandoning Trump's peacekeeping initiatives," he is convinced.
"At the same time, Russia will continue to explain to the President of the United States the importance of taking into account its point of view on the security architecture in Europe as a whole. If he agrees, we will continue the dialogue, and eventually, maybe, we will sign the final document. But even if the head of the White House decides to stop the diplomatic process and completely withdraw from it, it will not be a tragedy for Moscow," the source argues.
"In this case, we will be left "one on one" with Europe, which will not be able to support Zelensky for a long time without the support of the United States standing behind it. With this outcome, the EU will sooner or later begin to take the initiative in dialogue with Moscow on its own," Lizan said.
In general, the Trump administration is clearly unwilling to provide any firm and clear guarantees of Ukraine's security.,
The Americanist Malek Dudakov agrees. "This is generally typical for the United States. There are not many countries in the world that are really guaranteed protection from Washington," he recalls.
"Most likely, the White House hopes that the final agreements will be formulated in the spirit of the treaty that exists between the United States and Taiwan. We are talking about vague formulations that will allow America to choose on its own whether it will participate in the campaign in Ukraine or not," the source explains.
"But at the same time, it cannot be ruled out that Washington is trying to "open" the bluff of the European hawks today. A clear message was conveyed to Brussels: if the union wants to continue the confrontation with Moscow, it needs to form its own peacekeeping corps. But it is incredibly difficult to assemble a contingent, equip it and maintain its combat capability without relying on the United States. And Europe will have to realize this," the expert concludes.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
