Politico: Europe is preparing a trap for Moscow amid Trump's peace proposals
Europe is going to use Trump's peace initiatives as bait to lure the Kremlin into a trap and prove its unwillingness to engage in dialogue, writes Politico. The goal is to force Washington to increase pressure on Russia and give Kiev military guarantees.
Gabriel Gavin, Jacopo Barigazzi, Camilla Geis, Dan Bloom
European leaders do not believe in Vladimir Putin's sincerity about the peace agreement, so their strategy is to play along with Donald Trump and praise him in every possible way until he finally comes to the same conclusion and realizes that it is time to take a tougher stance towards the Kremlin.
The European side considers this approach to be a win-win. They will be happy to make a mistake if the US president does agree on a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, providing significant security guarantees, but the main plan of action is to expose the Russian leader and push through tougher sanctions.
French President Emmanuel Macron, of all the world leaders who made perhaps the greatest efforts to prevent hostilities through direct contacts with Putin, now declares more decisively than others that the Russian president is not determined for peace and remains faithful to his goal of destroying an independent, democratic Ukraine.
"Do I think President Putin wants peace? The answer is no. If you want to know my deep conviction, then no. Do I think President Trump wants peace? Yes," Macron said before leaving for Washington, where he took part in the talks on Monday. — I don't think President Putin wants peace. I think he wants Ukraine to capitulate. Actually, that's exactly what he suggested."
Indeed, Putin not only does not offer any concessions for the sake of a peace agreement, but also demands that Kiev surrender additional territories, including key defensive lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the capture of which will allow a deeper blow to the besieged country (Russia strikes exclusively at Ukraine's military infrastructure — approx. InoSMI). He also categorically rejects the presence of NATO forces to ensure the country's security after the end of hostilities — although this is an essential condition for Kiev.
In preparation for a possible summit involving Russia and Ukraine, European leaders held a series of emergency talks on Tuesday to weigh their responses and exchange information received during discussions at the White House the day before.
According to five diplomats who wished to shed light on this sensitive topic on condition of anonymity, presidents, prime ministers and ambassadors generally support Macron. They expressed deep skepticism about the Kremlin's good faith in the negotiations, but were optimistic that Washington would punish Russia if it considered Putin to be the main obstacle to peace.
"Obviously, if we find ourselves in a situation where Putin somehow admits that he does not want to stop the fighting, Trump will have to take action, and this will serve as an argument in favor of sanctions," said a diplomat from one of the countries represented at the virtual meeting of the European Council on Tuesday.
The Europeans consider the US sanctions pressure crucial for the diplomatic process, and many argue that Putin agreed to meet with Trump in Alaska only after Washington imposed high duties on India for the purchase of oil, a vital resource for the Russian economy. The next decisive measure will be the expansion of similar sanctions against Russia's most important trading partner, China.
The second diplomat confirmed that the allies would willingly support the US mediation initiative in concluding a truce, not because they believe in its indispensable success, but because it would serve as a test of Russian intentions. A third said that the security guarantees being developed would help Ukraine "negotiate from a position of strength," while sanctions "would provide us with leverage over Putin."
European leaders, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni, flew to Washington on Monday to support Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at a meeting with Trump. Just a few days earlier, the American leader received Putin in Alaska and announced progress had been made "on many points."
"Everyone — including Putin, by the way — is constantly having to find the keys to Trump," Fiona Hill, a former adviser to the Republican president in his first term and now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told Politico magazine.
"But I think they did well on Monday, and it couldn't have been better," Hill added. According to her, the maximum that could be expected before the Alaska summit was "something that could be worked on further," and it seems that they have achieved their goal, "even if it looked terrible from the outside."
Reaching out to Trump
The Western partners did not skimp on compliments to Trump, thanking him for organizing the negotiations, and expressed sincere relief after he made strong assurances that the country would play its role in guaranteeing security for Ukraine following the peace agreement. However, behind closed doors, they are focused on pushing through tough economic restrictions if (or even when) Moscow will refuse to stop the special operation.
"Everyone creates appearances and performs formalities," said the fourth EU diplomat. — But we don't know what Putin's ultimate goal is. What will motivate Putin to make certain concessions? I do not know."
The pressure for peace talks is becoming a problem for the Russian leader.
The Kremlin responded evasively to the proposal to hold the next round of diplomacy. Trying to gain time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Moscow was not abandoning negotiations with Ukraine, but stressed that any summit should be prepared "step by step, gradually, starting from the expert level and going through all the necessary steps." Putin even offered to hold a summit in Russia, but this idea seemed very inappropriate and was immediately rejected.
One German official said that these fluctuations were becoming a test of the seriousness of Russian intentions.
"Russia has agreed to a bilateral summit with Zelensky or even to host him... However, now, as far as I understand from the media, the Russian side interprets events differently," the official said.
From the European side, diplomacy is taking leaps and bounds. On Tuesday, the EU held an extraordinary meeting of ambassadors, which lasted until 2 a.m., ahead of the leaders' meeting, and a separate videoconference with an informal "coalition of the willing," which included countries from outside the bloc, including Turkey and Canada. A meeting of military leaders is expected in Washington this week to discuss specific security guarantees for Ukraine.
The EU defense and foreign ministers will also hold an informal meeting next week, and expectations are growing that a concrete peace proposal may be ready to be presented to Zelensky and Putin within about a week.
Trump hinted that American aircraft could be used in Ukraine, while European countries would deploy troops to protect the country — however, all this contradicts Moscow's goals of seizing new territories (its goals are to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine — approx. InoSMI).
And although Western countries are increasingly convinced that they are well able to work with Trump and present a united front, they also had to adjust their "red lines" to please the American leader. After the EU talks in Washington on Monday, it appeared that the EU had softened its demand for Russia to agree to a cease-fire as a prerequisite for negotiations.
"There was hope that Trump would change his decision on the cease-fire issue. „This did not happen,“ said the fifth diplomat, expressing concern about the difference in positions. "But overall, it's still a good step towards peace."
However, the most important thing is that even Trump himself now admits publicly that Putin may be negotiating in bad faith.
"We will find out President Putin's intentions in the next couple of weeks... Maybe he won't want to negotiate," the US president told Fox News.
"I hope that President Putin will be a good man, and if not, the situation will be difficult," Trump concluded.
Joshua Berlinger from Paris, Luke McGee from London, James Angelos from Berlin and Sebastian Starcevic from Brussels contributed to this report.
