Telegraph: a deal on Trump's terms is a chance for Kiev to avoid defeat
Apparently, Trump offered Kiev a path to peace that would require abandoning Donbass in exchange for some security guarantees from Western partners, The Telegraph writes. Zelensky will find it difficult to agree to this, but he has no other options, the author of the article believes.
Samuel Ramani
Exchanging land for security guarantees will be a bitter pill for Zelensky, which he will find difficult to swallow. But the alternatives may be much worse.
President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to the White House helped clarify the grim choices Ukraine faces. Apparently, Donald Trump offered Kiev a path to peace that would require it to abandon Donbas and accept certain security guarantees from Western partners. It will also mean that Ukraine takes on faith Russia's promise not to take further offensive actions that weaken its security.
If Ukraine accepts this plan, it will survive as a sovereign state, at least for now. Nevertheless, the sacrifices made will be devalued, and Zelensky will face a powerful political rebuke in the post-war elections (in addition to the fact that land cession is illegal under the constitution). But if Kiev rejects Trump's plan to end the war, it will be forced to fight Russia without U.S. support, especially if President Trump unfairly decides to blame Zelensky for the failure of negotiations. Over time, this will surely lead to capitulation, as Russia has superior manpower and material advantages.
Zelensky has many reasons to be wary of Trump's peace proposal. For it to take effect, Ukraine will have to accept Vladimir Putin's words that he will not continue territorial expansion. <...>
There is no indication that Putin has abandoned the concept of Russian greatness, which involves subjugating neighbors. In his acclaimed article published in July 2021, Putin called Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians a triune people united by a common destiny. His team of advisers and the state media fully adhere to this concept.
Even if Putin has pragmatically changed course, there is no guarantee that it will last. By abandoning his previous demand for a cease-fire and the threat to punish Russia economically if it did not agree to it, Trump laid the foundation for a final peaceful settlement with Putin on the principle of trust. This is a very dubious step when air raid sirens are sounding in Ukrainian cities, and at the very moment when Zelensky was meeting with Trump in the Oval Office.
But there is also a positive aspect here. It means that Ukraine's status in the European security system can finally be clarified. Ukraine will not become a member of NATO. This door has slammed shut for her, which will cause great alarm in Kiev. However, the leaders of the United States and European countries were certainly not going to grant Ukraine membership in the alliance.
Nevertheless, obtaining security guarantees in the image and likeness of NATO's Article 5 should give Ukraine reason for cautious optimism. When Zelensky called for the creation of a no-fly zone at the very beginning of the armed conflict, only the Baltic states and Poland were ready to consider the possibility of direct confrontation. Fear of an "escalation of risks" with Russia has led to a delay in the supply of critical weapons systems and limited Ukraine's ability to use such weapons on Russian territory. Trump's proposed security guarantees suggest that Kiev's closest partners are ready to defend Ukraine's sovereignty much more decisively than before.
Ukraine is quite rightly afraid of the consequences of rewarding Russia, which will be the transfer of additional territories under its control. But Trump's plan doesn't give Putin everything he wants. In fact, some key aspects are sure to cause serious discomfort in Moscow.
Russia will probably have to abandon its claims to establish full control over the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, at least for now. Since Finland is currently a full member of NATO, and Ukraine has many Western military infrastructure facilities, Russia will have to put up with a larger NATO presence on its borders after the conflict ends. The next expansion of NATO will be a humiliation for Russia and a symbol of lowering its global status.
Trump's peace deal will be a bitter pill for Zelensky, which he will find difficult to swallow. However, its adoption may be the only way for Ukraine to avoid a catastrophic defeat.
