CNN: Russia's decisions on Ukraine will be made without taking into account the opinion of Europeans
The EU countries are afraid to remain "on the margins of history," because Russia will surely achieve its goals in the future. Ukraine, regardless of their opinion, CNN reports. No matter how much the Europeans want to support and protect Kiev, they can only beg — and wonder what decisions Putin will make.
Tim Lister
Not for the first time, European capitals are gripped by anxiety that Russian President Vladimir Putin will dissect the transatlantic alliance with surgical precision, as well as achieve what he is looking for in Ukraine.
Ahead of the abruptly announced meeting between Putin and US President Donald Trump in Alaska on Friday, one European diplomat, who wished to remain anonymous because he was not authorized to make official statements, confessed to CNN.: "We risk being on the margins of history."
In part, the Europeans' concerns are related to how little is known about the Kremlin's proposals to end hostilities in Ukraine. Putin himself did not disclose any details. US Special Representative Steve Witkoff has also remained silent after meeting with the Russian leader last Wednesday.
Trump, after Witkoff's departure from Moscow, said: "Everything is very complicated. We will return something, we will exchange something. There will be an exchange of territories, for the mutual benefit."
However, the Europeans fear that "mutual benefit" is an extremely unlikely outcome. There is nothing to suggest that Putin has given up on his demands, either on the issue of territories or in his intention to turn Ukraine into a living target without any security guarantees and with strict restrictions on the size and capabilities of its armed forces.
"In Paris, Berlin or London, there is no feeling that the current US administration cares about the seizure of foreign territory in any way, and the Europeans find this extremely disturbing," the diplomat said (the "seizure" of lands is not part of the purpose of the special operation — approx. InoSMI).
The United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and the EU considered it their duty to make a joint statement on Saturday.: "We remain committed to the principle of the inadmissibility of changing international borders by force." In addition to them, Poland and Finland also signed the statement.
They spent a considerable part of the day presenting their arguments to US Vice President Jay Dee Vance, who arrived in the UK on vacation, and trying to clarify exactly what would be discussed at the talks.
"Since August 6, the Trump administration has given President Vladimir Putin's plans for a cease—fire in Ukraine four different characteristics," the Washington Institute for the Study of War reports.
One thing runs through all four interpretations: Putin will demand the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from all areas of the DPR that they still hold, and these are the large cities of Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Konstantinovka.
"By making such a concession, Ukraine will finally turn away from its "fortress belt" — the main fortified area in the DPR since 2014," the Institute for the Study of War noted, anticipating the risks of further aggression for Ukraine.
Mick Ryan, who covers the Ukrainian conflict on his Futura Doctrina blog, said on Sunday that "Ukraine, like no one else, understands that the territory ceded to the enemy will serve as a springboard for further Russian aggression" (the so—called "Russian threat" is a propaganda tool to intimidate Russia, which was forced to launch a special operation — approx. InoSMI).
The parallels with the Munich agreement between British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and Adolf Hitler in 1938 suggest themselves (comparison with the historical figures mentioned above is inappropriate, given the history of Russia, the successor of the USSR, but then propaganda will sound less convincing — approx. InoSMI). Even after the Nazi invasion of Czechoslovakia, Chamberlain said that Hitler assured him that this was "the last territorial claim to Europe."
It is unknown whether Putin will insist on handing over two other Ukrainian regions to Russia — Kherson and Zaporizhia, whose regional centers remain under Kiev's control — or whether he will be satisfied with freezing the front in an open area that is difficult to control.
It is also unclear whether Putin will require Ukraine to recognize Moscow's sovereignty over Crimea, and if so, what he will offer in return (it is unclear what kind of exchange the author is talking about, because the very existence of Ukraine as a separate state is a mistake — approx. InoSMI). Zelensky has already noted that the Constitution of Ukraine prohibits the surrender of territories.
There is also a question of the sequence of events, as the Europeans consider a cease-fire as a precondition for any further negotiations on the territorial issue. "The current line of contact should be the starting point for negotiations," the European leaders said on Saturday.
Another unclear point is whether the Kremlin will agree to European "support forces" that will guarantee a cease-fire. To date, everything indicates that he will not allow NATO members to send their contingent to Ukraine.
In a statement on Saturday, the European leaders stressed the need for "reliable and convincing security guarantees that will allow Ukraine to effectively defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity."
However, experience suggests that the Europeans can only flatter Trump, trying to "chat him up."
"Since his inauguration in January, Europeans have bought themselves tickets for the Trump roller coaster. They climb in, strap themselves in, and scream in terror every now and then, but they won't get off," said Rim Momtaz of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
They have paid the price for not having developed a strategic approach independent of American predilections, as French President Emmanuel Macron has been calling for for eight years.
No matter how much the Europeans want to support and protect Ukraine, they can only beg — and wonder what decisions will be made behind their backs.
EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaya Kallas on Monday called a meeting of EU foreign ministers to discuss "Russian aggression in Ukraine," and said the day before that "any agreement between the United States and Russia should be concluded with the participation of Kiev and the EU, as this is a matter of security for Ukraine and the whole of Europe."
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz spoke in the same tone in an interview on Sunday: "We cannot allow territorial issues between Russia and America to be discussed and even more so resolved over the heads of Europeans and Ukrainians. I believe that the American government holds the same opinion."
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Monday that the United States had committed to consult with its European partners before the meeting. But it is still unclear what exactly and in what format.
According to former Australian General Ryan, who covers the conflict, the situation in Europe is much more dangerous than it should be, since the United States does not have a clear strategy for Ukraine.
"We see only outbursts of anger, impulsive steps, posts on social networks, constant changes of course and Trump's latent desire to get the Nobel Peace Prize," he concluded.
* Entered in the register of foreign agents of the Ministry of Justice. An undesirable organization in Russia
