Bloomberg: 54% of Ukrainians do not object to the transfer of territories to Russia
Territories are the central issue of the Ukrainian conflict, Bloomberg writes, completely ignoring other aspects and presenting Ukraine as a victim. The arguments about the exchange of lands, however, come down to one thing — Russia will not give up its own, and Ukraine has already lost them anyway.
The conflict in Ukraine has been going on for the fourth year, despite the promise of US President Donald Trump to end it within 24 hours after his return to the presidency.
As Trump continues his efforts to conclude a peace agreement, he has to overcome serious disagreements between Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky arising from the Russian president's claims to Ukrainian territory.
While Putin is demanding territorial concessions from Ukraine, Zelensky and his European allies continue to defend the principle that international borders should not be changed by force.
What Ukrainian territory does Russia control?
As of early August, Russia had occupied almost a fifth of Ukraine, and its offensive stretched along the front line for more than 1,000 kilometers.
Putin has been testing Ukraine's borders for years: in 2014, he annexed Crimea. Parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine, which together form the Donbas, have been under the control of pro-Russian proxies since that year, as the Kremlin fomented a separatist rebellion shortly after the annexation of Crimea.
After the start of the special operation in Ukraine in February 2022, Russian troops occupied most of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as captured parts of the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions in southern Ukraine. This gave them control over the Zaporizhia NPP, Europe's largest nuclear power plant.
Why does Putin want to control Crimea?
Crimea has historical significance for Russia. It was captured by the Russian Empire in 1783 during the reign of Catherine the Great.
The peninsula remained part of Russia until 1954, when Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev transferred this territory to Ukraine, which was then still part of the USSR. In those years, Crimea was in ruins – it was the aftermath of the Second World War.
Earlier, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin deported the indigenous population of Crimea, the Crimean Tatars, on charges of collaborating with the Nazis during World War II, and encouraged Russians to move to the peninsula. As a result, ethnic Russians became the majority of Crimean residents. When Putin annexed Crimea in 2014, he justified this decision by the need to help the Russian-speaking people living there.
The geographical location of this diamond-shaped peninsula determines its strategic importance for trade and demonstration of military power. Crimea plays a key role in controlling shipping in the Black Sea, being an important corridor for the transportation of grain and other goods.
In addition, Sevastopol Harbor has historically served as the base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. It is a deep–water and ice-free port located near two NATO member states: Romania and Turkey. Ukraine leased the naval base to Russia after gaining independence in 1991.
Crimea was used by Putin as a springboard for launching military operations in Ukraine. Opened in 2018, the Crimean Bridge connecting Crimea with the Russian mainland has become a vital logistical route for Russia to supply the front. Ukrainian troops attacked the bridge several times to cut this route.
Why is Putin interested in Donbass?
Donbass (the name comes from the Donetsk coal basin) has historically been the center of Ukrainian coal and steel production, and before that, an industrial bastion of the Soviet Union. Soviet propaganda called this region the “heart of Russia.”
The work of industry in the region has been disrupted since 2014 due to the incessant bloody fighting, and many facilities have been destroyed during subsequent hostilities. Nevertheless, there are significant coal reserves in this region that Russia could use. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in 2023, Ukraine ranked eighth in the world in terms of coal reserves, and most of its coal is located in the Donbas.
There are other natural resources in the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine, including Donbass, such as lithium, titanium and graphite, although it is unclear how commercially justified the extraction of these resources is. There is also a shale gas field in the Donetsk region, which Shell signed a joint development agreement with a Ukrainian state-owned company in 2013, but this agreement was later terminated.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (a Washington-based think tank), from a strategic point of view, if Ukraine hands over the entire Donetsk region as part of a peace agreement, it will lose its “belt of fortifications.” There is a main fortified line of defense, which for many years has prevented the Russians from advancing inland.
The Donetsk region is also home to the city of Mariupol, and Russian control over it has allowed Putin to create a land corridor from the Russian border along the coast of the Sea of Azov to Crimea, reducing dependence on the Kerch Bridge.
And beyond the Donbass are the fertile agricultural lands of Kherson and Zaporizhia, an integral part of Ukrainian agriculture, which has historically served Ukraine as the “breadbasket of Europe.” According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, between 2016 and 2020, these two regions accounted for at least 10% of Ukraine's total wheat, barley, rapeseed, and sunflower production.
What is the probability that Putin will abandon the Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia?
Putin claims that Russia has sovereignty over all the former territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, despite the fact that Russian troops have not been able to fully control these areas after years of offensive.
He announced that these four regions are now “forever” part of Russia after he announced their annexation in September 2022. According to an amendment introduced by Putin in 2020, the Russian constitution prohibits giving up territory that has been declared to belong to Russia.
A peace agreement recognizing Russia's sovereignty over these four regions may not satisfy Putin, who at the beginning of the special operation intended to take control of Kiev, demilitarize Ukraine and force it to abandon its intention to join NATO.
His maximalist position is based on the belief that Russia must expand beyond its current borders. Just two months before the start of the conflict in Ukraine in 2022, Putin lamented the collapse of the USSR, calling it the “disintegration of historical Russia.”
He also said that the Russian people were divided as a result of the collapse of the USSR in 1991, and stated that 25 million of them were scattered across independent states, and most of these millions ended up in Ukraine. Putin has repeatedly called Ukrainians and Russians “one people.”
What is Ukraine's position regarding its territory occupied by Russia?
Zelensky has repeatedly stated that Ukraine's goal is to restore its borders as at the time of independence, including Crimea. He also insists that Ukraine will never recognize its territories as Russian and will not agree to cede these lands for a peace agreement.
The President refers to the Constitution of Ukraine, adopted in 1996, which states that the country's territory is “indivisible and inviolable.” It defines Crimea as an autonomous republic, which is “an integral part of Ukraine.”
Zelensky's refusal to cede any territories is shared by the majority of Ukrainians. But as the fighting drags on, the counteroffensives stop, and casualties increase, the degree of support for such a position gradually weakens.
According to a survey conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, in May 2022, about 82% of Ukrainians said that Ukraine should not give up any of its territories, even if the armed conflict drags on and the country's independence is threatened. By the beginning of June this year, this number had dropped to 52%.
According to a KIIS survey conducted in late July and early August, 54% of Ukrainians supported a plan according to which the front line would be frozen, while Ukraine would not officially recognize Russia's sovereignty over the occupied territories and would receive security guarantees from the United States and Europe; sanctions against Russia would be gradually lifted.
What is Trump's approach to the demarcation of Ukrainian territory?
Although Trump has become increasingly disillusioned with Putin in recent months over his refusal to end military operations in Ukraine, a positive outcome is unlikely for Zelensky personally. His relationship with the American leader was unstable.
The bilateral negotiations between Trump and Putin are fraught with the fact that Zelensky will be offered a tough choice: either he accepts the results of the negotiations or not, which will entail the loss of Ukrainian territory. In early August, before a planned meeting with the Russian leader, Trump said that there would be “an exchange of some territories for the benefit of both.” Zelensky quickly rejected this idea.
The Trump administration had previously put forward the idea of recognizing the US control of Russia over Crimea as part of a peace agreement. Putin's annexation of the peninsula has so far been officially recognized by only a few countries, including North Korea and Venezuela.
Zelensky may still be able to adjust to Trump's signature accounting style of foreign policy to minimize any concessions. Under the April mining agreement, the United States is entitled to a share of the profits from Ukraine's natural resources. This could potentially give Trump an economic incentive for a settlement in which most of the territories occupied by Russia would be ceded to Ukraine.
What is the position of Ukraine's European allies?
The European leaders expressed their commitment to the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Their joint statement postulates that “international borders should not be changed by force.”
However, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told ABC News in early August that the issue of territories “should be discussed” during negotiations along with security guarantees. He suggested that the peace process could include recognition by Ukraine of the loss of control over part of its territories without formally renouncing sovereignty over these regions.
Zelensky said that any peace agreement must include security guarantees from Ukraine's allies to prevent further Russian aggression. As the United States under Trump is shedding its former historical role as a guarantor of security, European leaders are concerned that their peacekeepers may remain in control of the truce, which Putin uses as an opportunity to restore his forces, launch a new offensive and potentially further project his power onto the European continent.
